Text: Shi Qiping
In early 2020, many experts had judged that the probability of conflict in the Taiwan Strait is very high, and it has finally been through it smoothly. But this does not mean that the situation has stabilized. On the contrary, because all relevant energy is still accumulating, you might as well conduct in-depth inspections from the following three angles:
(I) The background of time, there are two critical moments: (1) In 2021, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China; (2) In 2022, the Communist Party of China will hold the 20th National Congress and the leadership team will change. In summary, it is the sensitive "point" between the situation in the Taiwan Strait and cross-strait relations.
(II) The spatial background is a great game where the two global powers are in the Western Pacific, and the focus is even more concentrated in Taiwan. The United States has launched the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy since the Obama era. After Trump came to power, he extended his strategic coverage from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, called the "Indo-Pacific". The military part is to deploy 60% of the US global military power in the Western Pacific, with the aim of making strong "intervention" the four seas (Yellow Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea) at the entrance of China. The support points for intervention are Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the second island chain, Guam and Darwin Port in Australia.
With the continued strong investment of China and the United States, the arms of both sides have risen to a critical "point" where collisions can break out at any time.
In addition to launching comprehensive military reforms, China is committed to betting on military construction and strengthening the anti-intervention and regional resistance capabilities of the naval, air and rocket forces. The goal is to exclude the US military's intervention capabilities from the first island chain or even the second island chain. At the same time, air defense identification zones were established in the East China Sea, normal cruises were carried out in the Diaoyu Islands, Sansha City was established in the South China Sea, and island construction was carried out to carry out island-circling cruises to Taiwan.
can be seen that with the continued strong investment of China and the United States, the arms of both sides have risen to a critical "point" where collisions can break out at any time.
(III) The internal situation in Taiwan. is divided into two aspects. One is that the opportunity for "harmony" is becoming increasingly slim. Under the two rule of the Democratic Progressive Party, it has made every effort to promote "de-Sinicization" education and control the media's discourse power to create a sense of "anti-China and anti-China". The Taiwanese people's recognition of China has declined rapidly, and their tendency towards "Taiwan independence" is becoming increasingly obvious. At the same time, the Kuomintang not only shrank its energy and its influence declined, but it even began to vaguely shake its position on "unification and independence". For Beijing, we cannot rely on the people of Taiwan, nor on the Kuomintang, and of course we cannot rely on the ruling authorities of Taiwan.
Under the two Democratic Progressive Party's rule, Taiwanese people's recognition of China has declined rapidly, and their tendency towards "Taiwan independence" is becoming increasingly obvious.
On the other hand, with the support of the United States, Taiwan's military power has rapidly changed from a defensive to a both offensive and defensive type, and the threat to the southeastern coast of the mainland and even inland is increasing day by day.
On the one hand, there is no hope of "harmony" approaching, and on the other hand, the military threats it faces are increasing. This is the "point" for the Beijing authorities to face the future situation in Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait.
sensitive points, critical points, and pressure points, thus forming the main connotation of the situation in the Taiwan Strait 2021. The three "points" gather together, and the treacherous and tense situation can be imagined.
Under this understanding, it may be easier for us to interpret the relevant deployments made by the Beijing authorities in response to the current situation:
(I) President of the People's Republic of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping signed the "Central Military Commission Order No. 1 of 2021" and issued a "training mobilization order" to the People's Liberation Army, requiring the entire army to "prepare for war" and ensure that "waiting for war at all times and being able to fight at any time." The mobilization order emphasized that the entire army should carry forward the "fighting spirit of not fearing hardship and not fearing death", hone the fighting will, hone the strong skills, and complete the mission and tasks of the new era to welcome the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China.
(II) The amendment of the National Defense Law. On December 26, 2020, President Xi Jinping issued a presidential order, officially announcing that the "National Defense Law of the People's Republic of China" has been amended and passed by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.The revised National Defense Law defines the general scope in Chapter 2, adding the concepts of "severance" and "development interests" to the original definition scope of "the state conducts military activities to prevent and resist aggression, stop armed subversion, and defend national sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity and security." In other words, as long as there is a situation in the future that "split" or affects "development interests", it will constitute a requirement for the People's Liberation Army to launch military operations.
(III) Legislation of the National Law. In late December 2020, during the regular press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the Mainland, Xinhua News Agency reporters asked whether the mainland was enacting the "National Unification Law", and spokesperson Zhu Fenglian did not deny it. It is generally speculated that this method is under development. If necessary, the "National Unification Law" can be completed by lightning at any time, just like the Hong Kong National Security Law.
Early in 2005, the mainland had formulated the "Anti-Secession Law", which, as the name suggests, is based on "anti-independence and anti-secession". But the reality is that Taiwan will not publicly swear to "Taiwan independence", so this law has lost its focus on the Taiwanese authorities not engaging in "formal Taiwan independence" but engaging in "substantive Taiwan independence". In such a situation, the National Law is formulated as a supplement. The National Unification Law is to promote unification, which is nothing more than two means of peace and force. If "harmony" is hopeless, then according to the National Defense Law - if it affects the country's "development interests", military activities can be carried out, and the legal system is improved to completely resolve the Taiwan issue.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait in 2021 should be more worthy of attention than 2020.
(The author is a famous commentator of Phoenix TV)
