The days of the chip industry's glory in the early stages of the epidemic have passed, and the long winter is approaching step by step. Is the great recession of the global chip industry really coming?
Regardless of whether global chips enter a recession period, as demand and prices decline, chip giants are the first to be hit in the capital market, and their stock prices have suffered a soul-stirring blow.
Intel and AMD share prices hit a new low this year, with a market value of 100 billion yuan to ashes
In the past, Intel was the well-deserved chip king. Its CPU market share in PC computers once reached 80%, occupying a dominant position for more than 30 years. However, the current financial data and previous financial indicators have declined to varying degrees. Regarding the reasons for the decline in performance, Intel's financial director Zinsner said that small and medium-sized enterprises slowed down their PC procurement speed and the rapid economic decline has also led to problems in many chip supply links.
Previously, chip giant AMD, with a market value of about US$100 billion (equivalent to RMB 710 billion), announced its third-quarter performance forecast far lower than market expectations. The company warned that demand for PC business slowed sharply, and AMD closed down nearly 14% the day after the expected third-quarter results report. Wall Street also responded to the company: collectively lowering its target price.
The stock price collapsed TSMC has fallen, and has fallen to the altar
On January 17 this year, when TSMC's stock price created a new historical high of NT$2,688 yuan, many people shouted that TSMC is the "protecting the Taiwan Mountain". Buy TSMC's stocks and make money while lying down, and make money at will. Now those who hold TSMC stocks can no longer show off. From the highest intraday NT$688 on January 17 today, to the last day of the end of September, the stock price has collapsed by NT$265, a drop of NT$38.52%. I can no longer find the feeling of selling casually and making money in the past.
Let’s look at the domestic chip market again. As we all know, in recent years, China’s chip industry has maintained rapid development, especially in 2021, the domestic chip production scale reached 359.4 billion. However, by 2022, the situation has reversed a little, and the production of domestic chips, which has been growing continuously, has shown negative growth. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, from January to August this year, the total number of chips produced in China was 218.1 billion, a year-on-year negative growth of 10%, and it has been negative for eight consecutive months, setting a record of the worst in history and ending the growth trend that lasted for 13 years.
Above all the data shows that the chip industry is now overcast. I think that at this time last year, the world was still in a "chip shortage", and some chips could not be bought even if they were priced at more than ten times. A large manufacturing company had to buy an old washing machine and remove the chips inside and use them in its own chip modules. This incident showed the serious situation of chip shortage at that time.
Why did the polar reversal occur in just one year?
Because a big crisis is coming, according to professionals, this will be the worst "great recession" in the chip industry in 10 or even 20 years. The direct reason for the "recession" caused by
is that the mobile phone can no longer be sold, resulting in a decline in demand for chips. Recently, Canalys released the global smartphone sales data in Q2 2022, and the entire smartphone market cannot hide its decline. According to data, global mobile phone shipments fell by 9% year-on-year. After Q1, Q2 continued to show a downward trend, and the development prospects of the global smartphone market are worrying.
Looking at the financial report of the chip foundry giant TSMC last year, you will find that 44% of its revenue comes from mobile phones, proving that the demand in the entire chip industry was mainly supported by mobile phones in the past, but no one bought the mobile phones, and the consumer electronics winter will naturally be affected.
In terms of performance, South Korea's Samsung Electronics has already exploded first. Samsung Electronics released its preliminary performance report for the third quarter, with revenue of 76 trillion won in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%; operating profit of 10.8 trillion won, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%, showing its first decline in three years.
Samsung This thunder may be just the prelude to the global chip recession, and the chip market will face more severe challenges in the future.
