. Weekly market review
[International Market]
During the holiday period, the U.S. non-agricultural employment data rose unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate of 3.5 is close to the low in recent years, resulting in an increase in the probability of hiking the rate of Fed 11 hiking rate hiking 75 basis points. Therefore, the market generally expects that aggressive rate hiking may intensify the risk of economic recession. US stock surged and fell, technically showing the characteristics of a bear market, and the short-term and medium-term pattern further fluctuated and was short.
USD Index first declined and then rose during the holiday period, rebounding slightly to the high of 112. It is expected that the USD Index will continue to have a strong fluctuation pattern in the short-term and medium-term periods, and the long-term trend will rise significantly.
London gold and silver prices closed slightly higher during the holiday period, and are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly in the later period.
During the holiday period, the international crude oil price rose sharply by more than 10%, and it is expected that the short-term medium-term fluctuation will be mainly strong.
London Nonferrous metals maintains a slight fluctuation trend, and it is expected that the short-term and medium-term base metals will fluctuate and fall mainly.
CME agricultural products have fallen sharply, while US cotton has adjusted significantly, and it is expected that short-term and medium-term fluctuations will fall mainly.
Malaysia Palm oil rebounded strongly due to the sharp rise in crude oil, with an overall increase of more than 10%.
[domestic market]
The RMB rebounded strongly before the holiday, but it fell slightly during the holidays due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Before the holiday, stock index futures and treasury bond futures fluctuated and fell across the board, and the CSI 1000 hit a new low since its listing.
[ commodity ]
Except for a few varieties such as methanol , double meal and black double coke fluctuated and rose slightly before the festival, other commodities futures followed stock bonds and exchange rate and fell. The risk spillover of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike significantly impacted domestic commodity futures.
. Market operation strategy next week. Next week's financial calendar(1) The risk of interest rate hikes on the outside of the Federal Reserve will further impact the market, but before the domestic holiday, the central bank lowers the first home provident fund loan interest rate and strives to ensure the normal range of exchange rate fluctuations. It is expected that the short-term weak fluctuation of stocks and bonds foreign exchange will be mainly the weak fluctuation, and the medium-term downward trend is expected to slow down. It is recommended that the stock index set a stop loss and trade in the day on the premise of stop loss, and the Treasury futures will remain waiting and see;
(2) Commodities are mainly the short-term fluctuation, and it is recommended that industrial products short-term short positions continue to hold or buy imaginary put options. Crude oil rebounds strongly in the short term, but it is still expected to fluctuate further in the medium term. It is recommended that when rebound to a key position, short-term short positions are mainly the short positions of . Cotton, sugar and fruits are expected to fluctuate and weaken, and medium-term short positions will continue to be held. Basic metals and black series mainly shorted when rebounded, and agricultural products double meals traded slightly intraday short trading, and the three major short orders of oil and fat were reduced. In terms of arbitrage, selling oil and buying meal for agricultural products makes arbitrage to reduce pounds or make profits.
Author: Dongwu Futures Wealth Management
Editor: Zhang Shu, Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
