Putting aside the three northeastern provinces, let’s take a look at what other larger cities in the north, Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Xi'an, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan , Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Yantai, Luoyang . Among these cities in the north with better economic development, the only cities with rising housing prices this year should be Tangshan, while housing prices in other cities, including Beijing, Zhengzhou and Qingdao, are falling. Among these cities, Zhengzhou is a relatively dynamic city. It is backed by Henan, a province with a population and economic value. It has no shortage of population and its economic development is also fast. It is now rushing to the third city in the north from a not-known city in the country. However, it is a city like Zhengzhou with great development potential. House prices have also been falling all the way in recent years. For example, Zhengzhou's house prices fell by 3.16% year-on-year in September.
There are also other small and medium-sized cities in the north, and housing prices are basically falling, such as the cities surrounding Beijing, Sanhe City ( Yanjiao ), Zhuozhou , Gu'an , Dachang.... House prices in these cities have basically been halved, returning to the level in 2017 from the high point. There are also housing prices in cities such as Xinyang , Anyang , Baoding , Zibo , Weifang, Kaifeng , Xingtai and other cities, as well. However, in , the cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region, housing prices did not drop significantly, and housing prices in many cities continued to rise. It can be said that compared with the housing prices in northern cities, it is not an exaggeration to say that "collective loss" is compared with the housing prices in cities in southeastern coastal areas. If we add the three northeastern provinces that have not developed well in recent years, isn’t it the collective “fall” of the north?
Why do housing prices in northern cities fall so much? After all, housing prices have risen too much and are inflated, without the support of population, economy and industry. For example, in Shijiazhuang, in 2017, the housing prices in Shijiazhuang could reach up to 20,000 yuan per square meter. However, Shijiazhuang's GDP in 2017 just exceeded 600 billion yuan, and housing prices and the economy deviated seriously. Nowadays, the housing prices in Shijiazhuang are about 14,000 yuan per square meter, with a significant decline. Although many people say that the housing prices in Shijiazhuang have fallen to the bottom, in my opinion, Shijiazhuang's current housing prices are still relatively high. You should know that the average housing price in Zhengzhou, which has an advantage in population, economy and industry, is only more than 13,000 points.
For example, the second city in the north is now: Tianjin. As one of the four municipalities directly under the central government, Tianjin was once the second only to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. However, Tianjin's GDP ranking in 2019 has fallen to 10th in the country, and it is only a matter of time before it falls out of the top ten. It may even be that one day Zhengzhou and Qingdao may surpass Tianjin. Tianjin's housing prices are the same as GDP. Although it is known as the holy place for college entrance examinations and is also attracting population through settlement, it still cannot stop the decline in Tianjin's housing prices. For example, the Shengjing Garden Community in Tianjin had a housing price of more than 30,000 yuan per square meter when the housing price was highest, but now it has basically dropped to 20,000 yuan per square meter. The decline exceeded one-third.
For example, Qingdao, the third city in the north, has also fallen sharply in recent years. In the first half of this year, the Qingdao government even introduced a one-day tour policy to test the bottom line of the national regulatory policy. From this we can see how sluggish the Qingdao real estate market is now. There is also Zhengzhou, a city with great development potential, with a large population, but housing prices are also sluggish and housing prices have also fallen a lot.
The above examples are all relatively large and well-developed cities in the north, but the housing prices in these cities still fell. And what about other cities in the north? Although housing prices in some small counties or small cities are still rising against the trend, looking at the housing prices in these big cities in the north, you can understand that the scale of the housing market in small cities is too small and easy to be controlled, and the price rise and fall does not have much reference value. The housing prices in these cities can temporarily hold on to the decline, but what if it takes a long time? Look at the current housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities in Northeast China, aren’t they slowly falling? House prices in many cities range from 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan. There are also many cities with low housing prices in Hegang in the Northeast.
Compared with the collective decline in housing prices in northern cities, housing prices in southern cities or in the southeast coastal areas are exactly the opposite. For example, housing prices in cities such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, Hangzhou, and Zhuhai have also seen a counter-trend rise this year, and finally, the regulatory policies in many places have to be tightened again. It can be seen that housing prices no longer rise unilaterally like before, but have differentiated, which is a very important signal for the real estate market. This tells people that housing prices will not always rise but not fall. Nowadays, when housing prices in most cities are inflated, it is normal for housing prices to fall at any time.
In my opinion, it is impossible for big trees to grow into the sky, and the same is true for housing prices. The rising housing prices have already had a negative impact on people's lives and the economy, and there has been a considerable bubble. If is a bubble, there may be a burst. Just as the former vice president of the central bank said in his speech this year: There are not many days of carnival in the bubble, and it is a reality that every country and everyone must face when it is prepared for the tide.
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