Yesterday, when Central Bank released the "Urban Depositors Questionnaire Survey Report for the Third Quarter of 2022", there were several interesting data. The proportion of more consumer residents in the future reached 22.8%. This data is 1% lower than the previous quarter, and the proportion of residents with more savings is 58.1%, which is 0.3% lower in the quarter on a quarter-on-month basis. The highlight is that 19.1% of residents will invest more, which is 1.2% higher than the previous quarter. 
.2 billion people are planning to buy a house. How will the real estate market change in the next three months?
Of course, what is more eye-catching among these data is the real estate market. The central bank's questionnaire showed that in the next three months, 17.1% of residents plan to buy a house, which is higher than 16.9% in the second quarter, indicating that after entering the third quarter, the proportion of people's optimistic about the real estate market has increased by 0.2%.
If we multiply the 17.1% ratio with our total population of 1.41 billion, the number of people obtained is 239 million. This macro indicates that in the fourth quarter, there will be more than 200 million people planning to buy a house. Why has the housing prices not increased significantly, but the proportion of people planning to buy a house increased?
I feel that this is somewhat related to a series of policies adopted by the central bank to stabilize the property market in the past September. What is more characteristic is that the lower limit of the interest rate of the first commercial housing loan for newly built commercial housing from June to August this year is adjusted or cancelled. This is actually a signal that to stabilize housing prices as much as possible. I think the result of this incident is not simple, although everyone expects that the probability of housing prices continuing to rise in the future is very low, and most people also believe that housing prices cannot rise again. It is precisely because of this common understanding that the transactions in the real estate market have become light, making it much more difficult to destock.
Now the central bank's investigation is about to buy a house. In fact, a series of measures by the central bank have played an important role. At least, it has changed the understanding of those rigid demand that believes that housing prices will fall, making people no longer stubbornly believe that housing prices will fall in the future. In fact, for the current real estate market, stable expectations are more important than anything else. What is expectations? In everyone's understanding, houses are tools for preserving value and increasing value. If housing prices fall, or continue to fall, then the attributes of this tool for preserving value will lose their effect, which is of course unfavorable to stabilizing the real estate market.
In the past, it is likely that the central bank would continue to actively support the real estate market through financial means. Now, from the central bank's third-quarter report, it can be seen that the data supporting the real estate market is in a recovery process. This shows that some previous measures have indeed stabilized the market, especially in stabilizing the confidence of the real estate market. The turning point or stabilization of the real estate market depends on confidence, and what does the recovery of confidence look at? Isn't it the emotional indicator of housing prices? If the expectation of falling housing prices is eliminated, the wait-and-see markets in the past will gradually come in. The 17.1% of residents mentioned in the central bank's report this time plan to buy a house, which does show that some of the desire to buy and enter the market is gradually increasing.
At this critical moment, if the policy further promotes the active support policy for the real estate market, I believe that transactions will increase, and the probability of market sentiment recovery will increase greatly, and the goal of destocking in the real estate market will gradually expand. In general, don’t have an extremely pessimistic view of the current real estate market in my country.
