Original: Shizhichang
Public Account: Shitian
History is the best teacher in reality.
——Li Shimin
A
5The memory of the fish is only seven seconds, but what about the public's memory?
At that time in 2015, my country's real estate reached a critical moment of survival. A large number of houses were ignored and the people were unwilling to buy them. Hangzhou once fell below 8,000, and some developers broke the market and shipped the goods. Shenzhen was still consolidating around 20,000 to 30,000 at that time, and houses in first-tier cities were also in danger.
Most of the real estate market prices in Xi'an and Chongqing are stable at around 7,000 yuan, and the worst position is more than 5,000 yuan.
In 2015, most of the houses were delivered to unfinished houses. Later, in order to maximize their profits, fine-decorated houses began to be promoted, and developers also enjoyed it.
The author remembers that I saw a community in Xi'an at that time. The fine decoration is 9,000 yuan and the rough decoration is 7,000 yuan. The characteristic of fine decoration is that the decoration fee can be borrowed from the house. Many people who have no money to decorate can simply borrow more.
Therefore, the fine decoration room model has been promoted.
A year later, another round of hot real estate market began, and Xi'an was the bridgehead. House prices can rise for 56 consecutive months, with the highest increase in the country in five years and a 210% increase in ten years.
The data from Xi'an two years ago is already amazing enough
Some readers will definitely have some questions about this round of increase. Could it be that the national population has not been urbanized from 2010 to 2015? Has the population in Xi'an not increased? Is there not enough urgent needs?
is not. At that time, the population flowed into the city, but most of the down payment for buying a house mainly comes from their own funds and their parents, that is, they save more than 100,000 yuan by themselves, and their parents give half of the funding, and then they buy a house.
At that time, the income from urgent needs was uniform and could not keep up with the growth rate of housing prices. Therefore, no one bought a house and could not afford it, or buy it slowly and make money slowly.
Therefore, many people's attitude towards houses is: they are relatively expensive, but they can buy them even if they work hard, and the future is promising.
and developers are more in pain because the development speed greatly exceeds the wealth accumulation of residents, so there is an oversupply.
B
what was the surplus rate in the national housing market at that time? Please see below.
The above pictures were selected from pessimistic reports in 2015. Sales in first-tier cities are OK, sold out in 8 months. By December 2015, the inventory area soared to about 700 million square meters, which means that the sales cycle further increased.
Some areas have achieved sales cycle of three years, and some areas have achieved five years, which means that the demand for real estate is basically very weak.
In this case, I thought real estate would be bad, and the price was reduced by 20%-30% in many places. One set in Chongqing is only 500,000, the other set in Xi'an is also 500,000, and the Taiyuan is also 500,000, which is very cheap. How beautiful.
smashed the sales office. Is it affecting developers after the price reduction of
?
is fine, just develop slowly and earn less.
However, the price reduction has a great impact on local areas. At that time, I found that many people didn’t buy a house without a house. What should I do? This will affect social development, and the speed of urbanization will be significantly slowed down.
The last sum, "price increase and inventory reduction" has historically appeared on the stage.
The transformation of shanty towns has also begun to accelerate, and a large number of demolition households holding a large amount of money have been born.It took about three years. By 2018, all high-priced urban villages in cities across the country were demolished. In cooperation with developers' price increases, housing prices that have fallen for many years finally began to rise again.
C
But here is an extremely critical question: Has our income increased?
does not. On the contrary, supply-side reform and environmental protection reform have eliminated many backward production capacity, and trade frictions have also caused many factories to lose orders, which naturally affects employment, but this has not stopped real estate from thrilling.
Because the price increase is to remove the inventory, it is actually because the local government has obtained a large amount of funds to expand the city, and then it has placed a larger trap for the bank.
This is the rise in real estate, which has given great confidence to local and developers. The developer feels that he is too big to collapse. After tied up with the bank, he can acquire land at will and then stockpile a lot of land.
Isn’t this just learning Li Ka-shing’s mode? However, Lao Li has already run away.
The logic of land hoarding will not be repeated. Later, the country discovered it, and you have created a bigger condom for you, and you have no fun and kidnapped the economy. What's so great?
The original intention of raising prices and destocking was to save developers. Unexpectedly, the developers did not tighten their debts, but instead expanded rapidly. They also hired economists to lobby for tax cuts and interest rates, which was extremely terrible. Real estate companies must be restricted at this time.
D
But nowadays, can they still be restricted?
Nowadays, housing prices have obviously deviated greatly. Only six wallets can pay the down payment. Young people’s mortgage loans rely on their parents to pay. How terrible is that a considerable number of people don’t have six wallets yet.
Therefore, the bank said, I won’t play this game anymore.
At this time, the real estate developer panicked and said, if you don’t play, I will be refusing to pay.
Bank snorted coldly and said, "You try."
Therefore, a major discount promotional payment occurred.
How much inventory is there in real estate at this time?
In 2015, the sales cycle was more than 2 years (with the first line removed), what about 2020? At this time, my country's annual real estate sales reached 1,400,000 units, an area of 1.7 billion square meters, and the land reserves of the top 50 developers reached 3 billion square meters. Compared with
, it has more than doubled and its size has expanded several times.
The most serious and critical time in 2015, the area of commercial housing inventory sales in my country was 700 million square meters, and currently it is nearly 500 million square meters, and there is still room for growth of 200 million square meters.
. We found that the current sales of new houses are about 1.7 billion square meters per year, which means that inventory accounts for less than one-third of the sales volume, and the sales speed is significantly faster than in 2015.
Let’s take several cities as examples, Taiyuan, Harbin:
Then Qingdao :
html l1
Next, let’s take a look at Shenyang, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Guangzhou:
You can see that the sales cycle is divided into three parts. The first part is more than 20 months, the second part is more than 15 months, and the third part is more than 6 months.
According to the development speed of real estate companies, a batch of new properties will generally be developed in 6-12 months, that is, new properties will be launched in the market after six months of auction. If the annual land supply remains unchanged, it is expected that at least two of the three auctions a year will be available for the market, and the third wave will be next year.
We found that in these places where new houses have been in stock for more than 20 months, housing prices have fallen, such as Harbin, Shenyang, and Taiyuan. These cities are originally cities with population outflows, so they have been falling. The inventory pressure in northern regions such as Qingdao, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, Changchun, Lanzhou and Dalian continues to rise, and the supply of new houses remains unchanged, it will be the same as Taiyuan and Harbin in the next two years.
In other words, there is not much time left for these cities.
, and inventories below 12 months include Xi'an, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Ningbo , Nantong , Wuhan, and Nanjing. These cities will become cities where housing prices still have room for growth.
E
In addition to the new house sales cycle, the second-hand house sales cycle is also very slow.
The industry has discussed that when a second-hand house is currently sold, there are basically 2.3 new houses for sale at the same time. In other words, under actual circumstances, the sales speed of new houses is about three times that of second-hand houses.
If the new house is sold for one year, then the sales cycle of second-hand houses is 2-3 years. Therefore, we can see that in some places the sales cycle is as long as three or four years.
Rice white flour consumption cycle is usually one year, that is, new ones will be produced in the second year, and the first year will be eaten. What about the house now?
at least a lifetime. After buying it, it’s done. Work with peace of mind.
Therefore, huge buying volumes pushed up, and subsequent buying increased with the increase of urgent demand.
is the first wave of hunger marketing and bought Xiaomi mobile . What about the second wave? I bought less, what about the third wave? Then there is no need to snatch it, what about the fourth wave? This generation has been discontinued. The same is true for the real estate market. In 2017, the biggest buying year, the subsequent price continued to rise, and speculative trading poured in. But speculative trading is also limited, which is the following figure. Speculative trading and urgent needs in Taiyuan have fallen sharply and cannot recover.
And what about Chongqing Hangzhou, which is now rising? The number of home buyers will only rise slowly, but speculative trading is increasing day by day, resulting in rapid sales and soaring housing prices.
Have you ever thought about what if one day the number of houses meets all speculative markets?
or at least it meets speculation in Hangzhou, Xi'an, Chengdu, Nanjing and Wuhan?
Then, the real need for the future must be a cliff-like decline.
There is another situation, which is hunger marketing, which causes home buyers to rush towards housing prices, coming and going in a hurry, and overdraw next year's share this year.
You can see that this is the current situation. Putting it horizontally can support housing prices for three to five years, and putting it vertically for two years. That is, housing prices are overdrawn, and it’s a bit of a glut of food. This year, it’s not about next year. This is like this in Shenzhen, and so is Hangzhou and Chongqing.
In comparison, the sales in about 12 months can still see some new growth every year.
For home buyers, the funds and number of people are equal to the total takeover strength. New house purchases are equivalent to cutting vertically, and everyone rushed in. The risk of
is the greatest. When the price drops, there is no need to support it, and there will often be cliff-like brittle breaks. In contrast, the first method is to buy home buyers who don’t know the truth, such as Taiyuan.
But why didn’t real estate collapse in 2015? Because the potential of residents has not been tapped yet, that is, leverage ratio , and by 2020, the leverage ratio of residents has reached its limit.
You can find that Shanxi has a third-ranked net deposit per capita in the country, but why can't the housing prices be afforded?
Because there is enough houses to live in, the population is aging, the return on rent is not very meaningful, the urgent need for buying a house is gone, and speculative markets cannot survive, so everyone will not speculate on houses.
And what about Hangzhou? The net deposit per capita of four or five thousand yuan, which is a month's salary, all went to gambling houses. We have talked about the matter of
Hangzhou pancakes, and we will not go into details.
F
Let’s take Xiaomi hunger marketing as an example.
When the first wave of grabbing a mobile phone, everyone wanted to get a plug-in; when the second wave was very angry, and they couldn't grab it, they wanted to smash the computer; when the third wave was snatched, they still had inventory within one minute, and they could still grab it in about five minutes; basically there was no fourth wave, because people who wanted to buy a mobile phone had already entered the circle in the first three waves, but the fourth and fifth waves began to give away things, and the more they gave them.
And the same is true in Hangzhou and Xi'an. Don't look at it for five months, but in fact, it has tapped the potential for next year and next year. What should I do next year and next year?
Someone has studied it in Hangzhou before, and like Shenzhen, there is a financial speculative market, that is, there is sufficient ammunition, and business loans and consumer loans are helping. Therefore, we see that under the same circumstances, the north can no longer sell, and the south is still selling.
Our current new house inventory is 500 million square meters, which means that the land supply in Taiyuan and Tianjin is still fully supplied. In the next two or three years, the inventory of the northern real estate market will continue to rise. The sale of second-hand houses has ended around 2015, and as home buyers run out of funds, the south will inevitably experience a cliff-like decline.
The turning point of the real estate market will arrive as early as the end of next year. Once business loans and consumer loans are held down, for example, the Shenzhen real estate market, is there still a future?
is gone, and those high loans in Shenzhen have begun to lower expectations, and this high point will not exceed in ten years.
The loan for single-family apartments in Hangzhou and Xi'an is still between 80w and 200w, and financial institutions are also willing to lend, while Shenzhen Dong is more than 500w loans and no one is willing to take over or lend.
A person's income of 200,000 yuan per year in his life is only 600 yuan, and it is impossible to lend you more than 500 yuan.
When the leverage ratio of Hangzhou people increases to the point where it cannot increase, how can housing prices rise?
per yuan of principal, and at most, you can get a loan of 2 yuan, that is, the limit of the capital leverage ratio is 233%. If you remove the full amount of money, and if you don’t buy a house, the leverage ratio of 141% is approaching the limit.
In recent years, the leverage ratio of Hangzhou residents has increased by 2-3%. The annual deposit growth rate is assuming 10% (M2 growth rate), and the loan is 140,000 houses * 200,000 loans, which means that the annual new loan is about 280 billion.
consumer loan business loan growth rate is also 15%. The household loan is 230,000 million yuan by the end of this year, the household deposit is 160,000 yuan, the household fund leverage ratio is 143%, and it will exceed 145% by the end of next year. How much more per capita net deposit in Zhejiang at this time?
What should be bought is in, and what should not be bought cannot be purchased. There is a cliff-like vacuum area in the middle. Even if there is no real estate tax, it is a huge hidden danger, which is enough to make the house price appear in its original form.
It’s better to do it yourself.
