In the first half of 2016, under the background of "destocking", China's real estate market ushered in a round of soaring market, but since October, the new real estate market policy has come. Under a series of high pressures of regulation, the real estate market in many places has cooled down, and then the regulation has been upgraded, which can be said to be a wave that has not yet subsided and has started again. So, what is the trend of the real estate market in 2017? Will housing prices continue to rise?
Related report: "2017-2020 Real Estate Industry Market Research Analysis Report " released by China Business Industry Research Institute
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House prices are rising
2016 The real estate market was booming, and housing prices were like wild horses that broke away from the reins. In October, 29 of the 31 provincial capital cities rose year-on-year, of which 9 provincial capital cities had an increase of more than 30%. Cities with high housing prices or rising housing prices are concentrated in first-tier cities, second-tier cities with developed economies and some first-tier cities around the world. The high housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are unattainable. House prices in some hot second-tier cities, led by the four real estate dragons in Nanjing, Xiamen, Suzhou and Hefei, also rose rapidly in 2016.
Data shows that as of the eve of regulation in 2016, the housing prices in Hefei and Xiamen both rose by nearly 50% in one year, followed by Nanjing and Shanghai, with an increase of 43% respectively. In addition, the housing prices in Shenzhen, Beijing and Hangzhou also rose by about 30% in one year. Third-tier cities around the first-tier cities such as Langfang, Foshan, Dongguan , Kunshan , etc., housing prices are comparable to hot second-tier cities, and even surpass housing prices in provincial capitals such as Shenyang and Harbin.
Land Market Sales
Since 2016, the word "land king" has appeared frequently in real estate news, and the land acquisition price of billions is even more astonishing. "Land king" has appeared in a burst of lightning, and "flour is more expensive than bread" has become the norm. The latest report of the China Index Academy shows that from January to September this year, a total of 15,585 land transactions were sold in 300 cities across the country, with a total land transfer fee of 1926.2 billion yuan, an increase of 40% year-on-year. Among them, the total amount of residential land transfer fees was 1502.1 billion yuan, an increase of 56% year-on-year.
Developer investment and sales
0000 million yuan in January-October 2016, a nominal increase of 6.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from January-September. Among them, residential investment was 5629.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9%, and the growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points. Residential investment accounts for 67.0% of real estate development investment.
1-October, the sales area of commercial housing was 1203.38 million square meters, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage point from January-September. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings increased by 27.0%. From January to October, the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern region was 576.11 million square meters, an increase of 28.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January to September; sales volume was 576.12 billion yuan, an increase of 47.0%, and the growth rate fell by 0.7 percentage points. The sales area of commercial housing in the central region was 337.88 million square meters, an increase of 33.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points; sales volume was 188.23 billion yuan, an increase of 45.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points. The sales area of commercial housing in the western region was 289.39 million square meters, an increase of 16.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; sales volume was 150.47 billion yuan, an increase of 19.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points.
Real estate company sales
0 From January to October 2016, the real estate transaction amount reached 9148.2 billion yuan, an increase of 41.2%, and the growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage point. Among them, Evergrande Vanke broke 300 billion for the first time, and the amount threshold in the first 10 months exceeded the whole year of last year. Evergrande ranked first with sales of 316.81 billion yuan, followed by Vanke and Country Garden .
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said that according to the data, the real estate transaction amount in the first 10 months of this year set a new historical annual record two months ahead of schedule, and the sales area also reached the highest record in the same period in history. It is expected that real estate sales throughout the year are expected to reach 11 trillion yuan and 1.35 billion square meters.
Inventory
At the end of October, the area for sale of commercial housing was 695.22 million square meters, a decrease of 900,000 square meters from the end of September. Among them, the area for sale of residential buildings decreased by 3.28 million square meters
html At the end of September, the area for sale of commercial buildings was 696.12 million square meters, a decrease of 12.58 million square meters from the end of August.Among them, the area for sale of residential buildings decreased by 11.77 million square meters. Overall, from a national perspective, the inventory structure sales are still very unbalanced. On the contrary, first- and second-tier cities with fewer inventory have become the main force in destocking. In the third- and fourth-tier cities with large inventory, inventory remains or the era of slow sales. Most of the sales ofare residential buildings in first- and second-tier cities, and commercial real estate and residential buildings in other cities are still significantly in stock.
Personal mortgage situation
Statistics Bureau data shows that in the first 10 months of this year, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises across the country were 11726.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, of which domestic loans were 1730.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2%; foreign capital was 12.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.0%; self-raised funds were 4076.4 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6%; other funds were 5907.1 billion yuan, an increase of 35.2%. Among other funds, deposits and advances were RMB 3365.5 billion, an increase of 32.2%, and personal mortgage loans were RMB 1978.3 billion, an increase of 51.5%.
From the perspective of specific cities in the country, Shenzhen is the highest among domestic first-tier cities in terms of home purchase leverage ratio. In the first half of 2016, the transaction leverage ratio and average loan contribution were both around 65%, and the average loan contribution in Beijing in the first half of 2016 was 51%, which is the same as the current level of Hong Kong. Shanghai loan contribution was about 55%, which is close to the New York level in recent years. In terms of mortgage burden ratio, "Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen" is already at the forefront of the world. In the first half of 2016, the mortgage burden ratio was 76%, 71%, and 122%, respectively, surpassing international cities such as New York, San Francisco, and London.
In addition, due to the rapid rise in housing prices in second-tier cities, the mortgage burden ratio in many second-tier cities has crossed the 40% red line, such as Nanjing, Suzhou, Hefei, Zhengzhou, etc., and the pressure on residents to buy houses is emerging.
Three rounds of real estate market regulation
Since September 30, the real estate market has faced three rounds of regulation.
The first round is the tightening of the regulation wave of the United Nations Day holiday in 22 cities starting from September 30: the main feature is the regulation in terms of purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, land supply, etc.; the second round of
from October 8 to November 27, the main feature is: cities will continue to issue regulatory policies to issue regulatory implementation details, and at the same time, all parts of the country will continue to vigorously carry out real estate market rectification actions;
The third round is the release of comprehensive credit tightening in Shanghai (property). Although there is only one city so far, this is the first city to fully restore the 2014 "9.30 Policy" to fully recognize houses and loans.
10-11htmlFrequency transaction volume fell in February, and the growth rate of housing prices slowed down
Strictly implemented regulatory policies in various places affecting home buyers' visits. The transaction volume of the property market fell in October and November, and the growth rate of housing prices slowed down.
Statistics Bureau data shows that among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the real estate market in first- and second-tier cities has cooled significantly, and the month-on-month growth rate has all declined to varying degrees. In October, the prices of newly built commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities rose by 0.5% and 1.3% month-on-month, respectively, down 2.8 and 1.0 percentage points from September; the prices of second-hand housing rose by 0.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, down 2.9 and 1.1 percentage points from September, respectively. Among key cities, the sales price index of newly built residential properties in Beijing and Shanghai rose by 27.5% and 31.1% year-on-year respectively in October, while Shenzhen rose by 31.7% year-on-year, but Shenzhen turned to a 0.5% month-on-month decline.
The latest statistics from the Central Real Estate Research Center show that the average transaction price of first-hand residential properties in November fell by 1.1% month-on-month to 54,986 yuan/square meter, a narrower decline compared with the 9.7% decline last month, which is mainly affected by the structural transactions in the new housing market. However, new housing prices in some cities are still rising. In November, the total number of online signings in 54 major cities across the country was 249,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 11%. If the transaction data in February this year (at the bottom of the transaction due to the Spring Festival holiday), the transaction volume in November hit a new low in nearly 18 months.
2017 year housing price forecast: First- and second-tier cities have moderate rise
Regulatory policies have been introduced, and the real estate market has cooled down significantly. However, transaction volume in 2017 may shrink significantly, but transaction volume in hot first- and second-tier cities may fall, but housing prices may rise moderately on the basis of stability, while third- and fourth-tier cities will slowly destock. The reasons are as follows:
1. The land supply is insufficient. Recently, most cities have stated that the land supply targets for cities that increase land supply in the fourth quarter are still not high, and the supply of high-quality residential land is still insufficient. This will inevitably trigger real estate companies to acquire land at high prices.
2. Due to policy reasons, there is little supply of commercial housing. The introduction of purchase restrictions and loan restrictions has certainly restricted the influx of demand, but policies such as the stricter supervision of pre-sale securities and the "restriction of housing prices" have also hit the enthusiasm for launching cases in many projects. The commercial housing market in most cities is still in a situation of supply in short supply.
3. The cost of land acquisition for real estate companies has increased. "High land prices and land grabbing trend" can summarize the land market in 2016. As the supply side of the property market, high land prices are undoubtedly another "culprit" of high housing prices. Data shows that from January to September this year, the average land premium rate in 300 cities across the country was 49%, an increase of 35 percentage points from the same period last year; among which the average premium rate of residential land was 63%, an increase of 45 percentage points from the same period last year. The latest data shows that the average cost of land acquisition by 40 major real estate companies in the first 11 months exceeded 6,000 yuan, up by 50% year-on-year compared with 2015.
has a general increase in land costs of more than 50%, which means that expectations of rising housing prices will be stronger in the future. According to the data, a total of 20 bond issuing real estate companies have acquired 48 high-priced land in 14 cities this year, with unit prices or total prices ranking among the top 100 high-priced land in the market. Among the cities with 48 land output, 13 first-tier cities contributed 77.6%, 33 second-tier cities contributed an average premium rate of 114.1%, and 2 third-tier cities contributed an average premium rate of 308.9%.
4. Cities with large populations have large demand and high housing prices. First-tier cities, including north, upper, broad and deep, attract cross-regional population inflows, such as Beijing attracts population inflows from Northeast China, North China and Northwest. Second-tier cities refer to provincial capitals and some cities with independent planning conditions, which are very attractive to the population of the province. Other cities are called third- and fourth-tier cities, and their populations are not reduced or stagnant. This huge influx of population also brings demand for housing.
