Introduction:
In 1998, my country officially abolished the welfare housing distribution system and established a monetization system for housing allocation.
simply means that the house is no longer distributed, and the house becomes a commodity and can be bought and sold freely.
then officially started the golden twenty years of my country's real estate industry. After the self-housing reform of
has been officially confirmed, the average price of commercial housing in my country has been on the rise overall. In 1998, the average price of commercial housing nationwide was 2,063 yuan, and then it has been rising. After the sharp rise in housing prices in 2021, the average price of commercial housing finally exceeded 10,000 yuan per square meter, up to 10,141 yuan per square meter.
National commercial housing prices refer to the average price of all commercial housing, including first- and second-tier cities, third- and fourth-tier cities, as well as county towns and towns. This price is very high.
You should know that the per capita disposable income of residents in my country in 2021 is 35,128 yuan.
After the housing prices surged in 2021, cities across the country, especially first- and second-tier cities, began to tighten the intensity of real estate market regulation, and many unprecedented regulatory policies have been introduced, Shenzhen is the first to implement the second-hand housing guidance price, concentrated land auctions in hot cities across the country, etc. The unprecedented real estate market regulation brought about by
The consequence of the real estate market is the rapid cooling of the real estate market, real estate companies have stormed and land has failed to sell. The transaction volume of new and second-hand houses has plummeted. Shenzhen, which has the hottest real estate market, has plummeted by 90%.
Let’s see how cool the national real estate market is:
first, the national commercial housing price fell from 10,141 yuan per square meter to 9,552 yuan per square meter, which has almost fallen to the level in 2019;
second, the national commercial housing sales area and sales amount, since March 2021, after the tightening of the real estate market regulation, various sales data have been in a downward state, especially at the beginning of 2022, which showed a cliff-like decline;
Third, the national real estate development growth rate has also been falling since March 2021, after the tightening of the real estate market regulation, the growth rate has been falling. Private real estate companies are basically flat and have no enthusiasm for acquiring land. In fact, since the second half of 2021, the land acquisition real estate companies in various cities are mainly central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and private real estate companies basically choose to lie flat;
fourth, the domestic real estate prosperity index is even more unbearable to look at it. Since the tightening of the regulation, it has been on a downward trend, especially at the end of 2021 and early 2022, the real estate prosperity index has fallen directly.
Faced with such a severe index in the real estate industry, a rescue of the market is inevitable. The specific manifestations of
rescue of the market are as follows:
At this stage, more than 75 cities across the country have more or less separated the intensity of regulation. Even Shanghai in the first-tier cities, Nanjing in the second-tier cities, Ningbo , Suzhou , etc., are gradually relaxing the intensity of regulation. As for the interest rate of mortgage loans, there are now more than 100 cities across the country, and the interest rate of mortgage loans has been lowered.
Although all cities are relaxing their efforts to regulate the real estate market, due to the recurrence of the epidemic, the real estate market not only has not recovered, but also has the possibility of further cooling.
The epidemic has a great impact on the economy and the real estate industry.
Therefore, on April 15, the central bank announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which will release a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds;
On April 18, the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued a notice stating that for home buyers, differentiated housing loan policies need to be implemented to better meet the loan needs of home buyers. Local banks should determine the down payment ratio and the interest rate of home loans based on local actual conditions. In fact, simply put, it is to lower the down payment ratio and reduce the interest rate of housing loans; for real estate companies, they also need to provide financial support, and they cannot withdraw loans, cut off loans, or suppress loans.Analysis of the late real estate market situation: From the current economic environment, it is inseparable from the real estate industry to quickly drive economic growth. Therefore, in the next one or two months, there may be further information on the loosening of the real estate market, and most second-tier cities may relax purchase, sales and loan restrictions, etc.
Recommended to buy a house:
For small cities with population loss, in addition to housing that needs to meet their own needs, don’t buy a second house. Moreover, it is even more necessary to sell excess unliving properties as soon as possible. These small cities, especially real estate in small counties, will become increasingly difficult to sell in the future, and should take the opportunity to sell them now.
For first- and second-tier cities, especially those who need to buy houses in urgent need, the current real estate market is very cold and is a good opportunity to buy houses, because you must know that for big cities, housing prices cannot fall. In the long run, housing prices in big cities, especially high-quality real estate in core areas of big cities, will continue to rise, and will always be very high-quality assets. Although the national commercial housing prices have fallen, it must be understood that most places where housing prices fall are small cities. The housing prices in core areas of big cities have always been relatively stable and have not yet fallen.
, and, in the post-epidemic era, currency issuance, inflation is inevitable. In order to resist inflation, buying high-quality real estate in big cities is the best choice.
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