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Financial Investment News Reporter Lin Ke
The market is currently gradually digesting unfavorable factors in the recent fluctuation pattern, and the move to adjust and exchange funds for stocks is also relatively obvious. With the continuous outflow of funds in some strong sectors in the early stage, large consumption has entered the investment portfolio of mainstream funds' defensive counterattack.
National Day holiday is approaching, and domestic epidemic prevention and control has also entered the normalization. Localities have been continuously introducing policies to promote consumption, and offline consumption demand has gradually recovered. This can be seen from the data of online travel platform in mid-September. Many popular routes have multiple train tickets to be sold on sale and "shortly" in seconds. In terms of air tickets, the booking volume and average payment prices of domestic routes have increased significantly during the 11th period, and the booking volume has increased twice since the Mid-Autumn Festival.
Some analysts believe that although track stocks in the market have frequently dropped by in recent days, since the demand for large consumption is still rigid and there is a large rebound expectation, investors are advised to pay attention to high-quality products in the tourism, household appliances, catering and other sectors in the large consumption industry at low prices.
Tourism
Demand needs to be further released
As domestic epidemic prevention and control gradually becomes normalized, offline tourism demand is rapidly recovering, and the recovery of the tourism economy has gradually entered the stage of policy implementation from the introduction of policy support. The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism jointly issued the " Notice on Financial Support for the Restoration and Development of the Cultural and Tourism Industry ", which has shifted from direct relief policies such as tax and fee reductions to indirect assistance tools for reducing financing and loan pressure. In addition, the national mutual recognition of nucleic acid results is expected to further release the suppressed tourism demand, and the tourism economy still has upward potential in the short term.
AVIC Securities analyst Pei Yifan believes that during the upcoming National Day holiday, with the premise of effective and precise epidemic prevention and control, coupled with the continuous introduction of favorable consumption stimulus policies, offline consumption and travel demand is expected to be released at an accelerated pace. In light of the current epidemic prevention situation, short-distance tours and micro-vacations will become the first choice for tourism in the near future. Local scenic spots, theme play, rural homestays, , camping, and night tours, innovative leisure tourism forms are expected to continue to be popular. Leading companies in the sub-sector industry directly share the performance boost brought by the industry's recovery. In the sub-sector of
, Pei Yifan advises investors to pay attention to the recovery of the domestic tourism industry. It will focus on short-distance, customized, and leisure travel. It is optimistic about high-quality scenic spots and tourism industry chain . The complete China Youth Travel , Tianmuhu , Songcheng Performing Arts, etc.; the outbound travel market has not yet restarted, but as the future is expected to usher in more positive factors to promote the recovery and development of the cross-border tourism market, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhongxin Travel and Caesar Travel; the epidemic disturbs short-term performance, leading hotels expand against the trend, open stores and continue to increase volume, constantly consolidating internal strength, and the head effect is highlighted. Once the travel demand is released, it will directly benefit the industry's recovery, the cycle is in sight, and the performance elasticity is expected. It is recommended to pay attention to Jinjiang Hotel , Chout Travel Hotel, Junting Hotel , etc.
Potential stock selection
China Youth Travel Service (600138)
Songcheng Performing Arts (300144)
Jinjiang Hotel (600754)
Zhonghua Hotel (600258)
Household appliances
It is expected to continue to repair
0 In the first half of 2022, home appliance companies demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, especially under the influence of many factors such as the outbreak of the epidemic and extreme weather, their market demand has changed positively. Some institutions believe that the home appliance industry is currently maintaining a steady growth trend. As the cost-side pressure gradually eases, industry profits are expected to continue to improve.
From the perspective of demand, Chen Meng, an analyst at Shouchuang Securities, pointed out that the domestic sales market has been hit hard by the repeated impact of the epidemic, and the impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year is still there, but consumption promotion policies have been introduced and implemented one after another, which is expected to boost the release progress of home appliance demand. In terms of supply, on the one hand, since May, the prices of bulk raw materials have fallen year-on-year, and the turning point of raw material prices has emerged. Coupled with the recent increase in ex-factory prices of products, it is expected to form profit elasticity. On the other hand, since February 2022, China's comprehensive export container freight index has continued to decline. It is expected that as sea freight costs further decline in the later period, the export profit margins of export companies are expected to rebound.In addition, the rapid depreciation of the RMB in the short term is beneficial to export-oriented home appliance companies.
As demand is released and cost pressure is reduced, the industry is expected to continue to recover. Dongguan Securities analyst Wei Hongmei pointed out that in 2022, the country has introduced a number of real estate-related policies, and various parts of the country have successively introduced a number of policies to loosen the property market to stimulate the rigid demand for domestic housing purchases. Among them, the room for lowering mortgage interest rates is expected to increase, which will continue to stimulate the demand for real estate, which is beneficial to the demand for large-scale appliances with post-cyclical attributes of real estate. In terms of raw material prices, starting from early 2021, the prices of upstream raw materials for home appliances rose sharply, and fell a lot in June this year. There are signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to pay close attention to the changes in the prices of upstream bulk raw materials and look forward to the turning point of profitability of the home appliance industry. Investors are advised to pay attention to Midea Group , Gree Electric Appliances , Haier Smart Home , Martian , Supor , Ecovacs , Joyoung Co., Ltd., Yitian Intelligent, Shuaifeng Electric Appliances, Boss Electric Appliances , Beiding Co., Ltd., Biyi Co., Ltd., etc.
Potential stock selection
Midea Group (000333)
Haier Smart Home (600690)
Martian (300894)
Supor (002032)
catering
Need a stronger "fireworks flavor"
National Bureau of Statistics announced that in August, China's total retail sales of consumer goods was 3625.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 2.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate last month. Among them, catering revenue was 374.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, the first time since March was positive. Although the growth rate of catering revenue was significantly affected by last year's low base, we can still see a trend of gradual recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery opportunities of the catering industry chain.
While the overall situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control is stable and improving, local scattered epidemics can be controlled more quickly and efficiently, which is conducive to the steady recovery of the catering industry. Some industry insiders pointed out that although the epidemic has caused some consumption scenarios such as daily catering and banquets to be missing, and the reduction of residents' consumption willingness has led to a slowdown in demand, as the epidemic is gradually controlled, the fundamentals of the damaged sectors in the early stage have gradually recovered. In the first half of the year, the fundamentals of the food industry completed the bottom of . In the second half of the year, driven by demand recovery + cost decline, related sub-industries are expected to start performance recovery.
Founder Securities analyst Liu Chang pointed out that the core logic of the development of the catering industry chain, namely, the process of chainization and industrialization is expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace. At the same time, the epidemic has accelerated the survival of the fittest in the catering industry, and large-scale chain catering has strong risk resistance and is expected to usher in a period of opportunity for expansion and development. As the overall situation of the domestic epidemic situation stabilizes and improves, the recovery of the catering industry is expected to accelerate. The revenue of enterprises in the catering industry chain, which were previously affected by restrictions on consumption scenarios, is expected to continue to improve month-on-month. Investors are advised to focus on the frozen leader Anjing Food, the leading catering supply chain of Qianwei Central Kitchen , the leading polyphonic leader Tianwei Food, which has continued to improve marginally, Babi Food, which has accelerated the integration of the breakfast package industry, and Juewei Food, which is expected to usher in a marginal recovery in the second half of the year, Richen Co., Ltd., etc.
Potential stock selection:
Anjing Food (603345)
Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215)
Tianwei Food (603317)
Babi Food (605338)
Editing|Chen Yuhe Clinic Inspection|Yuan Gang Review |Qinchuan
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