Liu Qiannan
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0014425
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI on 9/23rd, 1816, up 5.6% month-on-month, and -58.8% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index on the week of 9/23 was 2072.04, 10.4% month-on-month, and -58.1% year-on-year, of which Shanghai-Mexi container freight rate is US$2684/FEU, 12.0% month-on-month, and -57.5% year-on-year; Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is US$3163/TEU, 10.8% month-on-month, and -58.1% year-on-year.
3.Sea-Intelligence statistics on ship companies' ship deployment in the next few weeks. On the trans-Pacific route, capacity reductions will reach 22%-28% of weekly capacity deployment in the weeks after the Golden Week, while the peak capacity reduction in these weeks in 2019 was 15%-17%, and the average of 9%-11% from 2014 to 2018.
4. The probability of the Federal Reserve 11 hike rate 75BP is 76.2%.
5. In mid-September, the typhoon "Plum Blossom" had different degrees of impact on port production. After the typhoon, ports in various places actively seized production, ensuring the smooth flow of the port logistics chain. In this issue, the container throughput of the eight major coastal hub ports increased by 11.9% year-on-year.其中,外贸同比增长8.4%,内贸增长23%。
[Traffic Outlook]
Container, the euro zone PMI hit a new low in 27, and the Fed's interest rate hike in September was in line with expectations, but the dot chart expectation has risen significantly, and the pressure to raise interest rates is still high.基本面来看,供给端周转效率提升使得有效运力得到释放。 The demand side is affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and global high inflation, and demand in European and American countries weakens. The supply and demand pattern of container transportation is gradually turning to loosening, and freight prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term. In terms of dry bulk cargo, the recent shipments of Aopa Mine and Indonesian coal have increased, and the BDI index continues to rebound. In terms of food, the Argentine government provided preferential exchange rate , which led to a cooling of the market after centralized shipment.煤炭方面,印尼煤炭发运依然强劲。 Domestic weather is gradually getting cooler, and daily consumption of power and coal has declined, but under the background of economic stability policies, there is an expectation of a rebound in industrial electricity demand. In Europe, the restart of coal-fired power in the context of the energy crisis in has boosted demand. Recently, the water level of the Rhine continued to rise and the ports have improved, and ARA coal inventory has declined significantly, which is conducive to coal imports. In terms of iron ore, China's iron and water production will increase in the short term during the peak season, and the efforts of infrastructure projects are expected to boost demand. Overall, short-term dry bulk freight freight prices are expected to continue to fluctuate upward.
大豆/粕类
【外盘情况】
CBOT大豆指数下跌0.21%,报收1429.9/1432.97美分/蒲,美豆粕指数下跌0.1%,报收420美元/短吨;
【重要资讯】
1.欧盟:2022年7月1日到9月1 During the 8th, the import volume of soybeans from the 27 EU countries in 2022/23 was about 2.495 million tons, lower than the 2.919 million tons in the same period last year; the import volume of rapeseed was about 1.302 million tons, 1.023 million tons in the same period last year;
2.CFTCh: As of the week of September 20, 2022, CFTC non-commercial net long positions were 81,251 lots, a decrease of 2,311 lots month-on-month and an increase of 11,014 lots year-on-year;
3. Oil World: It is expected that the soybean planting area of Argentina will increase by about 1 million hectares year-on-year, thanks to the sharp reduction in the cereal planting area. If achieved, this will be the biggest year-on-year growth in more than 10 years. The soil moisture supply in many areas of central and northern Argentina is extremely low, which is worrying;
4. My agricultural products: As of the week of September 23, the actual crushing volume of soybeans in the oil plant was 2.0543 million tons, with a starting rate of 71.4%. The actual opening rate of oil plants this week is slightly lower than previous expectations, 22,600 tons lower than the estimate; the actual crushing volume increased by 248,900 tons compared with the previous week.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The theme of single-sided favorable is limited, but the tight inventory and spot goods still support the price below. Risk aversion before the festival increases, and the main fluctuation and wait-and-see;
2. Arbitrage: MRM01 price spread narrows
3. Options : Sell M2201-C-415 0&Sell M2201-P-3950 (views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)
Oil sector
[Foreign market impact]
Cbot US soybean oil main price change range -3.79% to 63.73 cents/pound; BMD Horse palm oil main price change range -2.51% to RM3733/ton.
【重要资讯】
1.农业咨询机构Datagro周五表示,预计南美当前正在种植的大豆作物产量将创下纪录高位,理由是预计种植面积将扩大至历史最大。
2.MPOA: Malaysia September 1-20 palm oil production is expected to increase by 0.71%, among which Malay Peninsula decreased by 1.5%, Malay eastern region increased by 4.71%, Sabah increased by 5.43%, and Sarawak increased by 2.59%.
3.UOB: Data from the palm oil production survey from September 1 to 20 showed that: ① Sabah production range was +4% to +8%; ② Sarawak production range was -2% to +2%; ③ The production range was -2% to +2%; ④ The production range of Malaysians was -1% to +3%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The grease market continued to fluctuate last night, and the current driving is relatively limited, but the industrial structure is clearer and there are few changes. It is recommended to try shorting rapeseed oil at high prices, and 11,000 has a certain safety margin.
2. Arbitrage:
y2211-y2301, target point 650, part of it continues to hold.
2211YP expansion, keep waiting and wait and go long after the callback.
arbitrage currently recommends ladder take-profit strategy. Because the drive has not completely ended, you can continue to hold the position, but the current position fluctuates greatly and there may be a large retracement. It is recommended to set points to continuously take profits and leave the market, reducing the profit retracement.
3. Options: Vegetable oil fixed income cumulative selling strategy.
(以上观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据)
玉米/玉米淀粉
【重要资讯】
1.乌克兰媒体当地时间23日报道称,当天11艘货船载着20.1万吨农产品从乌克兰南部港口驶往亚洲和非洲国家。 Since the implementation of the Black Sea Food Initiative, Ukraine has exported 4.58 million tons of agricultural products, and a total of 203 cargo ships have sailed from ports in southern Ukraine to Asian, European and African countries.
2. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the total national summer grain output in 2022 was 294.78 billion jin, an increase of 2.87 billion jin over the previous year, an increase of 1.0%; of which wheat output was 271.52 billion jin, an increase of 2.57 billion jin, an increase of 1.0%.
3. The International Cereals Council (IGC) released its latest monthly report, reducing the global corn production forecast for 2022/23 from 1.179 billion tons to 1.168 billion tons. The global wheat production forecast for 2022/23 is raised from 778 million tons to 792 million tons.
4. The pace of export sales of US corn slowed down significantly, far inferior to market expectations, and dropped by nearly 70% from the previous week, breaking through the 10-week low. China's procurement volume increased slightly in the week, but it was still less than 10,000 tons. The US Department of Agriculture reported that in the week ending September 15, the US market export sales in 2022/2023 increased by 182,300 tons, while the US corn export shipment was 563,000 tons.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The pressure of autumn harvest is coming, and the suspicion of economic recession has once again enveloped the market. commodity is under overall pressure, and futures prices are expected to fall again. It is recommended that industrial customers can participate in selling and hedging when highs are high.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Sell c2301-C-2820, or sell c2301-C-2820 and sell c2301-P-2620.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
pig
[Related information]
1. Spot quote: During the weekend, pig prices in all parts of the country rose and fell, including 23.7-24.2 yuan/kg in the Northeast, which remained the same, 24-24.2 yuan/kg in the North China, which rose 0.2 yuan/kg in the East China, which was 23.94-24.14 yuan/kg in the East China, which fell 0.1-0.3 yuan/kg in the Southwest region, which was 23.1-23.8 yuan/kg in the South China region, which remained the same, 24.6-26 yuan/kg in the South China region, which was 23.94-24.14 yuan/kg in the East China, which fell 0.1-0.3 yuan/kg in the Southwest region, which was 23.1-23.8 yuan/kg in the South China region, which remained the same, 24.6-26 yuan/kg in the South China region, which was 10.1-0.3 yuan/kg in the South China region. Increased 0.3-0.5 yuan/kg;
2. Piglet sow price: As of the week of September 22, the price of binary sows was 1,784 yuan, down 5 yuan, and the price of piglets was 626 yuan, which remained unchanged;
3. National Bureau of Statistics: Under the influence of promoting consumption policies, consumption has a conditional basis for gradually recovering, but we still need to pay attention to the marginal impact of the repeated COVID-19 epidemic on demand;
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : On September 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 126.38, down 0.13 points, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 128.01, down 0.15 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 31.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1%; beef was 77.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6%; mutton was 67.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4%; eggs were 11.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1%; white chicken 19.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.1%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The contradiction between spot supply and demand is still tight, but the market trading decline after the holiday and the policy impact, pay attention to the support below and wait and see;
2. Arbitrage: wait and see as the main
3. Options: Sell LH2301 -P-22700&Sell LH2301-C-24500 (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Chicken
[Important information]
1. White Feathered Botanical Chicken: Tonight's price of Shandong feathered chicken is expected to rise by 5 minutes to 4.40 yuan/jin. ( Zhuochuang Information )
2. White-feathered broiler chicken seedlings: Shandong Dachang chicken seedlings will price rise to 0.1 to 3.8 yuan/feather tomorrow. (Zhuochuang Information)
3. Segmented products: Over the weekend, the mainstream transaction price range of frozen large breasts in Binzhou, Shandong Province is 9.63-10.15 yuan/kg. ( Chicken Disease Professional Network )
4. Zhuochuang Information: On September 16-9/22, Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 49.122 million chickens, a month-on-month decrease of 0.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.19%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of domestic key white-feathered broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week from 9/16 to 9/22 was 70.29%, up 2.65 percentage points month-on-month; the average inventory capacity of frozen products was 69.53%, up 3.18 percentage points month-on-month.
6. Zhuochuang Information: In August, China's white-feathered broiler output was 468 million, up 12.8% month-on-month and -2.5% year-on-year. From January to August 2022, the total number of white-feathered broilers was 3.144 billion, a year-on-year period of -4.6%.
7. Zhuochuang Information: The survival rate of broiler breeding in August was 92%, down 1pct from July.
8. Since the Ukrainian Grain Export Corridor was officially launched on August 1, 130 voyages have been successfully carried out and 3 million tons of grain have been transported.
9.Belarus announced that it would extend the ban on exporting grains for another 6 months on the same day. Cereal species include wheat, rye , barley, buckwheat , oats, corn, etc. As a special situation such as humanitarian assistance to grain exports, it is not subject to this ban. The decree is now published on the Belarusian government website and is in effect immediately.
[Traffic Outlook]
In the short term, in terms of supply, the output of feather chickens gradually recovered before the National Day, but it was still not as good as the same period in previous years. In August, China's white-feathered broiler output was 468 million, up 12.8% month-on-month and -2.5% year-on-year. On the cost side, with the concentrated shipment of agricultural products and Argentina soybeans in the Black Sea area, feed prices are expected to ease in the future, but the cost is still at a historical high. On the demand side, terminal demand is not strong, and dealers are generally in the recent situation of picking up goods. It is expected that there will be no obvious positive boost for the delivery of divided goods. In the short term, the prices of feather chicken and divided goods fluctuate weakly. In the medium and long term, with the decline in parental production in stocks before the end of the year, the supply of white feathers gradually shrinking, and it is expected that the price of chicken will remain at a high level.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: Yesterday, the price of mainstream eggs in the country rose mainly, and the mainstream price of mainstream eggs in Beijing was 240 yuan/44 jin. Today, most of the mainstream egg prices in the country are stable, the prices in Beijing are stable, the mainstream Shimen, , , , Huilongguan and other mainstream wholesale prices are 240 yuan/44 jin, which is stable compared with yesterday. As of 7 am, Dayang Road has a total of 5 vehicles arrived, and the arrival and delivery are normal. The mainstream wholesale prices are 240-250 yuan/44 jin, which is stable compared with yesterday. The price of eggs in Shanghai is stable, with the price of ordinary powdered eggs being 260 yuan/45 jin, which is stable compared to yesterday, while the price of red eggs is 153-154 yuan/27.5 jin, which is the same as yesterday. Today, the prices in Liaoning in Northeast China are stable, prices in Jilin are rising, and egg prices in Heilongjiang are stable; most of the mainstream prices in Shandong are stable, the prices in Henan are stable, prices in Shanxi are stable, prices in Hebei are stable, prices in Hubei are stable, prices in Jiangsu and Anhui are stable, and the prices in local eggs are high and low, and egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate, and the goods are normal.
2. Zhuochuang data: In August 2022, the national number of laying hens on the rise in the country was 1.182 billion, a decrease of 1% month-on-month and an increase of 0.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In August, the monthly emergence of the sample enterprises' egg hen seedlings (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.93 million birds, an increase of 2.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens in the main production areas in the country in September 23 was 14.96 million, a decrease of 7.5% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information, the elimination chickens in key production areas across the country were monitored and counted for days of the age of elimination chickens in key production areas across the country. The average elimination age of 521 days in the week of September 22, an increase of 2 days from the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: the national representative sales area of eggs in the week of September 22 was 7749 tons, an increase of 8.8% over the previous week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: Inventory and circulation alleviated inventory in the production link in the week of September 22, there was not much change. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.74 days, which was the same as the inventory in the previous week.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the side of the egg supply, the number of in-production in August is still relatively low. It is expected that the number of in-production in the next few months will still be at the same level in the same period and will show a gradual downward trend. Moreover, the stock of eggs is relatively small recently and the supply of eggs is relatively low. On the demand side, before the National Day in previous years, demand was weak, and prices fell sharply. This year, spot prices should not fall, but market prices rose firmly, and the average price in the main production areas is still above 5 yuan. In terms of futures , the spot price of eggs is still above 5 yuan/jin, and the futures and spot price difference is still large. The futures price of eggs in recent months is still relatively low compared to spot. In the short term, the price of egg futures is mainly fluctuating.
2. Arbitrage: The near-month is strong, the far-month is weak. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entering the market)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's finished sugar production in August 2022 was 257,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%; the cumulative output from January to August was 9.856 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%.
2. China imported 103,100 tons of syrup in October 2022, up from 68,800 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 49.85% year-on-year. Among them, the aqueous solution of sugar cane sugar or beet sugar (tax number 17029011) is 7.44 tons; the simple solid mixture of sugar cane sugar, beet sugar and other sugars, the sucrose content exceeds 50% (tax number 17029012) is 25,400 tons; other solid sugars and syrup, artificial honey and caramel without spices or colorants (tax number 17029090) are 3,300 tons.
3. Brazilian consulting agency JOB Economia's latest report shows that the sugar production and sugarcane pressing volume of the country's major sugarcane belts will be higher than expected in the 2022/23 pressing season, due to improved weather conditions and the increase in the proportion of sugar in sugarcane. Brazil's climate is better than last season. Therefore, the supply of sugarcane in the central and southern regions is higher than the April forecast. The consulting firm pointed out that the sugarcane crushing in the central and southern regions is expected to rise to 566 million tons, an increase of 1.43% from April forecast and an increase of 43.2 million tons year-on-year, as sugarcane suffered severe drought and frost hit last quarter. The sugar production in central and southern Brazil is expected to be 34.8 million tons in the 2022/23 crushing season, the previous estimate was 33.5 million tons, and the 21/22 crushing season is 32.1 million tons. It is expected that the proportion of sugar cane sugar production in central and southern regions will increase, from 44.1% to 46.1%.Brazil's national sugar production in the 22/23 pressing season is estimated to be 38.1 million tons, while the 2021/22 pressing season is 35 million tons, and sugar exports are expected to be 27.35 million tons, an increase of more than 1 million tons year-on-year.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Worries about global economic recession once again shrouded the market, domestic consumption was weak, and Zhengtang was expected to run weakly.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Sell SR301-C-5600. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton-Cotton Yarn
[Foreign market impact]
Last Friday, ICE US cotton price hit the limit, and the December contract fell 3.9 cents/pound (-4.04%) to 92.54 cents/pound.
[Important Information]
1. In late August 2022, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System launched a nationwide special survey on the growth of cotton. The sample involved 14 provinces (autonomous regions), 46 cotton planting counties (cities, tour farms), and 1,700 designated cotton planting information contact households. The survey shows that as of the end of August, the overall weather in all major cotton producing areas is conducive to the formation of bolls and feces of cotton. It is expected that the yield per unit of new cotton in 2022 will be 136.2 kg/mu, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year, and the total output will be 6.032 million tons, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year.
2. China Cotton Network Special News: According to feedback from some cotton-related enterprises and cotton farmers in northern Xinjiang, several machine-picking and ginning factories that opened scales around September 20 have stopped collecting ( Fangcaohu A cotton processing company has a 40% garment and 12% moisture seed cotton price is 5.4 yuan/kg, but "there is no market", and farmers are reluctant to sell and are more reluctant to resist). Most companies are not in a hurry to acquire it, and plan to postpone the scale opening period until around October 8. Regarding the delayed acquisition of seed cotton, some local ginning factories in Heze, Shandong started to purchase, mainly based on the quality support of seed cotton this year. The current purchase price is 4.0-4.10 yuan/jin (39-40% of clothing and below 15% of moisture), which is lowered by 0.40-0.50 yuan/jin compared with the same period last year. However, due to heavy rain last year, the moisture, color and comprehensive quality are not as good as this year, especially the color, and the early seed cotton basically did not have the dark and yellow color phenomenon of last year. Although the quality has improved, the price has dropped, and local cotton farmers are reluctant to sell.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: The purchase price of 5.1 yuan/kg in the northern Xinjiang has a great impact on the market. Although cotton farmers do not accept this price in the short term, it is difficult for the market to form batch transactions, but this price has a great impact on the price of ginning mills and has a great impact on the market. The market will speculate on low purchase prices in the short term. Affected by the low acquisition expectations, it is expected that the price of Zheng cotton will continue to decline. Pay attention to whether the previous low position below has fallen below. If it falls below the market confidence will be greatly affected. If it is based on the purchase price of 5.1-5.5 yuan/kg, the January contract of Zheng cotton may go to a price of 11,000-12,000 yuan/ton.
2. Arbitrage: Short for more than 1 month.
3, Options: Short-term buy put options . (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Peanuts
[Important information]
Domestic peanut prices are relatively strong. Some wheat stubble peanuts in Henan production areas were listed sporadically, with limited overall supply volume, and the market sales volume improved slightly. The sale of oil and peanuts is accelerating, and transactions are based on quality. The transaction price of Longda rose. The transaction price was between 10,000-10,100 yuan/ton, and 700 tons of goods arrived. The price of peanut oil is 17,500 yuan/ton, and the price of peanut meal remains 4,850-5,050 yuan/ton. It is currently operating at a historical high, and the oil mills have good profits.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market continues to rise in a new wave, with the prices of imported rice and imported crude oil rising significantly, the domestic new rice has a high moisture content and high prices, and the oil mills have increased the cost of pressing. There is a demand for stocking in National Day, and filling companies restock on demand, but their willingness to get goods decreased after the price rises. In terms of price, the current mainstream quotation for Shandong first-class ordinary peanut oil is 17,200 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation for small-pressed strong-flavored peanut oil is 19,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation for Henan first-class ordinary peanut oil is 17,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation for small-pressed strong-flavored peanut oil is 19,000 yuan/ton.
[Operation suggestions]
One-sided: The current market sentiment continues to be strong, spot prices continue to rise over the weekend, and expectations of production cuts are slowly fulfilling. The current market expects production cuts to be reduced.The overall peanuts may continue to run strongly. It is recommended that some long orders continue to be held, and the target point is temporarily 11,000.
month difference: 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, which leads to futures returning to spot. Given the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may fall. The current position driving limited is expected to maintain oscillation, and it is recommended to keep waiting and watching for the time being.
futures strategy: 01 contract basis is around -760, but the peanut market still has room for upward, so you can choose a higher point to operate. However, the capacity of the peanut delivery warehouse is expected to be saturated. Before operation, the storage capacity should be confirmed and the source of old peanuts should be locked.
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
