January 11, Monday [Close News] 1. Spot Gold: Last Friday, there was a flash crash in the European session, falling nearly 25 US dollars in one minute, breaking the 1900 mark. In the evening, non-agricultural data were released. After a short-term fluctuation, the gold price bega

[Close News]

1. Spot Gold: first flash crashed in the European session last Friday, falling nearly 25 US dollars in one minute, breaking the 1900 mark. In the evening, non-agricultural data were released. After a short-term fluctuation, the gold price began to fall continuously, reaching a low of US$1,828.23, down nearly US$90 from the day-high, and finally closed down 3.38% at US$1,848.45 per ounce. Silver once plummeted more than 9% and hit a low of $24.45, and finally closed down 6.26% at $25.40 per ounce.

2, US dollar index: returns to the 90 mark, closing up 0.3% to 90.098. The yield on the 10-year US bond once exceeded 1.12%.

3. Oil market: The overall oil of 2 oil continued to rise smoothly last Friday. WTI crude oil has risen above $52, and Brent crude oil has broken the $56 mark. As of the close, WTI crude oil closed up 3.34% to $52.61 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 3.34% to $56.25 per barrel.

4. Bitcoin: fell first and then rose to approach the $42,000 mark last Friday, hitting the highest point of $41,811.4, but there was a sharp correction over the weekend, falling to 34,500 at the lowest point, falling more than $7,000 at the highest point, and rebounded above the 39,000 mark as of 6:20 on Monday.

5. US stocks: The US Democratic Party seized control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The market hopes that President-elect After Biden took office, more stimulus measures will be introduced. The US stock index and Nasdaq broke the top slightly in early Friday. However, the non-agricultural inauguration data was unexpectedly significantly reduced. The Dow Jones and the benchmark index performed repeatedly. Entering the middle section, the Dow Jones fell by as much as 227 points. As of the close, the three major stock indexes closed up together, the Dow Jones rose by about 60 points, the hydrogen energy sector and popular Chinese stocks performed strongly, and silver and gold stocks fell.

6, major European stock indexes: closed slightly higher across the board, with the German DAX 30 index closing up 0.61%, and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.26%.

7, Hang Seng Index: closed up 1.2%, property management stocks and automobile stocks rose across the board, and telecom stocks continued to fall under pressure. Geely Auto rose nearly 20%, and it is rumored to build a smart electric vehicle company with Baidu.

8, A-shares: The three major stock indexes fluctuated and consolidated last Friday. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.37%. On the market, cloud gaming, digital currency, facial recognition, media, communication equipment and other sectors are active; the breeding industry, national defense and military industry, nonferrous metals, food processing and other sectors are weakening. The transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded one trillion yuan for the fifth consecutive day.

[International News]

1. According to CME's "Feder Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 0%-0.25% in January this year is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 0.25%-0.50% is 0%; the probability of maintaining interest rates in the range of 0%-0.25% in March this year is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

2. Biden: A comprehensive stimulus package will be proposed

00 US President-elect Biden said on the 8th local time that he will propose a comprehensive stimulus package, the number will be very "large", the scale will be trillions of dollars, and details of the stimulus plan will be announced on Thursday. Biden pointed out that the $600 relief payment is not enough and plans to increase the relief subsidy to $2,000.

3, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi : U.S. House of Representatives will vote on measures to seek removal of Trump under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, and the impeachment bill will be submitted to the House of Representatives.

4. Fed Vice Chairman Clarida said: The employment report in December 2020 is disappointing, and the current bond purchase speed will be maintained in 2021. The Fed does not target the dollar exchange rate, and the low unemployment rate itself is not enough to trigger tightening monetary policy, which may take quite some time before considering reducing the scale of bond purchases. Due to the base effect, inflation is expected to exceed 2%.

5, The non-farm employment population in the United States recorded a decrease of 140,000 after the seasonal adjustment in December, the first time since April last year. The unemployment rate recorded 6.7% in December, ending the previous seven consecutive declines. Analysis points out that the current total number of non-farm employment in the United States has decreased by about 9 million compared with before the epidemic, and the employment level has returned to the level at the end of 2015 and early 2016.The latest weekly report released by

6 and International Financial Association (IIF) pointed out that since the outbreak of the epidemic, global debt levels have soared, increasing by US$17 trillion last year to US$275 trillion, and the ratio of global government debt to GDP rose from 90% in 2019 to nearly 105% in 2020. IIF pointed out that the global economy may bear record debt in 2021, dragging down the prospects of recovery.

7, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) position report: As of the week ended January 5, speculative net long positions of WTI crude oil futures increased by 3493 lots to 328,124 lots, speculative net long positions of COMEX silver futures increased by 180 lots to 47,633 lots, and speculative net long positions of COMEX gold futures increased by 15,267 lots to 152,129 lots.

8, In February, the crude oil price sold to Kuwait was $0.65 per barrel higher than the average price of Oman Dubai, the crude oil price sold to the Mediterranean region was $1.20 per barrel, the crude oil price sold to Northwest Europe was $2.15 per barrel, and the crude oil price sold to the United States was $0.05 per barrel. In addition, Iraqi also raised the prices of all crude oil sold to Asia in February.

9, According to Kyodo News on January 10, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported that four men and women who arrived at Tokyo Haneda Airport from Brazilian were confirmed to be infected with the mutated new coronavirus. Takashi Fukuta, director of the National Infectious Disease Research Institute of Japan, revealed that regarding the mutated new coronavirus detected by passengers arriving in Japan from Brazil, he believes it is different from the new mutated virus found in the UK and South Africa.

10. Gold price fell sharply. Analysts: Gold may undergo a fundamental change. gold turned downward after reaching $1,950 last week. Gold fell more than 4% on Friday, and silver prices plummeted as much as nearly 10%, as the prospect of a stable handover of US government power and soaring US Treasury yields hit the precious metals market. "For many investors, gold is undergoing a major fundamental shift, and they are beginning to abandon safe-haven trading. Some strong capital flows in the U.S. bond market have weakened some of the attractiveness of gold." U.S. Treasury yields have risen, rather than the opportunity cost of gold, which is not a frightening interest, has increased due to the prospects of the Democratic government's massive stimulus plan.

11, Citi analyst: The range of gold around US$1849 to US$1855 is a key area worth paying attention to. spot gold fell below $1,900 per ounce on Friday, silver hit its biggest drop since September. Since the beginning of the new year, gold prices have fluctuated sharply due to rising benchmark U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of economic support measures have increased. At the same time, the epidemic has raging, uncertainty in global economic recovery and rising inflation are still positive for gold prices. This is the first week of January, and the position holding time is often very short, so the trend may be amplified; the range of gold around $1849 to $1855 is a key area worth paying attention to, because this decline is similar to the November pattern, and at that time, the yield and the US dollar put pressure on gold prices.

12, crude oil strategist Julian Lee: The United States' imports of Saudi Arabia's crude oil will not be zero for a long time.

In the last week of 2020, the U.S. oil imports to Saudi Arabia fell to zero for the first time in 35 years, but are not expected to be maintained for a long time. U.S. sanctions accelerate the collapse of Venezuela's oil industry, as well as the decline in oil exports from Mexico and Colombia, which means the United States will need to import heavy oil from elsewhere, and the declining supply near the Caribbean Sea is not expected to recover anytime soon. Saudi Aramco owns Motiva's refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, which means it is likely to continue to provide a market for Saudi crude oil.

In addition, Chevron is also a regular buyer of Saudi crude oil. It is expected that U.S. crude oil imports to Saudi Arabia will inevitably drop to zero again in the coming weeks, but the U.S. has not completely reduced its dependence on Saudi crude oil. However, even if the new Biden administration is less supportive of domestic oil producers and demand rebounds again after the epidemic eases, the U.S. oil imports to Saudi Arabia may remain at a low level.

[Industry Data]

1. CCTV Finance: Cold tide weather has swept most parts of my country from north to south, and has had a significant impact on the transportation and supply of production and living materials. The industry said that screw pepper and thread pepper rose for two consecutive months. Usually, 4 or 5 yuan per catty is needed, but now 10 yuan per catty is needed.The cost price of red rice pepper has risen to 25 yuan per catty. Last year, some chili growers suffered losses, so they reduced their planting in winter; in addition, some large chili planting bases in the north reduced their output due to weather reasons, resulting in rising prices.

2. My Steel Network: Myspic comprehensive index last week was 166.74 points, up 0.85% from the previous week. The raw material cost of steel billets is mutually restricted by the downstream production cost, and the price is difficult to rise and fall. The spot billet remains firm under the support of arbitrage. For the ex-factory price of billets, the support is cost and the pressure is downstream production enthusiasm, and it maintains a narrow upward adjustment in the short term.

3, Xinhua News Agency: is affected by multiple factors such as cold wave weather and the concentrated release of loads caused by "coal to electricity", and the electricity load in Henan Province has risen rapidly. On January 7, 2021, the highest electricity load in Henan Province's grid reached 65.15 million kilowatts, a record high, an increase of 12.05 million kilowatts from the highest load in last winter, an increase of 22.7%. This is the first time in the history of the province that it has hit the highest electricity load in winter.

4. Yonhap News Agency: As of January 8, 2021, the total market value of listed companies in the South Korean securities market was approximately RMB 12.83 trillion, setting a record high. Among them, the sum of the total market value of the four major enterprise groups including Samsung, SK, LG, , Hyundai Motor, accounts for 61%.

5. Italian Tourism Federation: In 2020, the number of international tourists arriving in Italy decreased by 78 million, the number of tourists decreased by 240 million, and the number of Italian citizens traveling abroad decreased by 36 million. Italy's tourism industry has retreated back to its level 30 years ago.

6. On January 8, live pig futures suffered a sharp drop on the first day of listing, with a drop of more than 10%.

After experiencing the overall upward cycle from the end of 2018 to the first half of 2020, the market's judgment that the domestic pig cycle in the third quarter of 2020 has entered a downward track, so it is not optimistic about the price in September this year.

7 and According to real-time statistics from Worldometers, as of 09:01 Beijing time on January 11, the number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in worldwide exceeded 90.67 million, reaching 90672,307, and the number of deaths exceeded 1.94 million, reaching 1942,545 . Among them, the number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the United States exceeded 22.91 million, reaching 22913,428, and the number of deaths exceeded 383,000, reaching 383,275.

[Finance data and events that are focused on today]

(Japan Tokyo Stock Exchange closed for public holidays for 1st)

①09:30 China December CPI annual rate;

②17:30 Eurozone January Sentix Investor Confidence Index;

③ The next day, the Federal Reserve Bostic participated in the online discussion.