Zhitong Finance APP learned that the changes in the non-farm employment population and unemployment rate of the United States after the seasonal adjustment in February will be announced at 21:30 Beijing time this Friday (March 6). According to current forecasts from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of new non-farm jobs in February was about 175,000. The growth rate is expected to be lower than last month, but still reflects moderate growth in the labor market.
Previously, the United States' non-farm employment population increased by 225,000 after the seasonal adjustment in January, exceeding the market expectations of 160,000. Job opportunities in the construction, healthcare, transportation and warehousing industries have increased significantly.
The US non-farm employment data in January was slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose slightly. The growth of non-farm employment was mainly contributed by the construction and service industries promoted by the warm winter climate, and the manufacturing industry remained sluggish. Currently, the US manufacturing industry is facing a weak situation of both production and demand, and core inflation is still showing weakness.
Generally speaking, the number of ADP employment is of some degree of reference for the prediction of non-agricultural employment population. If ADP data improves, non-agricultural data will usually go well.
2 small non-farms exceeded expectations
Yesterday, the United States released the latest APD data, showing that the number of new jobs in February increased by 183,000, exceeding the expected increase of 170,000. After the United States released ADP data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in April further increased. The vice president of
ADP Employment Data Company said: The employment market is still stable, and the number of employment in private enterprises continued to increase in February. New jobs are still mainly concentrated in large enterprises, and large enterprises are still the strongest performing companies.
In the previous month, there was widespread concern that the spread of global public health incidents would lead to a global economic slowdown. However, despite market concerns and stock markets fluctuated sharply, U.S. companies continued to recruit and the economy remained resilient, data showed.
ADP data reflects that small businesses may be hit by health incidents. In February, 133,000 new jobs were created, almost all of which came from companies that employ more than 55 employees. Companies with less than 50 people only added 24,000 jobs. "If there is a major damage to the economy, COVID-19 must break through the firewall of the job market if it is to cause significant damage to the economy," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's analysis, said in a statement. "There are some cracks in the firewall, but judging from the job growth in February, it should be strong enough to withstand most situations." Zandi said that there is no sign that the job market has been affected at this point, but he added that data in the coming months reflects that "it is only a matter of time".
In addition, the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in February was 50.7, compared with 51.9 in January. In February, the growth of commercial activity in the US manufacturing industry was slow, with the final value slightly lower than the market expectations of 50.8.
IHS Markit chief economist Chris Williamson said: "The production and order trends in manufacturing industry deteriorated significantly in February, and manufacturers are coping with the dual adverse factors of decline in export sales and delays in supply chains, which is related to recent global events."
2 non-farm data forecast
According to Trading Economics' forecast, the U.S. non-farm employment population in February may be downward compared with the previous month, with an estimated 165,000 new people.
In addition, according to the current forecast of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of new non-agricultural jobs in February was about 175,000. This figure is lower than the 225,000 new jobs last month and 261,000 new jobs in November 2019.
Zhitong Finance APP has compiled non-agricultural forecasts from 12 large investment banks. Overall, each investment bank predicts the growth rate of non-agricultural employment in the United States in February between 151,000 and 210,000, the unemployment rate forecast is between 3.5%-3.6%, and the average annual hourly wage growth rate forecast is between 3.0%-3.1%. If the unemployment rate is 3.5%, it will be a nearly 50-year low.
Judging from the current situation, these 12 investment banks predict that non-farm growth will decline in February.
But Wells Fargo expects non-farm employment to maintain strong growth in February, with employers adding 200,000 jobs. The public health incident is not expected to have much impact on recruitment, as concerns about the health incident were not so obvious during the investigation and there was no sign of substantial impact on recruitment activities.
In addition, St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad delivered a speech today saying that the public health incident is not expected to affect the non-farm report in February. He believes that the benchmark for the U.S. economy is still pretty good, backed by the strongest labor market in 50 years, and he does not want the market to bet excessively on the March meeting to continue to cut interest rates.
Based on current market expectations, the non-agricultural data in February is expected to be mixed, and the market will look for clues from the sub-data, including changes in the manufacturing employment population. If more data indicates that the US employment market is still strong, it is expected to support the US dollar.
