Last week, Fed rate hike expectation continues to disturb investors' nerves, and the Bank of England's entry intervention has caused the pound to recover the decline after the previous mini budget was announced. US stock continued to fall, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.92% weekly, the Nasdaq fell 2.69% weekly, and the S&P 500 html fell 2.91% weekly. The three major European stock indexes were under pressure and weakened, with the UK's FTSE 100 falling 1.78% weekly, the German DAX 30 falling 1.38% weekly, and the French CAC 40 falling 0.36% weekly.
has many highlights next week. The performance of the US non-farm employment report in September will become a new basis for the outside world to evaluate the strength of the Federal Reserve's policy. The US dollar and US bond yields will rise and fall back to and then accumulate momentum again. The global central bank rate hike in continues, and it is expected that Australia, New Zealand and Hungary will continue to raise benchmark interest rates. The ECB will release minutes of September's policy meeting, and you can pay attention to the statements on the direction of interest rates. OPEC+ ushers in its monthly ministerial meeting, and all parties may reach an agreement on production cuts.
Highlights of the week
Non-farm disturbances Rate hikes expected
Fed officials will continue to speak on more than 10 occasions this week , including the No. 3 Fed, New York Fed Chairman Williams, hawk members, Fed Governor Waller and Boston Fed Chairman Bostic, will all make their debut. The market's focus is turning to the policy prospects of the remaining two meetings this year, and we hope to find more clues from the latest statements. FedWatch, the FedWatch FedWatch, CME Group's FedState observation tool, shows that investors currently expect the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is close to 60%.
After hiking interest rates for the third time in September, Fed officials spoke intensively last week, and the focus on inflation has become a common topic, and the stance of monetary policy tightening has basically not changed. In terms of
data, the biggest focus in the next week is undoubtedly the non-agricultural report . The market expects to add 250,000 new jobs in September, the unemployment rate will remain at a stable level of 3.7%, and wages will continue to grow steadily, up 0.3% from the previous month. Better-than-expected data will consolidate market bets on further aggressive interest rate hikes in November. For the Fed, there is no reason to slow down the pace of tightening as long as inflation and labor markets remain hot. Therefore, the latest employment report will be one of the most critical determinants ahead of the November policy meeting.
In addition, there are some indicators this week that are worthy of attention from investors. ISM September manufacturing index is expected to continue to fall, but is still in the expansion area above 50, and payment prices, new orders and employment in sub-indicators may show moderate weakness. US factory orders are expected to stop falling and rebound in August, and the Federal Reserve's Jolts job vacancy may remain above 10 million in August, indicating that the labor supply and demand situation remains tense. In terms of
financial report, the key companies worth paying attention to this week include Wei Haomei and Levitra.
Crude oil and gold
International oil prices rebounded from their lows this year last week, and the market's focus turned to the prospect of OPEC+ production cuts, but concerns about the recession still had an impact on the demand outlook. WTI crude oil closed at $79.49 per barrel, up 1.0% weekly, down 24.8% in the third quarter, and Brent crude oil closed at $87.96 per barrel, up 1.2% weekly, down 23.4% in the third quarter.
Many institutions believe that the tone of the crude oil market remains weak, and people are worried that the radical monetary tightening policies of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks will drag down the global economy. "The market's concerns about the Federal Reserve seem to be greater than confidence in the ability of OPEC to protect the market," RBC Capital Markets Commodity analyst Michael Tran wrote in a note. OPEC+ will hold a monthly ministerial meeting this week, with reports that Russia may recommend a 1 million barrels cut per day. Tran believes that OPEC is facing a dilemma after Saudi Arabia previously complained about the disconnection of futures markets and the tension in the physical market. “The group symbolically cut production by 100,000 barrels a day earlier last month. The larger production cuts in the near future will mean a concession where actual demand is worse than initially estimated. If the cuts are too small, the market will ignore it.”
Commerzbank believes that the production cut will benefit Russia, because when the embargo of EU takes effect in early December, Russia will need to find new buyers for its oil, and may need to make further price concessions. Therefore, early price hikes will undoubtedly be very popular. Any such production cut will need to reach at least 500,000 barrels per day to support the price.
As the dollar index surged and fell, international gold prices stopped falling and rebounded. The COMEX gold futures price for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $1,672 per ounce, up 1.0% on weekly and fell 7.5% in the third quarter.
Flexible Plan Jason, Research Director, Investments Teed) believes that the rise in the dollar limits gold prices, and the Fed can continue to raise interest rates in its attempt to curb inflation , making the dollar more attractive. The prospect of gold prices is difficult to measure, but as long as interest rates have not reached the highest level, there is "extra room" for prices to fall further. Ted stressed that unless inflation figures drop to the point where the Fed can "release the brakes", there is no hope of gold recovery, but it is still several months.
ECB releases meeting minutes
This week, the ECB will release the September policy meeting minutes, and any hints about interest rate trends will become the focus of the market. The ECB raised key interest rates by 75 basis points in September, ending the zero-rate cycle. Latest interest rate market futures shows , the ECB will raise interest rates again this month 75 basis points.
According to data released by the European Statistics Office (Eurostatatml2), the euro zone consumer price index (CPI) rose 9.1% in August and grew by 10.0% year-on-year in September, continuing to hit a record high. Among them, energy prices rose 40.8% year-on-year, becoming the main driving factor. The market generally expects inflation to rise further in the coming months, which increases the risk of the economy falling into recession at the end of the year.
European Central Bank President Lagarde said last week that even if economic activity in the euro zone is expected to "slow down sharply", the ECB will continue to raise borrowing costs. "We expect further interest rates to be raised at the next few meetings to curb demand and prevent the risk of continued rising inflation expectations. Our future interest rate policy decisions will continue to rely on data and follow the way we act in succession. "She said.
The Bank of England took emergency measures last week to temporarily stabilize the pound's exchange rate . The statement said that the central bank will conduct Treasury bond purchase operations by October 14 and postpone the operation of selling Treasury bonds until October 31. However, the risk has not completely disappeared. Many institutions believe that if the volatility reappears, further intervention by the Bank of England cannot be ruled out, and the next time may appear in the form of an unplanned interest rate hike.
