U.S. employment data
Hua said
HD latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the country's non-farm employment population increased by 266,000 in April, far less than the expected increase of 1 million, a sharp decline from the previous value of 916,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 6.0% to 6.1%, while the market was expected to drop to 5.8%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the non-farm employment population data for the first two months, downgrading from the initial 916,000 to 770,000 in March, and up from 468,000 in February to 536,000.
Even if the revised 770,000 is used as the measurement benchmark, the 266,000 data can be regarded as a "cliff-like decline." Against the backdrop of a gradual recovery of the US economy, the sharp decline in the increase in the number of non-farm employment and the counter-trend rise of the unemployment rate are indeed surprising.
The person in charge did not seem to agree with this upset data. US President Biden said that the economic recovery is not a sprint, but a marathon: "When we passed the "Battle of the Relief Act", I remind everyone that this plan is designed to help in one year rather than 60 days. We never thought that everything would be fine after the first 50 or 60 days. Now, there is more evidence that our economy is moving in the right direction, but obviously, we still have a long way to go." US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that data has always been unstable, with frequent surprises and temporary factors, and a month of data should not be used as the basic trend.
So, why did the sudden decline in the number of non-agricultural employment populations occur?
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce pointed its finger at the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill, which is the measure “a $300 increase in federal unemployment benefits per week”: “The disappointing employment report clearly shows that the issuance of unemployment benefits to people is curbing the job market that should be stronger, and one step policymakers should take now is to end the $300 additional unemployment benefits per week.” The association believes that the $300 additional unemployment benefits caused about a quarter of recipients to receive unemployment benefits more than their job income, and therefore, they are reluctant to go back to work.
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster is more blunt: “At the peak of the pandemic, short-term financial aid to vulnerable and displaced people has now become a dangerous federal benefit that incentivizes and pays workers to stay at home rather than encourages them to return to the workplace.” To this end, earlier this week, he unilaterally ordered the state’s Department of Employment and Labor to withdraw from the federal government’s relief program by the end of June.
Only fools will work if they don’t work and have money, and the money they get exceeds the income from their jobs. The answer given by the American Chamber of Commerce is that the economic logic is flawless and is undoubtedly powerful. The supply and demand ratio of talents in the labor market also provides corresponding evidence: "If you look at April, it seems that there are about 1.1 unemployed workers in each job vacancies. Therefore, there are many jobs there, and the labor supply is still very small." The $01.9 trillion COVID-19 relief and relief bill is the core content of the Biden administration's "100-day New Deal". "The federal government unemployment benefits increase by $300 per week" is one of the main measures in the bill. The federal unemployment benefits for people who are unemployed due to the new crown epidemic are about to increase by $300 per week. I searched for the timeline: On March 6, the U.S. Senate passed the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief and relief bill; on March 10, the relief bill passed in the U.S. House of Representatives; a day later, Biden signed it and put it into effect.
, and this timeline is obviously directly in line with the decline in the increase in non-agricultural employment population. The increase in non-farm employment in March was lowered from the initial 916,000 to 770,000, and the sharp decline in the increase in non-farm employment in April was exactly what happened simultaneously after the implementation of the "federal government unemployment benefits increased by $300 per week." Because from the second half of March, unemployed people will receive $300 more than before, plus the original unemployment benefits, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, "about one-quarter of the recipients receive unemployment benefits more than their job income."You earn more money when you are lying down than working. If it were you, would you still look for a job?
According to the date set by the relief bill, the "federal government unemployment benefits increase of $300 per week" will be implemented until September 6, which means that for a quarter of the unemployed in the United States, the happy days of "making money while lying down" can last for a long time.
May 8, 2021
