My dog is almost one year old, and a friend gave me a beautiful retractable dog leash to congratulate you. Seeing Fuguier running around happily within the range of the retractable dog leash, he couldn't help but think of the "investment and walking dog" theory that he had talked to others before.
When going out to walk the dog, the dog always runs back and forth from front to back, left and right. Some people say that the relationship between value and price in stock investment is like the relationship between a person and a dog when walking a dog - sometimes the price is higher than the value, and sometimes the price is lower than the value, but the return value is the center of its back and forth; just like when walking a dog, the dog always runs back and forth, but the dog generally does not run too far, and will eventually return to the owner.
But I think the theory of investing in dog walking before was not comprehensive enough. If the theory of investing in dog walking with the "retractable dog leash" should be more comprehensive. In any fully game investment market, , the relationship between external price and intrinsic value is indeed like the relationship between a dog and an owner, but because the retractable dog leash in the owner's hand when walking the dog has a retractable range, most of the time the puppy (price) is pounced back and forth within the range smaller than the maximum length of the leash before and after the owner (value).
When we run around within the range, we can have many opportunities to judge its direction. For example, when we just surpass the master and move forward, we will continue to move forward, and when we just run back, we will return to the master and even continue to run back. These can be considered some kind of "trading with the trend".
But here, we emphasize that the significance of "retractable dog leash" is that it is the most important and most worthy of investment opportunity, not a transaction like "may continue to move forward" or "may need to go backward". : In the end, it is three words "certainty"! Only when the "retractable dog leash" extends to its limit length will our most certain investment opportunity come! As long as the dog leash does not break, then the dog will run back. The higher the game is, the stronger the elasticity of the dog leash, and the tougher it is. is not only not likely to break, but also once it starts to run back from the limit, its speed is also quite fast.
Soros said that the "right number of times" of your transaction is not important, the important thing is the "right order of magnitude". ——This sentence also means this. Only when the investment opportunities with higher certainty in can you bring you the right magnitude and change your trading level or even social level! ——This is the essence of the theory of investing in dog walking.
The US stock market has experienced a 45-year bull market since 1974 after the collapse of Bretton Woods system. So far, the US stock market has reached its limit length. This is why we say that the US stock market "honored , and profits cannot last long." dog leash has reached its limit. Even if this old dog who has been running for 45 years has good health, he will finally slap back twice in the end!
The Chinese stock market is just the opposite. Although the Chinese stock market is still running back and has not even reached its limit, judging from the scaling of the dog leash in hand, the days of the return of the limit should not be far away.
In the future, even if the puppy in the Chinese stock market will run back with the old dog in the US stock market for a while, it will be just stretching its backward limit. Once the limit is reached, the Chinese stock market will start to run back on its own! This is the reason why we believe that even if the bull market in the US stock market is not around for ten years in the future, the Chinese stock market can independently go through the bull market for ten years or even longer.
