Starting from 2022, girls under the age of 14 who have a Guangdong Provincial Student Status, have entered the first grade of junior high school since September and have not received the HPV vaccine can be vaccinated for free to prevent cervical cancer.

Guangdong Province's fiscal plan adds about 600 million yuan to HPV vaccine free vaccination

Picture/Unsplash

text | "Financial" reporter Xin Ying Hao Xinyu

edit | Wang Xiao

Starting from 2022, girls under the age of 14 who have a Guangdong Provincial Student Status, have entered the first grade of junior high school since September and have not received the HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccine can be vaccinated for free to prevent cervical cancer .

Guangdong Province has become the first provincial pilot in China to announce free vaccination. To this end, Guangdong Province’s fiscal plan to add about 600 million yuan to free vaccination from 2022 to 2024.

Previously, many places such as Jinan, Lianyungang , Xiamen , Ordos and other places have implemented plans to announce free HPV vaccination for girls of appropriate age.

In female malignant tumors, the incidence of cervical cancer is second only to breast cancer . 99.7% of cervical cancers are caused by HPV infection. In 2020, China had 110,000 new cases of cervical cancer and nearly 60,000 deaths.

WHOWHO (WHO) recommends girls aged 9 to 14 as the primary HPV vaccination subjects, because the younger the age, the better the immune response of the vaccine.

"Previously, there were free cervical cancer vaccination conducted by schools in China, and the voluntary vaccination rate reached 80%. "A person in the biomedical industry said.

In the first four months of 2021, the Central Inspection Institute issued 5.4289 million HPV vaccines batches. Who can gain an advantage in a market with such huge potential?

"grab the seedlings"

A mother working in Beijing wanted to make an appointment for her daughter who was studying in Shanghai, but she found many hospitals but failed.

After joining a vaccine grabbing mini program and a vaccine information community under the recommendation of a friend, I finally spent a high price to get the opportunity to receive a nine-valent vaccination from a private hospital.

23-year-old Shanghai college student Fang Li (pseudonym), also joined a local HPV vaccine WeChat group, and some people regularly post some "grabbing vaccines" notices in the group. Since it is difficult to "grab seedlings" in Shanghai, Fang Li also paid attention to information about surrounding cities.

In late September 2021, she saw the "seedling" notice from , an community health service center in Hangzhou. On the same day, Fang Li notified four friends to "grab the seedlings" at the same time, and in the end she was the only one who succeeded.

The current cervical cancer vaccine types are divided into bivalent, tetravalent and nine-valent vaccines. "Value" indicates the type of virus that the vaccine can prevent. The bivalent vaccine covers the prevention of HPV16 and HPV18 virus infection. 70% of cervical cancer and cervical cancer precancerous lesions worldwide are related to HPV16 and HPV18 viruses. The quadrivalent vaccine covers the prevention of HPV viruses of types 6, 11, 16 and 18, while the nine-valent vaccine covers five additional subtypes on this basis.

The higher the visible price, the more types of viruses you will prevent. There are two bivalent vaccines in the domestic market, one is four-valent and the other is nine-valent, with a total of four options available.

However, different vaccines also have different ages of application (see picture). Early puberty, that is, the age of 9 to 14, is the best age for vaccination for HPV vaccines.

In China, "84% of cervical cancer is caused by HPV16 and HPV18." Wei Lihui, chief physician of obstetrics and gynecology at Peking University People's Hospital, analyzed that bivalent vaccines can basically meet the needs of Chinese people. The nine-valent vaccine can increase the prevention rate of cervical cancer to 90%.

"At present, adult vaccination is still the main market." The above-mentioned biopharmaceutical industry analysts analyzed that more people choose to import vaccines in first- and second-tier cities and coastal cities.

bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines are not out of stock now, and nine-valent vaccines are hard to find. Many people have the intention of doing it once and for all. Since they want to fight, they will fight the most comprehensive coverage.

Because Hong Kong approved the launch of the nine-valent vaccine earlier, there have been a steady stream of people going to Hong Kong to get HPV vaccine from the mainland.The price of vaccines was once speculated to HK$10,000, and the physical examination package was bound to be sold in , but the supply was still in short supply.

Fang Li received the nine-valent vaccine in in community hospital, with a total of 3,978 yuan in three shots. For the same vaccine, a three-dose shot in a private hospital in Shanghai costs 7,780 yuan, which is nearly twice the price.

According to the "Research Report on Market Prospects and Investment Opportunities of China Cervical Cancer Vaccine" (hereinafter referred to as the "Cervical Cancer Vaccine Market Research Report") released by China Business Industry Research Institute, the current penetration rate of of the domestic bivalent vaccine is 0.26%, the quadrivalent vaccine is 0.6%, and the nine-valent vaccine is 0.65%, and the market still has a lot of room for growth.

According to statistics, more than 80% of women have been infected with the HPV virus at least once in their lifetime.

"Now make an appointment for nine-price, and you can get vaccinated within about five years." A community service center in Shanghai said in response to a consultant.

In the future, we will have to grab the government order

Free vaccination of Guangdong Province HPV vaccine will be a big order, and the domestic bivalent vaccine was finally selected.

Previously, Xiamen City was also funded by the finance department in 2020 and purchased domestic HPV vaccines for free vaccination. The scope of application is female students aged 13 to 14.5 with a student in Xiamen City.

"Finance∙Big Health" learned that at present, domestic bivalent vaccines have not significantly reduced their prices.

There will be more and more government payments in the future. Recently, the National Health Commission of said that it would promote pilot projects to encourage regions with conditions to actively adopt a variety of financing models to gradually carry out free HPV vaccine vaccination.

In the domestic market, there are nine-valent and quadrivalent vaccines held by Merck , GlaxoSmithKline , and bivalent vaccines of Wantai Bio.

According to the information disclosed by Wantai Bio, since the vaccine was approved for marketing in China in May 2020, the total number of approved and issued units has reached 2.46 million units, accounting for about 16% of the domestic market.

"The market share of domestic HPV vaccines increased to about 38% in 2021." The above-mentioned biopharmaceutical industry person introduced. GlaxoSmithKline, which has only a bivalent vaccine, has suffered a major impact. According to Tianfeng Securities data, the batch issuance of GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent vaccine in 2019 was 2.075 million, and it has been reduced by the entry of quadrivalent and nine-valent vaccines into China.

By 2020, after the domestic vaccine was launched, GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent vaccine sales fell by 66%, and the annual total issuance volume was only 690,000. At the same time, the pricing of domestic vaccines is more affordable, at 329 yuan per dose. Women aged 9-14 only need to receive 2 shots, and women aged 15-45 have 3 shots. The total cost of vaccination ranges from 650-1,000 yuan, while GlaxoSmithKline's single divalent HPV vaccine is close to 600 yuan.

GlaxoSmithKline also launched a cooperation project with the government in 2019. The three-year free vaccination program for women aged 13-18 years old was launched by Ordos City . The bivalent vaccine of GlaxoSmithKline was purchased.

A person from Ordos' health department told "Finance∙Big Health" that the project has been piloted in August 2020 and will be launched in April 2021. It is planned to cover nearly 50,000 people per year. 40% of the target population have completed the first dose of vaccination.

"When the domestic vaccine was purchased, it was not yet available for sale, and this was a poverty alleviation project, and the purchase price of the vaccine was lower than that of the domestic ones now." The above-mentioned Ordos Health and Health Personnel said.

Merck, which has two HPV vaccines, quadrivalent and nine-valent, has no such government projects that can be found. The relevant person in charge said, "No information is available for external sharing."

Three years later, it may enter the price war

The situation where only one domestic HPV vaccine is about to be broken.

Watson Bio (300142.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform on January 4 that the company's bivalent HPV vaccine application and production are being carried out normally in accordance with relevant procedures of the drug supervision department, and the nine-valent HPV vaccine is carrying out related work for phase III clinical preparation.

"Cervical Cancer Vaccine Market Research Report" shows that based on the winning bid price of the product in the domestic market and the rough estimate of the batch issuance volume, the market demand scale of China's HPV in 2020 was about 11.8 billion yuan, of which the demand scale of nine-valent vaccines and market demand scales were about 6.3 billion yuan, accounting for 53%; the quadrivalent vaccines were about 4.6 billion yuan, accounting for about 39%.

All parties are actively expanding their production capacity. Wantai Bio announced in July 2021 that it would add 10 million new cilin bottle production line, and the total production capacity of bivalent HPV vaccines reached 30 million units/year; Merck began to expand its US production plants as early as 2019, and it is expected that by 2023, it will be expected to increase supply to meet US and global demand.

More than ten domestic companies are conducting research on HPV vaccines, not only nine-valent, but also multiple varieties such as eleven-valent, fourteen-valent, and fourteen-valent. More than ten products have entered the third phase clinical trials.

participating in the development of Wantai Bio's HPV vaccine , deputy dean of Xiamen University School of Public Health, analyzed to "Finance∙Big Health" that domestic HPV vaccines are expected to be in a period of supply in short supply for about three years, and the supply will exceed demand in the future, and it is likely to enter the era of national immunization planning, with prices falling sharply.

According to the statistics of the Forward Economist in 2021, since the HPV vaccine was launched in China, the cumulative number of vaccinated people has been around 9.74 million. Every year, a large number of girls join the appropriate age group. In 2020, there were 4.745 million newborn girls registered in the public security system.

"The gradual expansion of children's vaccination, and the stock of adult vaccination is gradually digesting." The above-mentioned biopharmaceutical industry insiders analyzed that the market advantage of imported vaccines may be overturned in three to five years.

If domestic vaccines want to gain market advantages, "first we must ensure that the product quality is not inferior to imported vaccines." Zhang Jun believes that companies that go on the market earlier will have first-mover advantages, and more importantly, it depends on who can control the cost and maintain high product competitiveness under low prices.

Fang Li received the nine-valent vaccine in in community hospital, with a total of 3,978 yuan in three shots. For the same vaccine, a three-dose shot in a private hospital in Shanghai costs 7,780 yuan, which is nearly twice the price.

According to the "Research Report on Market Prospects and Investment Opportunities of China Cervical Cancer Vaccine" (hereinafter referred to as the "Cervical Cancer Vaccine Market Research Report") released by China Business Industry Research Institute, the current penetration rate of of the domestic bivalent vaccine is 0.26%, the quadrivalent vaccine is 0.6%, and the nine-valent vaccine is 0.65%, and the market still has a lot of room for growth.

According to statistics, more than 80% of women have been infected with the HPV virus at least once in their lifetime.

"Now make an appointment for nine-price, and you can get vaccinated within about five years." A community service center in Shanghai said in response to a consultant.

In the future, we will have to grab the government order

Free vaccination of Guangdong Province HPV vaccine will be a big order, and the domestic bivalent vaccine was finally selected.

Previously, Xiamen City was also funded by the finance department in 2020 and purchased domestic HPV vaccines for free vaccination. The scope of application is female students aged 13 to 14.5 with a student in Xiamen City.

"Finance∙Big Health" learned that at present, domestic bivalent vaccines have not significantly reduced their prices.

There will be more and more government payments in the future. Recently, the National Health Commission of said that it would promote pilot projects to encourage regions with conditions to actively adopt a variety of financing models to gradually carry out free HPV vaccine vaccination.

In the domestic market, there are nine-valent and quadrivalent vaccines held by Merck , GlaxoSmithKline , and bivalent vaccines of Wantai Bio.

According to the information disclosed by Wantai Bio, since the vaccine was approved for marketing in China in May 2020, the total number of approved and issued units has reached 2.46 million units, accounting for about 16% of the domestic market.

"The market share of domestic HPV vaccines increased to about 38% in 2021." The above-mentioned biopharmaceutical industry person introduced. GlaxoSmithKline, which has only a bivalent vaccine, has suffered a major impact. According to Tianfeng Securities data, the batch issuance of GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent vaccine in 2019 was 2.075 million, and it has been reduced by the entry of quadrivalent and nine-valent vaccines into China.

By 2020, after the domestic vaccine was launched, GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent vaccine sales fell by 66%, and the annual total issuance volume was only 690,000. At the same time, the pricing of domestic vaccines is more affordable, at 329 yuan per dose. Women aged 9-14 only need to receive 2 shots, and women aged 15-45 have 3 shots. The total cost of vaccination ranges from 650-1,000 yuan, while GlaxoSmithKline's single divalent HPV vaccine is close to 600 yuan.

GlaxoSmithKline also launched a cooperation project with the government in 2019. The three-year free vaccination program for women aged 13-18 years old was launched by Ordos City . The bivalent vaccine of GlaxoSmithKline was purchased.

A person from Ordos' health department told "Finance∙Big Health" that the project has been piloted in August 2020 and will be launched in April 2021. It is planned to cover nearly 50,000 people per year. 40% of the target population have completed the first dose of vaccination.

"When the domestic vaccine was purchased, it was not yet available for sale, and this was a poverty alleviation project, and the purchase price of the vaccine was lower than that of the domestic ones now." The above-mentioned Ordos Health and Health Personnel said.

Merck, which has two HPV vaccines, quadrivalent and nine-valent, has no such government projects that can be found. The relevant person in charge said, "No information is available for external sharing."

Three years later, it may enter the price war

The situation where only one domestic HPV vaccine is about to be broken.

Watson Bio (300142.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform on January 4 that the company's bivalent HPV vaccine application and production are being carried out normally in accordance with relevant procedures of the drug supervision department, and the nine-valent HPV vaccine is carrying out related work for phase III clinical preparation.

"Cervical Cancer Vaccine Market Research Report" shows that based on the winning bid price of the product in the domestic market and the rough estimate of the batch issuance volume, the market demand scale of China's HPV in 2020 was about 11.8 billion yuan, of which the demand scale of nine-valent vaccines and market demand scales were about 6.3 billion yuan, accounting for 53%; the quadrivalent vaccines were about 4.6 billion yuan, accounting for about 39%.

All parties are actively expanding their production capacity. Wantai Bio announced in July 2021 that it would add 10 million new cilin bottle production line, and the total production capacity of bivalent HPV vaccines reached 30 million units/year; Merck began to expand its US production plants as early as 2019, and it is expected that by 2023, it will be expected to increase supply to meet US and global demand.

More than ten domestic companies are conducting research on HPV vaccines, not only nine-valent, but also multiple varieties such as eleven-valent, fourteen-valent, and fourteen-valent. More than ten products have entered the third phase clinical trials.

participating in the development of Wantai Bio's HPV vaccine , deputy dean of Xiamen University School of Public Health, analyzed to "Finance∙Big Health" that domestic HPV vaccines are expected to be in a period of supply in short supply for about three years, and the supply will exceed demand in the future, and it is likely to enter the era of national immunization planning, with prices falling sharply.

According to the statistics of the Forward Economist in 2021, since the HPV vaccine was launched in China, the cumulative number of vaccinated people has been around 9.74 million. Every year, a large number of girls join the appropriate age group. In 2020, there were 4.745 million newborn girls registered in the public security system.

"The gradual expansion of children's vaccination, and the stock of adult vaccination is gradually digesting." The above-mentioned biopharmaceutical industry insiders analyzed that the market advantage of imported vaccines may be overturned in three to five years.

If domestic vaccines want to gain market advantages, "first we must ensure that the product quality is not inferior to imported vaccines." Zhang Jun believes that companies that go on the market earlier will have first-mover advantages, and more importantly, it depends on who can control the cost and maintain high product competitiveness under low prices.