South Korea's largest opposition party National Power won the local by-election on the 7th. The party's Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Seo-hoon rose his arms to celebrate
[World View News] South Korea held a by-election of local chiefs and parliamentarians on the 7th. The ruling party common Democratic Party was defeated in the two metropolitan mayoral elections. In addition to officially declaring that the government of Moon Jae-in has entered a lame state, it also indicates that the South Korean presidential election may change in March next year. If conservatives with relatively pro-US and anti-China positions conquered the presidential throne next year, South Korea's diplomatic line may turn a big turn.
Scholars analyzed that South Korean conservatives are likely to continue the momentum of this victory and win next year's presidential election. In the current complicated situation in Northeast Asia, the situation on the peninsula is at a deadlock and the U.S. government strengthens its ally relations, a South Korean president with a right-leaning position may adopt a completely different foreign policy.
The epidemic in South Korea has been ups and downs, and the people are dissatisfied with the government's actions to prevent the epidemic. Coupled with the scandal of internal land speculation by public officials before the election, and the soaring housing prices in metropolitan areas such as Seoul have caused the ruling party to collapse. James, a researcher at the Asan Policy Research Institute, a Korean think tank. Kim said: "This mayoral election has become a referendum on the ruling party." Jessica, an expert on South Korea issues at the Quincy Institute, Washington think tank, said that the left and right in South Korea's political circles have completely different views on foreign policy. Under Moon Jae-in's rule, South Korea prioritized cooperation with North Korea, avoided side positions between the United States and the mainland, and adopted a diplomatic approach that "had a stable effect on the region."
As for the South Korean conservatives, they have always been hostile to North Korea in the past and are skeptical of China. In the past, the conservative government has more stance on security issues and is more willing to conduct large-scale military exercises with the United States or approve the deployment of US missile defense systems, and is willing to anger Beijing and Pyongyang . The South Korean president, who adopts traditional foreign policy scripts and right-leaning stance, may intensify tensions on the Korean Peninsula and reduce the possibility of dealing with the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Recently, South Korean conservatives seem to support joining forces with the United States to fight against China more than liberals. On the occasion of US Secretary of State 3 Blinken visiting South Korea last month, Kim Jong-in, chairman of the conservative National Forces Party, said that South Korea should join the "Quad Security Dialogue" (Quad) formed by the United States, Japan, Australia and India to jointly fight against the increasingly tough China.
Seoul Kyung Hee University political science professor Kim Min-jin (transliteration), said: "South Korean conservatives found their political legitimacy through the South Korean-US alliance. Now this means that their policy toward China will move closer to Washington." A poll released by the Chicago Global Affairs Committee this week showed that South Korean people firmly support conservatives in their policy toward China. More than 80% of South Korean people regard China as a national security threat, and another 60% regard it as an economic threat.
(Editor-in-Chief: Li Xiang)