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, the highly anticipated 2022 Nobel Prize will be announced one after another in early October. Before that, the committee protected the information of nominees without missing a trace - except insiders, no one knows who will win the award, and even does not know whether the candidate in his mind is on the shortlist. But is everything really nowhere to be found? "Market Forecasting Method" may help Nobel Prize fans smell some clues.
The new Nobel Prize is about to come out
According to the official website of the Nobel Prize, from October 3 to October 7, the Nobel Prize in Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, Literature, and Peace Prize will announce the list of winners every day, aiming to commend those who "make the greatest contribution to mankind" in physiology or medicine, physics, chemistry, literature and peace. The award ceremony of
is held by the king on December 10th every year, the anniversary of the death of Nobel . The award ceremony was held by the king in Sweden capital Stockholm and Norway capital Oslo respectively. On September 24, 2020, Lars Hekensten, chairman of the Nobel Foundation , said that the 2020 Nobel Prize prize will be increased to 10 million Swedish kroner (about 6.357 million yuan).
In addition, the Nobel Prize Committee announced a resumption of the awarding ceremony from 2020 to 2021 due to the epidemic. Therefore, the 2020 and 2021 Nobel Prize winners will join the latest 2022 winners to attend the award ceremony and dinner held in Stockholm, Sweden in December. How to scientifically predict the winning results of
?
Who will win the Nobel Prize in 2022? Wikipedia believes that Physiology or Medical Prize has several competitors, the Peace Prize has about 20 possible nominees, and the Literature Prize has dozens of candidates. However, the selection unit Swedish Academy has never announced the candidate list in advance, so it is difficult to predict who will win the award, and even whether that person is on the candidate list is a question.
Can fans of the Nobel Prize really have to wait for the results? Daniel O'Leary, professor of accounting information systems at the University of Southern California, proposed a "market forecasting method" to capture "the wisdom of the masses" by creating an environment similar to the stock market, thereby gaining insight into people's opinions about the future. “When many independent opinions are combined, groups tend to be smarter than individuals,” O’Leary said.
"In the process of making market forecasts, participants buy and sell stocks. The price of each stock will be related to different events that occur in the future, and information about the future will also be recorded in these sensitive stock prices." O'Leary added that we can assume a forecast market for Nobel Peace Prize . In this market, maybe Greta Thunberg will trade for $0.10, while Pope Francis will trade for $0.15, while the stock price of the entire candidate group will add up to $1.
"market forecasting method" is not groundless, and the Iowa Electronics Market also adopted a similar approach during the 2020 US presidential election. According to the model at the time, if the Democratic candidate wins, the stock DEM2020 pays $1, otherwise it will be $0. If the Republican candidate wins, stock REP 2020 pays $1, otherwise $0. Stock prices reflect the probability of each candidate winning in two mutually exclusive events. If the price of DEM2020 is US$0.52, then the probability of an event happening is 52%, and another mutually exclusive event is 48%.
"Politics has now replaced Central Bank has seized the steering wheel of the world's financial markets," said Christopher Wood, equity strategist at CLSA. The accuracy of spending real money to make predictions was also confirmed later. On the eve of the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, the Iowa Electronics Market showed that the probability that the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives is 64%. Many financial analysts pointed out at the time that the current political ecology of the United States has been very unfavorable to the Republican Party.
"The market forecasting method does not operate in a vacuum, because it is real money and silver, participants will enter the market with their knowledge more carefully." O'Leary said that the information about the incident will also enter the prediction process through various sources, including those insiders. Statistical results show that in the presidential election, the "market forecasting method" performed better than the polls about 75% of the time.
"Of course, there is no guarantee that the results will always be accurate." O'Leary emphasized that, for example, the "market forecasting method" did not successfully infer that Donald Trump won the US presidential election in 2016. What is the experience of winning the Nobel Prize in
?
If one morning you receive a call, the other party speaks to you in a Swedish English: Congratulations, you won the Nobel Prize! What was your first reaction? Excited? surprise? Or do you think the other party is a liar? Physics Today records the anecdotes of some Nobel Prize winners when they receive the award notice. "Facts have proved that the Nobel Prize winners are also ordinary people who are pushed into extraordinary environments."
Applause Thunder
In 1999, Gerard 't Hooft, of the University of Utrecht, the Netherlands, burst into particularly warm applause when he gave a speech on gravity and quantum physics . "The applause was longer and louder than I expected. I was indeed good at speaking, but it was not as good as this. Why did they applaud so fiercely?" Huft was very puzzled.
At that time, the day of Huft’s speech happened to be the time when the Nobel Prize in Physics was announced that year. Huft’s students printed out the announcement and projected it onto the screen. In other words, everyone present knew that he had won the award, but he only didn't know that because he had his back to the screen. "Look at the screen!" a viewer shouted. "Until then. I realized that this would be a special moment that would change my life," Khuft recalled.
Incredible
David Thouless and Kosterlitz (Michael Kosterlitz) were the first two scientists to engage in topological phase transition research in the 1970s. More than 40 years later, in the fall of 2016, Kostritz was on vacation. As he walked through the underground parking lot hungry, preparing to go to a mall to buy sushi and beer, his cell phone rang, and the other party congratulated him in Swedish accent English.
"Nonsense! Nobel Prize! Nobel Prize?" Kostritz felt incredible. "Are he saying I won the Nobel Prize? Are you wrong?" In fact, Kostritz engaged in this research in the mid-1970s and the project has been over for decades. Kostritz had no idea that his achievements would be noticed.
"I tried to calm down and say something, but I was very surprised and couldn't say anything, so there was a 30-second silence." Kostritz recalled, "In the end, the only thing I could think of was to shout ' Jesus ', and the conversation ended like this."
After dinner, talk
On the morning of October 13, 1993, astrophysicist Joseph Hooton Taylor was sleeping at his home in Princeton, New Jersey, when his wife was woken up by a phone call from Stockholm. The caller was a Swedish journalist, not the Nobel Committee. The reporter told him that he had just won the Nobel Prize in Physics. Then there was a series of calls from journalists and blessingers.
Taylor and his wife chose to unplug the phone and finish their breakfast quietly. This also led to Taylor never receiving an official call from the Nobel Committee.
"I only take one call"
Chief Professor David J. Wineland won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2012 for his pioneering research in the field of quantum optics .He recalled that the phone kept ringing from 4 a.m. Starting from 5 o'clock, a large number of reporters appeared at Wen Lan's doorstep. After hearing the call from the Nobel Prize Committee, Wen Lan said to his wife: "It's so crazy, I don't plan to answer the remaining calls."
After ignoring the hundreds of ringtones that day, Wen Lan was about to go home at around 5:30 in the afternoon. As he left the office, the phone rang again. Wen Lan thought as if she had received some perception: Why don’t you answer this last call? The other party asked, "Are you David Wenlan?" Wenlan said yes, and then he said, "This is Air Force One ." "This call was actually called by President Obama!" Wenlan was shocked by this wonderful coincidence.
News source: BBC, Today's Physics, Business Weekly, Some pictures are from the Internet
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