△ Founder Securities Senior investment consultant Zhao Yucheng Investment Consulting Certificate No. 122061109000
On the last trading day before the National Day holiday, the market still failed to stop the decline.
A shares have been adjusted for more than two consecutive months since early July, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also a short distance from 3,000 points. Recently, there has been a phenomenon of killing one blue-chip stock in a day. Whether it is value investors or technology investors, confidence has been severely hit. Where should
go in this position? First, let’s put forward the point: the fourth quarter should be more difficult.
The reasons are as follows: 1. In terms of technical form, from the perspective of Elliott wave theory, it is currently a typical C wave decline. Although the downward rate of wave C falls is not fast, it is often long and the overall sells downward is often unexpectedly large. Especially in the mid-to-late period of C wave, the market hardly sees continuous hot spots.
2. The possibility of a global economic recession is getting greater and greater. Federal 's latest expectations for the U.S. unemployment rate in 2022 and 2023 are 3.8% and 4.4%. Europe is even more dismal. Due to the high energy prices, a large number of European manufacturing companies are either forced to transfer their production bases abroad, or shut down or go bankrupt. Recently, the Nord Stream pipeline has been destroyed, and the market is even more pessimistic about Europe's economic expectations. Once the global economy enters a recession, China, as a manufacturing power, will inevitably be dragged down.
3. During the previous Football World Cup, most global stock markets were sluggish. This World Cup is not the traditional start of June, but is held on Qatar from November 21 to December 18.
In summary, it is recommended that investors hold shares at low positions in the fourth quarter, and watch more and move less or be a better operational choice.
Xiaoxiang Morning News reporter Chen Haijun
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