According to CCTV News on October 3, on October 2 local time, the first round of voting for the Brazilian general election ended, and the voting will end at 17:00 on the same day, and the counting results are expected to be announced that night.

Editor of every business: Bi Luming

According to CCTV News on October 3, on October 2 local time, the first round of voting for Brazilian election ended, and the voting will end at 17:00 on the same day, and the counting results are expected to be announced that night. As this election continues to use the electronic voting system, the first round results are expected to be announced within hours after the voting ends.

It is worth noting that according to Xinhua News Agency on September 30, the left-wing Labor Party candidate, former president Lula and the current president Bolsonaro who runs as a candidate for Liberal Party lead the poll rankings. strives to win over swing voters, seek "strategic voting" among voters in the middle camp, and raise the opposition rate of the other side, becoming the three most fierce competition points for the two sides.

On October 2, Brazil's right-wing Liberal Party candidate and current President Bolsonaro participated in the voting at a polling station in Rio de Janeiro . Image source: Xinhua News Agency

The first round of voting ended

According to CCTV News on the 3rd, At 17:00 local time on October 2, the first round of voting for the Brazilian general election ended, and the vote counting work began immediately. The voting results are expected to be announced several hours later.

This election will elect Brazil's new president and vice president, chief and deputy governor of 27 state-level administrative regions, and members of federal and local parliament at all levels. Among them, Brazil's presidential election has attracted much attention from the international community. Presidential candidates who won more than half of the votes in the first round of voting will directly win the election. If no candidate receives more than half of the votes, the candidates with the top two votes will enter the second round of competition held on October 30. In the second round of voting, the one who wins the most votes wins. Among the 11 candidates participating in the presidential election, former President Lula and current President Bolsonaro have led the support.

According to the Brazilian Election Law, in the first round of voting, if a presidential candidate wins more than 50%, it means winning; if no one gets more than half of the votes in the first round of voting, the two candidates with the most votes will decide the winner in the second round of voting held on October 30. According to statistics from the Brazilian High Election Court, there are 156 million registered voters this year, an increase of 6.21% from the 2018 general election.

On October 2, voters participated in the voting station in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Image source: Xinhua News Agency

focuses on the three major competition points

According to Xinhua News Agency on September 30, in the latest poll released by Brazilian consulting agencies Welfare Poll, Ipek and Quaest, 17%, 12%, and 29% of voters said that they have not yet determined their voting intentions. These swing voters have a more concentrated group of women and some of the lower education and lower income groups. 5 Since mid-September, Lula and Bolsonaro have made efforts almost at the same time to win over these voters.

Lulah recently asked his supporters to convince swing voters around him “with a sense of responsibility to change the country.” He showed goodwill to swing voters during his September 17 campaign, saying that the country needs to respect and protect the rights of all people, regardless of gender, race or social class. He also frequently shouted to swing voters. For example, he told the female group on September 14: "It's not that there is a great woman behind a great man, but that there is a great woman by his side." At the same time, he also launched a series of social welfare policies to win the support of low-income groups.

On October 2, Brazil's left-wing Labor Party candidate and former President Lula voted at a polling station at São Paulo . Image source: Xinhua News Agency

According to the rules of Brazil's presidential election, if a candidate receives more than half of the votes in the first round of voting, he will be directly elected, otherwise the two who receive the most votes will decide the winner in the second round of voting. Local media analysts pointed out that the left-wing camp was originally more advantageous among women, low-education and low-income groups, but now these groups are swaying in voting intentions, which may affect the election strategy of Lula's team in the first round of the victory or defeat.

For the left and right camps, supporters of the middle camp are more sensitive to political trends and election propaganda, and their "strategic voting" has an uninjustable value.The so-called "strategic voting" refers to the election where more than two candidates participate, if voters think that the candidate they support does not have a chance to win, they strategically choose to vote for other candidates to prevent their most hated candidate from being elected.

In fact, both Gomez and Tebet fought back against the "strategic voting" propaganda offensive of Lula's team, and Tebet even directly denounced that "strategic voting" was "disrespect for the Brazilian people." Lavareda believes that compared with Bolsonaro's direct attack, Gomez and Tebert's counterattack "has more harm to Lula's image."

Quao Este's latest poll released in mid-September showed that voter opposition to Lula has risen from 40% in the same period last year to 47%, while Bolsonaro's opposition has dropped from 62% to 52%. The gap in opposition between the two narrowed from 22 percentage points to 5 percentage points.

On October 2, voters took their children to vote at a polling station in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Image source: Xinhua News Agency

Opposition rate reflects the degree of disacceptance of voters to candidates. Candidates with high opposition rates have difficulty winning directly in the first round of votes. Political commentator of Brazil's Reading Weekly believes that behind Lula's team's hope for direct victory in the first round is the concern that anti-Labor Party forces will unite in the second round of voting. Claudio Coto, a political scientist at the Vagas Foundation in Brazil, said that Lula currently has more than 40% approval rating in most polls. Bolsonaro's top priority is to pull Golula's opposition rate and prevent Lula from winning directly in the first round of votes.

Some Brazilian media and political observers believe that the fierce confrontation around the above three major competition points shows that the main presidential candidates attach great importance to the first round of voting. Even if they cannot achieve their contributions, they must at least win the lead, and win more support and create greater momentum for the second round of voting.

According to the poll results recently released by several Brazilian consulting agencies, from the overall situation, Lula and Bolsonaro in the left and right wing camps are still leading significantly, while Gomez and Tebert in the middle camps performed well in the election debate, but their support ratings did not exceed 10%. However, the support ratings of the two leading the way vary greatly among different poll results, and the situation and final outcome of the Brazilian election are still full of suspense.

The accuracy of the pre-election poll is to be tested

According to CCTV News on September 25, analysts pointed out that Brazil's current economic situation is improving, which is beneficial to the current president Bolsonaro's election. According to data released by the statistical department recently, Brazil's GDP reached 2.4 trillion real (1 real 1 is about 1.33 yuan), an increase of 1.2% over the previous quarter, achieving positive growth for four consecutive quarters. In view of this, the Brazilian Ministry of Economic Affairs said on September 15 that it has increased its 2022 economic growth forecast from 2% in July to 2.7%. Brazil's economic indicators such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, and public finance have also improved recently. In the second quarter of this year, Brazil's unemployment rate fell to 9.1%, with nearly 100 million employed people, setting a new record since 2012. In terms of price index, inflation has declined for two consecutive months. Brazil's Ministry of Economic Affairs expects that Brazil's cumulative inflation rate will drop to 6.3% by the end of this year.

Although the results of many polls show that Lula's public opinion support rate is higher than that of Bolsonaro, many investment companies, including Goldman Sachs, said recently that the final result of the election may be "obviously different" from the poll results. Goldman Sachs Group pointed out in a report released on September 22 that this year's presidential election "is very likely to be decided in the second round." The report also said that since mid-2021, there have been few voters who have "not decided who to choose" and Bolsonaro's supporters may be more active, while Lula supporters may be relatively more likely to give up on voting.

Brazilian investment company ACE Capital released its monthly report in early September stating that the results of the Brazilian general election since 2002 proved that there is a "very obvious" difference between the poll results and the first round of voting results, and it is "inappropriate" to regard the current poll results as the basis for speculating on the actual results. The report also said that as Brazil's economic situation becomes favorable to the current president and in the absence of major "anomalous variables", the election may be "more intense than most analysts expect."

Daily Economic News Comprehensive CCTV News, Xinhua News Agency

Daily Economic News