In the first half of 2022, the national power supply and demand were generally balanced, and some areas were affected by climate fluctuations in some periods of electricity supply. At the enterprise level, some thermal power companies have turned losses into profits due to the increase in on-grid electricity prices, but due to the continued high fluctuation of coal prices, thermal power companies are still facing great cost control pressure.
comprehensively considers the domestic and international epidemics, macroeconomics, fuel supply, climate change and other factors. It is expected that in the second half of 2022, the national power supply and demand will be generally balanced. The current role of fire voltage tank is still extremely important, but in the future, affected by factors such as the continuous advancement of market-oriented power reform and the goals of " carbon peak " and "carbon neutrality", the power supply structure will gradually transform to green and low-carbon, the degree of squeeze of clean energy electricity on thermal power is intensified, and the peak-shaving effect of thermal power units will gradually become prominent.
credit bonds, the scale of bond issuance by thermal power enterprises in the first half of 2022 increased year-on-year. The bond issuing enterprises are mainly central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises. The overall qualifications of enterprises are good, financing channels are smooth and financing capabilities are strong. In the second half of 2022, although the scale of bonds redeemed in the power industry is large, the overall debt repayment risk of the industry is controllable.
1. Operation of the power industry in the first half of 2022
In the first half of 2022, the national power supply and demand were generally balanced, and the electricity consumption of the whole society increased year-on-year. The electricity consumption of primary industries and urban and rural residents has grown rapidly. Affected by the epidemic in some regions, the growth rate of electricity consumption in industrial and manufacturing industries is lower than the average level of the whole society. From April to May 2022, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased negatively for two consecutive months. In June 2022, with the ease of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society that month was obvious. In the first half of 2022, the growth rate of investment in various power sources drove the increase in total installed power capacity, the proportion of coal-fired power installed capacity decreased, and the trend of green and low-carbon transformation of power structures was obvious.
1. Electricity usage in the whole society
In the first half of 2022, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the whole country was 4.10 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.90%. In the first and second quarters of 2022, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 5.0% and 0.8% year-on-year respectively. Among them, due to factors such as the epidemic in some regions from April to May, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by two consecutive months, resulting in a significant decline in the growth rate in the second quarter.
Due to the severe impact of the epidemic prevention and control situation in the second quarter, production and operation of some industries were restricted. In the first half of 2022, the electricity consumption growth rate of the three major industries all declined year-on-year.
In the first half of 2022, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 51.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year, mainly due to the country's in-depth promotion of the rural revitalization strategy in recent years, as well as the improvement of rural electricity consumption conditions and the continuous improvement of electrification levels, driving the continuous release of the power potential of the primary industry. In the first half of 2022, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 2.74 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 15.3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, due to severe factors in the epidemic prevention and control situation in the second quarter, production in some industries was restricted, and electricity consumption in the secondary industry showed negative growth. From April to May 2022, electricity consumption in the secondary industry decreased by 1.4% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively. From the perspective of growth rate structure, in the secondary industry, the year-on-year growth rates of electricity consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, other manufacturing industries, consumer goods manufacturing, and the four major high-energy-loading industries were 1.8%, 3.3%, -0.4%, and 0.2%, respectively. The growth rate of the four major high-energy-loading industries has slowed down. In addition to the impact of the good resumption of work and production due to the large electricity consumption base last year due to the control of the national epidemic, the general insufficient operating rate of the high-energy-loading industry is also an important factor. Among them, the electricity consumption situation in the chemical industry was relatively good, with electricity consumption increasing by 4.9% year-on-year; affected by the current sluggish real estate market, the electricity consumption of the relevant ferrous metal smelting industry and the building materials industry decreased by 2.8% and 4.6% year-on-year respectively, and the electricity consumption of the cement industry in building materials decreased by 16.3% year-on-year. In the first half of 2022, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the domestic high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry was significantly higher than the average level of the manufacturing industry during the same period. Among them, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing, computer/communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, and instrument manufacturing industry exceeded 5%, reflecting the current trend of upgrading the manufacturing industry and the growth of new momentum. In the first half of 2022, the tertiary industry electricity consumption was 693.8 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 22.7 percentage points year-on-year. The tertiary industry was particularly affected by the epidemic.In the second quarter of 2022, the electricity consumption of the transportation/warehousing and postal industries, accommodation and catering industries all fell by more than 10%. Affected by the growth of air conditioner cooling load driven by abnormal high temperatures in summer, in the first half of 2022, the household electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 611.2 billion kWh, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 5.1 percentage points from the same period last year. In June 2022, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 17.7% year-on-year, among which Shaanxi, Shanghai, Hebei and Chongqing increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
points to the region, 's electricity consumption in the central region of has led the year-on-year growth rate. In the first half of 2022, the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the east, central, western and northeastern regions was 1879.4 billion kWh, 784.4 billion kWh, 121.04 billion kWh and 223.5 billion kWh, respectively, an increase of 1.1%, 6.9%, 3.5% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively. In the first half of 2022, the electricity consumption of the whole society in 26 provinces achieved positive growth, among which 11 provinces including Tibet, Anhui, Hubei, Sichuan, Qinghai, Ningxia, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Henan, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang increased by more than 5% year-on-year.
2. Power production and supply
(1) Power investment
Affected by the growth rate of thermal power and photovoltaic power supply investment, power investment increased by 14.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2022, and non-fossil energy power generation investment accounted for a high proportion of power investment.
In terms of power investment, in the first half of 2022, the power supply project of major power generation enterprises across the country completed 215.8 billion yuan, an increase of 14.0% year-on-year. Among them, affected by policy support, the investment scale of wind power and photovoltaic power supply is large, but due to factors such as the rush to install wind power and high unit cost of offshore wind power in 2021, wind power investment is 56.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.4%; photovoltaic investment is 63.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 283.6%; during the same period, hydropower investment was 35.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%; nuclear power investment is 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; thermal power investment is 34.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.8%, a year-on-year increase of 9,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.4%, and the increase is significantly mainly due to the important role of thermal power in energy supply and power peak shaving coupled with the growth of investment in the flexibility transformation of thermal power. In terms of investment structure, non-fossil energy power generation investment accounts for 86.5% of the power supply investment. During the same period, the national power grid project investment reached 190.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%.
(2) Installation capacity
In the first half of 2022, the growth of power investment drove the increase in total installed power capacity, the proportion of coal-fired power installed capacity decreased, and the trend of green and low-carbon transformation of power structures was obvious.
As of the end of June 2022, the national installed capacity of full-caliber power generation was 2.44 billion kilowatts, an increase of 8.1% from the end of June 2021. Among them, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 1.18 billion kilowatts, an increase of 14.8% from the end of June 2021, accounting for 48.2% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. The installed capacity of thermal power is 1.3 billion kilowatts, of which 1.11 billion kilowatts of coal-fired power are accounted for 45.5% of the total installed capacity of power generation. In the first half of 2022, the national installed capacity of new power generation was 69.1 million kilowatts, an increase of 33.22% year-on-year, and the proportion of thermal power among the new installed capacity decreased by 14.77 percentage points. Under the goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality", the power industry has a clear trend of green and low-carbon transformation.
(3) Utilization hours and power generation
Due to factors such as the decline in electricity demand during some periods, high fluctuations in the price of electricity coal, and the enhanced peak-shaving effect of thermal power units in the first half of 2022, the average utilization hours of thermal power units in the country decreased significantly year-on-year. Affected by this, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment across the country decreased slightly. In the first half of 2022, the national power generation increased slightly with the increase in installed capacity, and the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity increased further.
In the first half of 2022, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1,777 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 81 hours. Among them, due to the decline in electricity demand in the whole society during some periods, the center of coal prices remained at a high level, which led to the decline in the willingness of thermal power enterprises to generate power, and the enhanced peak-shaving effect of thermal power equipment in the country, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment in the country were 2,057 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 133 hours. Among them, the average utilization hours of coal-fired power generation equipment were 2139 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 123 hours; the average utilization hours of gas-fired power generation equipment were 1090 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 239 hours.
In the first half of 2022, the total power generation of large-scale power plants in the country was 396.31 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 13.00 percentage points year-on-year.Among them, the thermal power generation was 272.77 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. From the perspective of regional division, in the first half of 2022, the cross-regional output power increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the cross-provincial output power increased by 4.9% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of cross-regional power transmission in the second quarter rebounded significantly, and cross-regional power transmission in June increased by 18.9% year-on-year. With the economic recovery and high temperatures that month, the power supply in some provinces in Central China and East China was tight, and the cross-regional power support was increased. In addition, with the gradual advancement of market-oriented reform of electricity, the scale of market-oriented transaction electricity has grown rapidly. In the first half of 2022, the total electricity trading centers across the country organized a total of 248.259 billion kilowatt-hours of market transactions, an increase of 45.8% year-on-year, accounting for 60.6% of the total electricity consumption in the society, an increase of 17.3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the total medium- and long-term direct electricity transaction volume of the national power market was 1997.07 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 45.0% year-on-year.
3. Coal cost and thermal power industry benefits
In the first half of 2022, benefiting from the promotion of coal supply guarantee policies, the growth rate of domestic raw coal production increased, and the price of power coal market maintained a high fluctuation.
Since the second half of 2021, driven by downstream demand for economic recovery and winter storage, coal demand has increased, coupled with the tight coal supply pattern, driving the rapid increase in coal market prices. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, under the influence of supply guarantee policies, my country's monthly coal output has increased. Except for the Spring Festival holiday in February 2022, the monthly coal output in the first half of 2022 has basically remained around 300 million tons; in terms of coal imports, in the first half of 2022, a total of 115 million tons of coal imported in China, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, mainly due to the serious inversion of the price of medium and high-speed coal in China and the severe inhibition of coal exports at the price of medium and high-speed coal at home and abroad, which has inhibited coal imports to a certain extent and the temporary suspension of coal exports by Indonesian , as the main importer of my country's coal. Since the overall proportion of imported coal is low, fluctuations in import volume have a general impact on domestic coal supply. At the same time, due to policies such as the increase in the proportion of long-term contract contracts and the price limit of long-term contract contracts, the price of power coal fell rapidly, but the overall level remained at a high level. Taking the market price of thermal coal (Q5500) produced in Shanxi, Qinhuangdao Port, as an example, the thermal coal price reached its highest point of 2592 yuan/ton in October 2021, and then fell rapidly, and basically maintained the level of 900~1100 yuan/ton in the first half of 2022.
Affected by the high coal costs, thermal power companies suffered serious losses in 2021, and most companies turned losses into losses in the first half of 2022.
Since April 2021, with the increase in downstream industrial demand growth after the peak summer and the epidemic has been under control, coupled with factors such as the restricted imported coal and the growth rate of downstream coal demand continues to be greater than the growth rate of raw coal supply, the coal supply and demand pattern has tightened, and coal prices have continued to rise, especially in the second half of the year, which has led to a significant decline in the profit level of thermal power companies. Among the 49 thermal power bond generation companies we selected [1], 43 operating losses in the second half of 2021, with a total profit loss of 154.792 billion yuan. In the first half of 2022, although coal prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, they had significantly declined compared with the level in the fourth quarter of 2021. Benefiting from the moderate relaxation of electricity price restrictions, the average on-grid electricity price of thermal power has increased. Although the profit level of thermal power enterprises has decreased year-on-year, it has rebounded significantly compared with the second half of 2021. Only 14 thermal power enterprises have suffered operating losses, with a total profit loss of 12.023 billion yuan, and thermal power enterprises have turned losses into profits as a whole.
2. Main policies and dynamic comments of the thermal power industry in the first half of 2022
Keyword 1: Market-oriented transaction
On January 25, 2022, the Guangzhou Electric Power Trading Center issued the "Notice on Issuing the "Southern Region Green Power Trading Rules (Trial)", Regulations Regulations on the market members of the southern region's green power transaction are divided into electricity sales entities, power purchase entities, transmission entities and market operation institutions according to their market roles. Green power trading includes two forms: direct transaction and subscription transaction. green electric transaction price consists of electricity energy prices and environmental premiums, and is formed through market-oriented methods based on the declaration status of market entities.
On January 28, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Power Market System", proposing to improve the power price formation mechanism, unify and standardize the price rules of the power market in various places, and effectively balance the supply and demand of electricity.Orderly promote all industrial and commercial users to enter the power market, and ensure that the electricity prices for residents, agriculture, public welfare undertakings, etc. are relatively stable.
On March 3, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Accelerating the Construction of the Electric Power Spot Market", pointing out that it supports the uninterrupted operation of the qualified spot pilot projects and form a long-term and stable spot market as soon as possible. In principle, the first batch of pilot areas (Guangdong, Mengxi, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Shandong, Fujian, Sichuan, Gansu) will carry out long-term continuous trial operation of the spot market in 2022, and in principle, the second batch of pilot areas (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Liaoning, Henan, Hubei) will start trial operation of the spot market before the end of June 2022. Other regions will carry out spot market construction work as soon as possible. At the end of June 2022, inter-provincial spot trading started trial operation.
On May 25, 2022, the Beijing Electric Power Trading Center issued the "Notice on Issuing the "Implementation Rules for Green Electric Power Trading in Beijing Electric Power Trading Center". In the early stage, the power generation companies participating in green electricity trading were mainly new energy companies such as wind power and photovoltaics. Green power trading priority organizations will participate in the transaction of wind power and photovoltaic power that are not included in the national renewable energy electricity price surcharge policy; wind power and photovoltaic power that are included in the national renewable energy electricity price surcharge policy can voluntarily participate in the green power transaction, and the green power transaction volume will not be included in the reasonable utilization hours and will not receive subsidies; distributed new energy can participate in the green power transaction through aggregation.
Comment: Promoting the construction of a national unified power market system will help solve the current problems of incomplete system, imperfect functions, inconsistent trading rules, and market barriers in cross-provincial and cross-regional transactions, and will help build a power market system suitable for my country's energy resource endowment and new energy development. Green power trading is not only an expansion of the original medium- and long-term power trading, but also a major mechanism innovation in my country's power market. The core is to give full play to the role of the market, fully reflect the power and environmental value of green power in transaction prices, promote the formation of a virtuous cycle of actively consuming green power, fully reflecting the environmental value, and promoting the development of new energy, and achieve the goal of win-win results on both sides of development and use.
Keywords 2: Modern Energy System
On March 22, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy Systems". The document has made top-level designs for the construction of a modern energy system from several aspects such as strengthening emergency safety control, promoting the construction of a new power system, innovating the structure form and operating mode of the power grid, enhancing the coordinated and optimized operation capabilities of power supply, accelerating the large-scale application of new energy storage technology, and vigorously improving the elasticity of power loads, providing detailed policy rules and implementation paths for the development of all links of power. In promoting the construction of a new power system, we must increase efforts to plan and build a new energy supply and consumption system based on large wind and photoelectric bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal-fired power supply and consumption systems, and actively promote the integrated development of source, grid, load and storage.
Specifically, the main goals of the construction of a modern energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are: the comprehensive energy productivity reaches 4.6 billion tons of standard coal (200 million tons of crude oil, 3230 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and 3 billion kW of installed power generation); the cumulative decrease of carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 18% in five years; the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5%; the proportion of non-fossil energy generation reaches 39%; the consumption of non-fossil energy reaches 20%; the electrification rate reaches 30%; the proportion of flexible regulation power supply reaches 34%; and the response capacity of the power demand side reaches 3% to 5% of the maximum power load.
Comments: The development goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy Systems" focus more on energy security, low-carbon transformation and innovative development. Among them, ensuring safety is the primary task of energy development. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we will strengthen the construction of comprehensive energy guarantee capacity from multiple dimensions such as strategic security, operational security, and emergency safety.Secondly, the "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for carbon peak. The focus of green and low-carbon energy development is to do a good job in "addition" to increase the supply capacity of clean energy and "subtraction" to reduce carbon emissions in the energy industry chain, and promote the formation of a green and low-carbon energy consumption model. In addition, technological innovation is an important driving force for energy development. We need to accelerate the digital and intelligent upgrade of the energy industry, improve the energy technology and industrial innovation system, and accelerate the construction of a first-mover advantage to support the transformation and transformation of energy. Therefore, energy storage, hydrogen energy , new generation nuclear energy, carbon dioxide capture and utilization and storage, natural gas hydrate , etc. are frontier fields of science and technology and are new areas for future investment by enterprises.
Keyword 3: Balance income, ensure supply and stabilize price
On September 29, 2021, China Coal Industry Association and China Coal Transportation and Sales Association issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Supply of Electric Coal", requiring all enterprises to tap the potential for power coal to increase production, make every effort to increase the supply of electricity coal, and give priority to ensuring the long-term contract resources of power generation and heating users. In principle, in the fourth quarter, it must be cashed at no less than 1/4 of the annual contract volume. The signed long-term contract performance rate of the signed power coal contract must reach or exceed 100% in the fourth quarter.
On October 12, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of Coal-fired Power Generation On-grid Electricity Price" (Development and Reform Price [2021] No. 1439), proposing to orderly liberalize the on-grid electricity price of all coal-fired power generation power; expand the floating range of the transaction price of the coal-fired power generation market from the original upward floating not exceeding 10% and the downward floating not exceeding 15% to the upward floating not exceeding 20%, and the market trading electricity price of high-energy-consuming enterprises is not subject to the increase of 20% (the spot price of electricity is not subject to the above range); on the basis of maintaining the stability of the electricity prices for residents and agriculture, the sales electricity prices of industrial and commercial catalogs are cancelled to promote both industrial and commercial users to enter the market.
On December 3, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the draft for soliciting opinions on the 2022 coal long-term contract signing and performance plan at the National Coal Fair, proposing that all coal production enterprises with approved capacity of 300,000 tons or more be included in the 2022 coal contract signing scope, and required power generation and heating enterprises to sign 100% of coal other than imported coal; in terms of price, the pricing mechanism of "benchmark price + floating price" remains unchanged, with the adjustment range of 5500 kcal thermal coal between 550 and 850 yuan/ton, of which the benchmark price of the long-term contract of the coal in the water is 700 yuan/ton, an increase of about 31% from the previous 535 yuan.
On February 24, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Coal Market Price Formation Mechanism" (Development and Reform Price [2022] No. 303), which clearly stated that it is necessary to comprehensively use market-oriented and legal means to guide the price of coal (thermal coal) to operate within a reasonable range, improve the coal and electricity price transmission mechanism, and ensure safe and stable energy supply. The notice pointed out that based on the market operation, the medium- and long-term trading price of coal discharged from Qinhuangdao Port (5,500 kcal) is more reasonable (tax included) per ton, and it also clarifies the reasonable range of medium- and long-term trading prices in the corresponding coal mining output links in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and requires it to be implemented on May 1, 2022.
In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Establishing a Working Team to Promote Coal Increase and Supply Increase", requiring major coal-producing provinces and regions and central enterprises to make every effort to tap potential and expand their capacity, and release more than 300 million tons of production capacity within the year, of which 150 million tons come from newly put into production coal mines, and the additional 150 million tons of increments will be achieved through capacity increase, suspension of production coal mines and resumption of production. According to the above notice, many regions have successively announced production increase plans, such as Ordos announced the "Implementation Plan for the Ordos City Coal Increase and Supply and Price Stabilization Work", requiring the daily coal output to increase to 2.9 million tons. Shanxi Province announced the "Shanxi Province Coal Increase and Supply and Capacity New Work Plan", requiring the output to reach 1.3 billion tons in 2022, an increase of 107 million tons year-on-year.
On April 28, 2022, the State Council Tariff Commission issued the "Announcement on Adjusting Coal Import Tariffs", from May 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, a temporary tax rate for imports of 0 will be implemented on all coal.
On April 30, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement (No. 4 of 2022), further clarifying the four specific behaviors of coal industry operators to raise prices, emphasizing that the medium- and long-term transaction sales price shall not exceed the upper limit of the reasonable range of medium- and long-term transaction prices specified by relevant national or local documents, and the spot sales price of coal shall not exceed 50% of the upper limit of the reasonable range of medium- and long-term transaction prices specified by relevant national or local documents, that is, it shall not exceed 1,155 yuan/ton.
On May 11, 2022, with the approval of the State Council, People's Bank of China , the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice, clearly supporting the clean and efficient use of coal to increase the special re-loan quota of 100 billion yuan, specifically for areas related to coal development, use and enhancement of coal reserve capacity. Specific support areas include: First, the fields of coal production safety and reserve. Including projects such as modern coal mine construction, green and efficient technology application, intelligent mine construction, coal mine safety transformation, coal washing and selection, and coal reserve capacity building. The second is the field of coal-fired power enterprises to ensure the supply of electricity and coal. The notice clearly states that financial institutions should give priority to supporting project loans for coal production safety and reserves. For coal-fired power enterprises, the working capital loan for coal-fired power enterprises purchased by coal-fired power enterprises can apply for special re-loan support as required. After the increase of 100 billion yuan this time, the total amount of special re-loans to support the clean and efficient use of coal will reach 300 billion yuan.
Comments: Since 2021, the imbalance in coal supply and demand has led to a continued sharp rise in coal prices. Taking the market price of Shanxi thermal coal (Q5500) produced by Qinhuangdao Port as an example, the coal price has increased from 797.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to the peak of 2592.50 yuan/ton in October. In response to this, the country has intensively introduced a series of targeted policies to balance the level of coal supply and demand by promoting the release of high-quality coal production capacity and increasing coal imports, and ensure safe and stable energy supply; and to promote the return of power coal prices to a reasonable range by increasing the coverage of long-term contracts and strictly prohibiting irrational price raising, and stabilize the energy consumption costs of power enterprises. In the first half of 2022, the market price of thermal coal (Q5500) produced in Shanxi, Qinhuangdao Port, basically maintained a level of 900 to 1,100 yuan/ton. In addition, moderate relaxation of the on-grid electricity price restrictions will also help thermal power companies turn losses into profits.
3. Review of the bond market performance of thermal power enterprises in the first half of 2022
In the first half of 2022, the scale of bond issuance of thermal power enterprises increased year-on-year, and it was still concentrated in high-credit enterprises. The bond maturity structure is relatively balanced, the overall issuance cost has declined, and the credit spread remains at a low level. In the second half of 2022, the scale of maturing bonds of thermal power enterprises is relatively large, but due to the overall credit qualifications and strong financing capabilities of the enterprises, the overall debt repayment risk of thermal power industry is controllable.
1. Primary Market Overview
In the first half of 2022, thermal power companies [2] issued a total of 184 bonds, with a total issuance scale of 256.29 billion yuan, and the number of bonds issued and the total amount of bonds issued increased by 6.98% and 6.29% respectively compared with the same period in 2021. In the first half of 2022, the total bonds due by thermal power enterprises were 269.52 billion yuan, and the industry's bond net financing was -13.23 billion yuan. However, due to the significant increase in coal costs, thermal power enterprises suffered large-scale losses. Under the guidance of the policy, major banks have provided relatively low-cost guaranteed loans to thermal power enterprises, and the net increase in bank loans is enough to cover the net reduction in bond financing. Judging from the credit rating of the bond issuing entities, bond issuing companies in the thermal power industry are still concentrated in high-level companies. In the first half of 2022, there were 31 new bond thermal power companies, including 21 AAA-level enterprises, 9 AA+-level enterprises and 1 AA-level enterprise; and in the first half of 2021, there were 34 new bond thermal power companies, including 26 AAA-level enterprises, 6 AA+-level enterprises and 2 AA-level enterprises. In the first half of 2022, there was no credit rating migration in the power industry.
From the perspective of bond issuance maturity, the maturity structure of the thermal power enterprises issuing bonds is relatively balanced. Among the 184 bonds issued in the first half of 2022, the term of bonds is 108 with a total of 144.98 billion yuan, accounting for 56.57% of the total issuance quota (125 short-term bonds were issued in the same period of 2021, with an issuance scale of 172.13 billion yuan, accounting for 71.39% of the total issuance quota in the current period), mainly interbank ultra-short-term financing bond products.Among medium- and long-term bonds, newly issued 3-year bonds account for a high proportion. There were 52 3-year bonds issued in the first half of 2022, with an issuance scale of 83.21 billion yuan, accounting for 74.76% of the total issuance quota of medium- and long-term bonds. In terms of issuance costs of
, since the main bond issuing entities in the power industry are central enterprises with high credit ratings and local state-owned enterprises, the industry interest rate spread remains at a low level. The volatility trend of bond credit spreads in the power industry is in line with the trend of industrial bond credit spreads. Moreover, because the overall qualifications of enterprises in the power industry are good, the level of bond credit spreads in the power industry is lower than the level of industrial bond credit spreads.
2. Thermal power industry [3] Financial performance in the first half of 2022
From the perspective of financial indicators, in the first half of 2022, the asset scale of thermal power enterprises maintained a growth trend, the proportion of current assets increased year-on-year, and the total asset turnover rate remained stable year-on-year. In the first half of 2022, although coal prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, they had significantly declined from the level in the fourth quarter of 2021. Benefiting from the increase in on-grid electricity prices, the profit levels of thermal power companies have declined year-on-year, but have rebounded from the level of the whole year in 2021, turning losses into profits. In the first half of 2022, the capacity of thermal power companies to achieve realization remained at a good level, and the debt burden and debt repayment capacity indicator did not change much year-on-year.
3. The maturity of thermal power enterprise bonds in the second half of 2022
As of the end of June 2022, there were 741 surviving bonds in the thermal power industry, with a total balance of 1122.091 billion yuan. Among them, the total amount of due in the second half of 2022 was 314.456 billion yuan, and the peak due redemption in August was 61.37 billion yuan. However, the issuers with larger maturity scale are mainly central enterprises with high credit ratings and local state-owned enterprises, and the overall debt repayment risk in the thermal power industry is controllable.
4. Credit risk outlook for the thermal power industry in the second half of 2022
According to the "National Power Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report for the First Half of 2022" released by the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation , from the demand side, national electricity demand increased year-on-year in the first half of 2022, but due to the disturbance of the epidemic, electricity consumption continued to grow negatively from April to May. Taking into account factors such as the domestic and international epidemic situation, international situation, climate change and the effectiveness of national growth-stabilizing policies and measures in the second half of 2022, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 7% year-on-year in the second half of 2022, and the growth rate of electricity consumption of the whole society will be about 5% to 6%. From the supply side, as of the end of June 2022, the national full-caliber power generation installed capacity was 2.44 billion kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation accounted for about 48.2%. It is expected that driven by the rapid development of new energy, the scale of new installed capacity will hit a record high in 2022. By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation will reach about 2.6 billion kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will reach half for the first time. Overall, the current role of the fire voltage tank is still extremely important. In the future, affected by factors such as the continuous advancement of market-oriented power reform and the goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality", the power supply structure will gradually transform to green and low-carbon. Thermal power units with backward technology and small installation scale will still face shutdown pressure; the degree of squeeze of the thermal power on thermal power is intensified, and the peak-shaving effect of thermal power units will gradually become prominent.
credit bonds, the rapid rise in coal prices in 2021 led to serious overall losses for thermal power companies. In the first half of 2022, benefiting from the increase in on-grid electricity prices, some thermal power companies have turned losses, but coal prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, and the overall operating pressure of the thermal power industry is still very high. The bond issuing enterprises in the thermal power industry are mainly central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises. The overall qualifications of the enterprises are good and the financing channels are smooth. At the same time, the power and thermal businesses are of great significance to the regional economy and residents' lives, so such enterprises can obtain higher intensity of external support. Overall, in the second half of 2022, although the scale of bonds redeemed in the thermal power industry is large, the overall debt repayment risk of the industry is controllable.
[1] Take thermal power companies that still have existing bonds as of the end of June 2022 as the total sample.
[2] Classified according to Wind credit bonds.
[3] According to Wind credit bond classification, thermal power companies with persistent debts as of the end of June 2022.
This article is derived from United Credit
