Zhitong Finance APP learned that Tesla (TSLA.US) loyal fan Troy Teslike recently released an estimated analysis of the company's electric vehicle delivery volume. As shown in the figure below, he expects Tesla to deliver 144,000 vehicles in the third quarter, 187,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, and a total of 510,387 vehicles in 2020.
U.S. delivery volume estimate
data shows that Troy Teslike expects Tesla to deliver 23,113 Model 3s and 8,040 Model S/Xs in the United States, but the delivery data of Model 3 is not necessarily accurate. Troy Teslike believes that it doesn't make sense to just look at the sales of Model 3, because Model 3 and Y are very similar cars, and there must be some market erosion.
According to his survey of Model Y, 10.5% of Model Y buyers come from Model 3. Therefore, you should focus on the sales of Model 3+Y instead of just looking at the sales of Model 3.
In addition, Troy Teslike will increase Model Y delivery to North America from 26,660 to 29,703, as the latest VIN (vehicle identification code) statistics show an increase in production. The following figure shows Troy Teslike's detailed estimate of Model Y output and delivery.
Europe shipments estimation
Troy Teslike calculates that Tesla will ship 39,118 electric vehicles to Europe, an increase from the previous estimate of 33,234, which may be the largest shipment ever. The last time Tesla's largest shipment was 36,391 units.
He estimates that some of the 39,118 vehicles may be used to restore inventory to normal levels. Normally, the inventory was between 4,700 and 6,700 vehicles, but Tesla's inventory dropped to 1,070 vehicles at the end of June, and then fell to zero at the end of July because the factory was shut down.
It is worth noting that due to the long shipping time from the United States to Europe, most delivery of Tesla cars occurs in the last month of the quarter, thus showing uneven distribution of monthly car delivery, as shown in the figure below.
China delivery volume estimates
Troy Teslike estimates Tesla's Chinese factory will deliver 2068 Model S/X and 38651 Model 3. The estimates for Model 3 are based on its combined delivery volume in June, July and August. At the same time, according to data from the China Automotive Technology Research Center, Troy Teslike estimates that the total delivery volume in September will be consistent with June, at 14,976 vehicles.
In addition, some media have reported that Tesla's Shanghai factory may start shipping Model 3 to Japan and Hong Kong in 2021, both of which use right-hand rudder vehicles. Troy Teslike believes that the Shanghai factory may also export electric vehicles to countries such as the UK, Ireland, New Zealand and Australia.
Q4 and 2020 delivery volume estimates
Due to seasonal impact, economic recovery and increased Model Y production at Tesla's Fremont factory, Troy Teslike expects Tesla to deliver a total of 187,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, higher than the delivery volume in the third quarter.
The following chart shows Tesla's annual delivery volumes in each region, including Troy Teslike's estimates for the third and fourth quarter delivery volumes. Troy Teslike believes that delivery volume in the Asia-Pacific region will increase significantly this year due to local production.
However, his estimates for Tesla's delivery in the first and second half of this year are very different. Delivery volume in the Asia-Pacific region in the first half of this year was 62,683, and Troy Teslike's estimate for the second half of the year was 107,212, totaling about 170,000. But he believes that the delivery volume in the first half of next year will be much higher than the same period this year, possibly reaching about 90,000. Excluding Model Y, the delivery volume in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be approximately 197,000 vehicles in 2021.
