From the perspective of Russia's attitude, there are probably only two consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Either Russia wins the victory, or Europe moves towards the nuclear war . Once it reaches the step of using nuclear weapon , there will be no winners, and the United States and Russia will not have any regrets.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has developed to this situation today, and the changes in the situation are indeed unexpected. A summary of the current battlefield in Russia and Ukraine is that the Russian army seized 15% of Ukraine's land area through more than half a year of hard fighting, controlling most of the Donbass and most of the coastline in the southern Ukraine. Russia has not yet achieved the goal of fully demilitarizing and "de-Nazizing" Ukraine and conquering the entire Donbass region. Not only that, the Ukrainian army's recent counterattack also shows that the Ukrainian army's combat power cannot be ignored, and its troops are threatening Luhansk Prefecture from the north. If the Russian army repeats the failure in early September, then Russia's situation in the Ukrainian battlefield will be quite bad. Because of this, Russia has launched a referendum to Russia in the four eastern Ukrainian states, and after completion, it will be able to send more conscripts to this place. At the same time, Russian President Putin announced a partial mobilization across Russia to expand the Russian army on a large scale. Judging from Putin's posture, he wants to bet on all Russia's strength and win with his desperate actions.
There is no doubt that the current situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is very stalemate, and it seems that it is difficult for both Russia and Ukraine to completely defeat each other. Although the Russian army will have more troops after mobilization, none of its inherent problems have been properly resolved. The problems of command and communication, situational awareness, logistics and morale are all serious. We cannot overestimate the improvement of Russian mobilization to the Russian army's combat effectiveness. Although the Ukrainian army can continue to receive military aid and its command and tactics are remarkable, its disadvantages in firepower and scale have always been a fatal problem for the Ukrainian army. Therefore, if we look at the situation on the battlefield alone, it seems that the future direction of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is impossible to judge now. But according to Russia's strategic environment and Putin's own style, we can still draw a conclusion that the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is either Russia's victory or the outbreak of a nuclear war.
If the Russian army can reverse the situation in the future and gradually win, forcing Ukraine to accept Russia's peaceful conditions, it is naturally the best situation for Putin. But if things did not develop in this direction and the battle situation gradually turned to the Ukrainian army, it would be quite worrying what choice Putin would make. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has long transcended the geopolitical significance between Russia and Ukraine and has become a key war for Russia to resist the expansion of Western power. In his latest national televised speech, Putin defined the Russian army's special military operation in Ukraine as a defensive war to defend Russia from being dismembered by the West! Everyone can see Putin's determination to win, and what is hidden under this determination may also include the will to use all weapons to solve problems. Several senior Russian officials recently pointed out that in order to protect Russia's national sovereignty and integrity, Russia will use all weapons, including tactical and strategic nuclear weapons!
Many people think that using nuclear weapons to trigger nuclear war is extremely risky, so Russia does not dare to really use nuclear weapons, but just uses nuclear bombs to scare its opponents. This idea is probably a bit naive. On the one hand, using tactical nuclear weapon does not mean a strategic nuclear weapon and may not necessarily trigger a full-scale nuclear counterattack from the other side. On the other hand, the strength of using tactical nuclear weapons can also be progressive step by step, such as throwing nuclear bombs in unmanned areas such as Black Sea to demonstrate deterrence, or using nuclear bombs to strike Ukraine's brigade-level field military units to show punishment. The most serious one is nuclear strikes cities or heads. Even some American media believe that even if Putin really uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it is highly likely that it will not attract a nuclear response from the US military. Therefore, we must not underestimate Putin's determination to use nuclear weapons. After all, compared to witnessing Russia's strategic failure, Putin may be more willing to use nuclear bombs to change the situation.
In short, the development of the situation in Ukraine has become extremely dangerous today. Under the pressing of Western groups, Russia's desperate counterattack has encountered huge difficulties, which makes the future development of the situation very worrying. At this critical moment, both Russia and the West should act cautiously and never make wrong decisions in recklessness. The West must accept reality. When it comes to the Ukraine issue, Russia will never accept a situation of complete failure. The West must not deceive people too much, otherwise it will definitely bear fruit. Russia should also maintain strategic patience and must not make a decisive decision to escalate the situation in anger. Once nuclear weapons enter the battlefield, no one can predict what consequences it will cause. If the Ukrainian crisis really turns into a catastrophic nuclear war, neither the West nor Russia will regret it.
