On February 24, 2022, Russia sent troops to Ukraine. This is the fourth time Russia has used force abroad since the collapse of of the Soviet Union. The first three times were sending troops to Georgia (2008), Crimea Crisis (2014) and sending troops to Syria (2015), and all occurred during the Putin administration.
frankly said that Russia's first three troops were basically fulfilling its established strategic intentions. However, sending troops to Ukraine seems to have caused Russia "inflicted a lot of trouble."
So the question is, why does Russia "take the blame for the world" and take the initiative to send troops to attack Ukraine? What has Russia "lost" to this dispatch of troops? What changes have taken place in the Western world? I've checked some information and will talk to you briefly.
Putin
1) Regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, several things that need to be known in advance
is different from the previous local wars. In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European and American countries not only provided great military assistance to Ukraine, but also launched a "comprehensive offensive" against Russia in the fields of diplomacy, economy, public opinion, etc.
In other words, this conflict not only became a true portrayal of the "complete breakup" between Russia and European and American countries, but also means the complete failure of its "integration into Europe" concept.
Before discussing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine specifically, I think there are the following issues that need to be briefly discussed with you in advance.
(suspected) Ukrainian military equipment seized by the Russian army
As we all know, Ukraine is a corridor connecting Eurasian continent , and it is also the so-called "a place where military strategists must fight for." It is worth noting that there are differences that are visible to the naked eye in terms of history, culture, national identity, etc. in the eastern and western parts of Ukraine.
- Modern History: At the beginning of the founding of the Soviet Union, the eastern Ukrainian region became one of the Soviet franchises of the Soviet Union, and Western Ukrainian became part of Polish . After the outbreak of in World War II, Western Ukraine was forcibly incorporated into the "Republic of Ukraine" by the Soviet Union.
- Religion and culture: Eastern Ukrainians mainly believe in Orthodoxism, use Russian, and have a closer relationship with Russia; Western Ukrainians mainly believe in Catholicism, use Ukrainian or Polish , have a deeper relationship with Poland, and are more inclined to "break away from Russia and enter Europe".
- Economic structure: Most of Ukraine's industrial cities are located in the east, and industrial energy mainly originates from Russia and has a relatively developed economy; the west is mainly agriculture and tourism, and its interactions with Europe are closer.
In summary, in today's Ukraine, is very similar to a "assembled" "binary country" (extended reading :
"puzzle" Ukraine (Picture via: Earth Knowledge Bureau)
Under such a general background, Ukraine's domestic political forces have always been divided into two factions: "pro-Western" and "pro-Russian" factions. Both sides have been divided into two factions: "pro-Western" and "pro-Russian". The struggle was fierce and even surpassed national interests for a time. In other words, the foreign policy of Ukrainian national leaders largely determines the fate of the country. If it is handled improperly, may even trigger the danger of the country being "divided into two" (Expand reading :
People in the Donbas region have long protested against the pro-NATO Ukrainian government, and are quite welcome to the Russian army
People generally believe that Cold War resulted in "the United States wins, the Soviet Union loses." Therefore, the United States has always firmly believed that Russia, which has inherited the Soviet legacy, needs to bear the bitter fruit of "failure". In Warsaw Pact (i.e. " Warsaw Pact Organization h Against the backdrop of the disintegration of tml4, the United States has not only not weakened NATO's military function, but has also always regarded Russia as the "ultimate enemy" ( extension reading: Yeltsin and Clinton
For the "small countries" of , which generally has weak comprehensive national strength, 's joining NATO is equivalent to obtaining "blessing from a big country." Therefore, they not only strongly hope that they can also become a member of NATO, but also hope that NATO can effectively protect the security of the entire Europe, and some countries even request that the United States station troops in their own countries. summarizes it in one sentence, these "small countries" almost fully support and support "NATO's eastward expansion".
In 1999, NATO completed its first round of major expansion. Among them, Hungary , Hungary , and Poland were "taken under his command" by the former Soviet camp. Despite Russia's strong dissatisfaction, it was of no use at all. In 2002, Russian then-President Putin once made a call for "Russia can also join NATO", but was "cruelly rejected" by the other side.
For a long time, "integration into Europe" has always been one of Russia's ultimate goals
Academic circles generally believe that Putin's speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 meant that Russia was gradually "strangling". In this speech, Putin not only severely criticized the United States' unilateralist policy, but also strongly demanded that NATO "can no longer expand eastward."
However, Putin's ruthless words do not seem to be significant. As of 2021, NATO has carried out five rounds of eastward expansion, pushing the front line eastward by more than 1,000 kilometers, directly to the Russian-Ukrainian border. At the NATO Defense Ministers' Meeting in 2021, they even viewed Russia as a potential "invader" to guard against it.
NATO's "History of East Expansion" (Picture via: Xinmin.com)
This sense of humiliation of being disrespected and trusted has greatly annoyed Russia, as a big country. They believe that the "only NATO's security force structure" formed by Europe is "imbalanced and incorrect".
Therefore, Russia's move to "take Crimea " in 2014 is not just "to remove the military threats that the Black Sea base may face", but rather "a warning of NATO's eastward expansion."
Russians celebrate Crimea's "return"
) Why did Russia choose to "take the initiative"?
frankly said that Russia's choice to take the initiative to attack Ukraine is by no means a "top" decision. The original Because has a direct relationship with the loosening of the US's "first super" status and the transfer of strategic goals.
Based on the actual situation of the country, US President Biden adopted a strategic contraction policy after taking office. For example, in August 2021, the US military's voluntary withdrawal of Afghanistan is a vivid manifestation. At the same time, the United States firmly believes that 's own primary competitor in the future is China. Therefore, they gradually shifted their strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific region.
June 16, 2021, US President Biden (left) and Russian President Pu Beijing held a meeting at Villa Lagranger in Geneva, Switzerland
In the summit between the United States and Russia held in June 2021, Putin received a feedback that "the United States hopes to unite (stabilize) Russia and jointly deal with China." At the same time, the signing of the " New Strategic Weapon Reduction Treaty " made Putin keenly aware of the opportunity to resolve NATO's eastward expansion problem and establish a new European order.
After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, based on the multiple impacts of anti-epidemic and economic assistance, the relationship between Russia and its neighbors has been "improved" to the naked eye. At the beginning of 2022, Russia helped Kazakhstan stabilize the situation; earlier, Russia helps Belarus crush the conspiracy of "color revolution" (Extended reading:
April 1, 2022, Mariupol, Ukraine, residents pass through damaged buildings
2) What may Russia "lose"?
In general, the challenges that Russia needs to face, I personally think include at least the following points:
It is undeniable that because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia's comprehensive national strength has been weakened to a certain extent.
is first and foremost at the economic level. Although Russia has built a so-called "fortress strategy" to deal with Western economic sanctions after the Crimea incident.However, the intensity and coverage of this time sanctions against against Russia are "eyhounding". Therefore, some scholars believe that the "2030 Development Goals" set by Russia is almost impossible to achieve.
On March 30, 2022, a woman waited for evacuation through humanitarian corridors in the Zaporoze area of Ukraine
followed by the political level. The essence of Russian politics, the so-called "elite politics". Simply put, "If the elite class is stable, Russia will be stable." It should be pointed out that the impact of economic sanctions on the interests of the elite class is much greater than that of the civilian class. Then the question is, whether the Russian elite can continue to continue its "loyalty" to Putin as usual remains to be further observed.
is again at the military level. As we all know, behind Ukraine is strongly supported by European and American countries. Therefore, it is also questionable whether Russia can withstand a protracted war.
From the economic data, Russia is at a clear disadvantage. The economic strength of the United States and its allies accounts for about 50% of the world's total economy; in contrast, Russia, the total amount of GDP in the country is only US$1.77 trillion (2021), accounting for less than 2% of the world economy. In summary, the longer the war lasts, the greater the possibility that Russia will fall into a passive position.
However, according to the analysis data of the Economist, the Russian economy seems to show signs of recovery
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, 25 million Russians became "ethnic minorities" in other countries ( expansion reading:
Putin and Lukashenko
European and American countries are extremely afraid of the concept of "Russian world" proposed by the Russians. In other words, as long as Russia does not give up on the idea of "incorporating CIS countries into the sphere of influence", Europe and the United States are extremely afraid of the concept of "incorporating CIS countries into their sphere of influence". The country will never lift its defense against Russia ( expansion reading:
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko believes that the United States intends to build NATO into a "global military police"
There is another thing to note. Due to its weak economic development potential, Russia is actually difficult to become an "economic magnetic field" that gathers CIS countries. In other words, 's economic cooperation with European and American countries is much higher than Russia. Perhaps, this is also the fundamental reason why some CIS countries take the initiative to "de-Russia" ( expansion reading :
Ukrainian President Zelensky
" Washington Post " wrote an article pointing out that "Ukrainian President Zelensky has made good publicity on the Internet platform through various social media and communication tools." At the same time, he also spoke online with leaders and parliaments of major Western countries in the form of online meetings, elaborating on his political propositions and seeking material and moral help.
frankly said that although Ukraine's "information war" has repeatedly failed, it still plays a role in accelerating morale and winning the support of "neutral states". As for Zelensky, he is regarded by many pro-Ukrainians as a "hero" who "dare to resist the powerful invaders."
in micro There are also many "dead fans" of Zelensky on the Bo platform.
is different from Zelensky. Putin usually sits in the office and speaks to the recorder , which looks solemn and serious. The content of his speech is either the national history or his own world view and historical view, with a strong "academic atmosphere". But it is undeniable that seems to be "better" in terms of data playback, coverage and influence.
At the same time, Russia's foreign mouthpiece RT (Russian News Agency) in the public opinion war was also "completely banned" by major information flow platforms in the United States. In other words, the main information seen by neutral audiences are almost all information released by European and American countries and Ukraine. It can be seen from this that Russia's overseas voice has been further deprived.
Last September, Russia issued an ultimatum: If the restrictions on RT two channels are not lifted, YouTube may face a comprehensive ban in Russia
3) "Great Changes" in the Western world
Because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has become one of the "most vicious enemies" in the eyes of European and American countries. Some scholars believe that it is expected that in the next decade, European and American countries will not only further strengthen cooperation, but Europe will even fall into the shadow of a new Cold War. In general, the following changes may occur in the Western world:
First of all, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European and American countries showed strong political cohesion. is far beyond Russia in terms of its mobilization power for its own people or its impact on other bystanders. At the same time, the hard and soft power of European and American countries has also been fully demonstrated.
Secondly, European countries have changed their past passive situation in the field of military security and actively increased defense spending in order to "defend" NATO's eastern border. German federal government spokesman Herb Stett said the federal government is expected to achieve the goal of NATO member countries' defense spending accounts for 2% of GDP this year.
Objectively speaking, such a large increase in military expenditures indicates the determination of European countries to become "in-depth participants in military security strategies on the world stage."
German Bundestag held a special meeting
Again, The Russian-Ukrainian conflict may further accelerate the process of EU integration. As we all know, EU integration has extended to member states in many areas such as politics, military, security and diplomatic affairs. In order to deal with the "common enemy" Russia, exchanges between members will only become closer.
fourth, The United States and Europe will reach deeper cooperation. Although there is debate between the United States and the EU on energy sanctions against Russia, it is "almost consistent" on substantive issues such as European security. Therefore, some experts predict that in order to achieve common goals, NATO is very likely to become an "expanding and offensive international military group."
Russia's confrontation with NATO may last for a long time
Some military experts pointed out that NATO will "expand functions" and be committed to building a unified framework for European politics, security and military, becoming the bond of Europe's reunification, "will be historicly integrated", Europe will definitely strengthen militarization in the future.
At the same time, Germany and France will no longer have differences with the United States on the issue of NATO's eastward expansion. Because of the existence of Russia, the "common enemy", will make NATO dominated by the United States more united, and the security relationship with the ideology and color stronger.
Februkola, Lithuania, German Wehrmacht armored vehicles arrived at the local
) Europe has become the world's pole, and the United States has reaped benefits
First of all, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made Germany give up the idea of relying on the United States in security, and invested 100 billion euros in the arms budget. This means that the former world military major powers will "make a comeback". The rapid rise of German military has had an unpredictable profound impact on the entire world.
Secondly, Germany and France are rapidly becoming consistent in politics and security. will jointly shape the future of Europe and have a significant impact on the world pattern and geopolitics.
Again, Europe, based on Germany and France, will be the most reliable ally of the United States to realize its global strategic interests . With Germany's military rise, more and more people will believe that "only the United States can effectively restrain Germany." Under such a cognitive context, the leadership of the United States will be more stable. In other words, if has to "find a winner" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it must be the United States,
US President Biden
) NATO will "involve" in the Asia-Pacific region
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict made the United States realize that its Indo-Pacific strategy cannot leave military organizations. If there is no military organization, leadership will inevitably be damaged. To achieve this goal, the United States' "urgent" is to comprehensively curb China from the economic and military fields: in the economic field, the United States mainly cooperates with neighboring countries based on the Indo-Pacific economic framework it has built; in the military field, it has achieved the goal of "containing China" by building the "Asian NATO mechanism" of the trilateral security partnership between the United States, Britain and Australia.
Under the "leading" of the United States, European countries will also spare no effort to promote the EU version of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy". If we say that before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU's Indo-Pacific strategy focused on the right to formulate rules in the economic field. Then after the conflict breaks out, the EU will strengthen cooperation with the United States in the field of political security. Together to create the "Indo-Pacific Rules" against China, aiming to weaken China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
May 24, 2022, Tokyo, Japan, Japan, India and Australia's "Quadian Mechanism" Summit was held on the same day
4) Changes in the international landscape
As we all know, "peace and development" has always been the theme of the times in the 21st century. However, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, this theme faces more severe challenges. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov even issued a warning of "Beware of the outbreak of three wars" and "Three wars are nuclear wars."
American scholars believe that countries around the world will be divided into three forces:
- Western forces: (US) can easily unite them and launch "actions" against "competitors" together;
- Checks and balances forces: In the process of contact with major powers such as the United States, these countries maintain independence and try their best to reduce the possibility of becoming a competitive struggle field for major powers;
- can win power: the "target country" that European and American countries can strive for.
In short, the US diplomatic strategy is "further consolidate and enhance the comprehensive strength and international influence of its own forces, further win over the forces that can be won over, and further curb the development of checks and balances."
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
Expand on the topic, over time, the following changes in the United States' diplomatic strategy may occur:
- relies more on the construction of North American Free Trade Zone , and ultimately realize the trinity of "US-Canada-Mexico ".
- pays more attention to the transatlantic alliance and supports the construction of a transatlantic energy consortium to exclude Russian energy;
- attaches importance to the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and consolidates a strong diplomatic framework with India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other countries to cope with China's impact on the Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific region.
- Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, "weak Russia and contain China" is likely to become the long-term strategy of the United States. For China, while firmly safeguarding national interests, it is also necessary to maintain strategic determination on major issues and must not lose its footing. What we want to say is that conflict and confrontation are not in the fundamental interests of any country. In other words, "peace and development" is still the most recognized and broad consensus among the international community.
March 1, in the business hall of a local bank in Moscow, customers were waiting for business (photo via China News Service)
5) ending
No matter what, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will inevitably restrain part of the attention of European and American countries. For us, while ensuring both internal and external considerations in foreign policy, we also need to make good use of the relative strategic opportunity period.
However, the "US Indo-Pacific Strategy" released by the US government in February 2022 has a wider scope than the "Indo-Pacific Strategy Report" released in 2019, covering many fields such as military, diplomacy, economy, science and technology, environment, and ideology. It is a comprehensive regional strategic document for China. It can be seen from this that the United States’ goal of regarding China as its “number one strategic competitor” has not changed.
In September 2021, the offline leaders' summit of the United States, Japan, India and Australia "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" was held in Washington
It can be speculated that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not only not change the United States' containment measures against China, but also because it unites allies through the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States may work with many allies to suppress China "with greater efforts". Therefore, we must make more comprehensive response plans in advance.
