This photo was taken in late May and it brought people a rare joy under the gloom of the NBA suspension. James Harden strolled down a sand dune and looked a little disheveled, like a prophet walking down from the top of a mountain with a crooked hair and a famous bearded man. Harden looked panting and sweating, and, wow, the lines were clear! Very eye-catching.
"A low-body fat Harden can make the Rockets a favorite to win the championship." RocketsWire's Ben DuBose quoted Kendrick Perkins, a former NBA champion and current ESPN analyst.
"We are discussing one of the most abundant scorers in basketball history (scoring methods)," Perkins said on ESPN's The Jump program. "Now he loses weight, and he will focus on the game? That's very threatening. If this season can be restored, it will help the Rockets continue to improve and become a favorite to win the championship."
Finally, this season is about to restart. According to the schedule, the Rockets will play against the Mavericks on July 31, US time. They will play 8 seed qualifying games in the rematch quarantine in Orlando, the first of which. Before the suspension in March, the Rockets had a record of 40 wins and 24 losses, temporarily tied for sixth in the West and had a chance to enter the top four.
As for the championship? The road is very difficult, just as hard as Harden’s training location during the pandemic.
It is obvious that the favorites to win the championship are in Los Angeles: the Lakers led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and the Clippers led by Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Before the suspension, the Rockets, like the Jazz, Nuggets and Thunder, were competing for a place in the crowded second-tier team in the Western Conference.
The Rockets' hope for winning the championship is as always, as they have Harden, the amazing scoring machine that is about to earn his third consecutive "scoring king" title - and his latest All-Star partner Russell Westbrook, who is about to make his Rockets' debut in his playoff career. With the NBA reopening, Harden's recent physique will be more than just a curious thing.
Every failure of the Rockets has triggered people's questions about their privileged star: Is he exhausted? Is he tired? Can he lead the team to 82 regular season games and subsequent playoffs? Perhaps, a Harden with clearer lines will be a more resilient Harden, a more agile and dynamic Harden. Or maybe, the four-month suspension will make Harden more energetic in the playoffs.
However, what the Rockets should be worried about is not the physical load on Harden, what they should be worried about is the burden on him on the court.
Even with Westbrook, a recognized scoring master, Harden still shoulders the burden of offensive end. Harden's usage rate this season (referring to the number of times a player participates in the team's rounds while on the court) is as high as 36.4%, the second highest in his career and may become the tenth highest in NBA history.
History tells us that this is not a healthy or successful way to compete for the championship.
Only one player reached the finals of the season with a regular season usage rate of 35 or above, that is Allen Iverson. In the 2000-01 season, Iverson, who played for the 76ers, used a rate of 35.9. He then led the team to the finals but eventually lost to the Lakers.
Before this season, 23 players (provided that playing time meets the requirements) had a usage rate of more than 35. Among them, 8 players failed to make the playoffs, 8 players stopped in the first round of the playoffs, and 5 players stopped in the second round of the playoffs. After Iverson, only two of the players who control a large number of balls reached the division finals, namely Harden in 2018 and George Gervin in 1982.
"Relying on one player to complete most offenses is not ideal," a team executive said sarcastically. "This is definitely a flaw in the process of building the team. But it precisely (highlights) how challenging it is to find a second boss (to supplement the boss)."
Usage is just a measure of the burden on the offensive end, and it is not a perfect indicator. The formula counts the number of shots, free throws and turnovers, so for low-turnover players who make more moves but have few passes, they are less used than Harden's core guards who take everything.
Still, a higher usage can tell us something about a player and his team. Almost all the extremely high usage occurs in the top players, such as Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade, as well as former All-Stars such as Jerry Starkhouse and DeMarcus Cousins. Many of them are tied to a lineup that lacks scoring choices.
Is it voluntary or forced to take on an NBA star's offensive choice? This is a question of "chicken or egg first". In addition, we have reason to think about the question: high usage rate and low success rate in the playoffs, are the two causal or mutual influence?
However, considering these more than 20 examples over the past 40 years, it is difficult not to conclude that excessive reliance on a star will have a negative impact on the team's performance in the playoffs.
"As a historic question, this is beyond doubt. "Seth Paterno, who was the head of the Bucks' basketball analysis department and is currently an analyst at The Athletic.
As Paterno pointed out in a December report, teams of this era are increasingly relying on an all-round superstar to control the overall offense, a star who is both a major ball-holder, organizer, and scorer. Paterno used one word to describe this situation: heliocentric theory.
Think about Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks, Luca Doncic of the Mavericks, Trae Young of the Hawks, LeBron James of the entire career, Harden of the Rockets, and Westbrook who had played for the Thunder. (It's interesting that James' usage has never exceeded 35.)
If the season ends today, Antetokounmpo's usage rate will be seventh in history, and Doncic (37.0) will be eighth in history, leading Harden two places.
Their teams have this method to win many games. But the playoffs are different from the regular season.
(in the playoffs) opponents have time to inspect and prepare. They can tailor-made defensive plans for a team or a star and adjust as the series begins. In January, few teams will change their defensive strategies in the game against Harden or Antetokounmpo. But in spring (this year should be summer), they will spend a lot of time studying countermeasures.
“In the playoffs, the team will do a lot of inspections and make a lot of preparations for what they may encounter,” said an experienced scout. “So, if you have a very high-use player on your team, a player who controls the ball, the coaches will make a game plan around that player. You can always find a way to get James Harden out of the ball and then let Ben McLemore, Austin Rivers or someone else handle the ball. ”
An assistant coach from a regular playoff team said that because the Rockets focus on three-point shooting and Harden's uniqueness, it is difficult for opponents to prepare for these two points during the regular season.
"Everyone is not used to their style," the assistant coach said. "The Rockets' performance is almost perfect in terms of three-point shooting and other things they want to do. Their players know their roles, and if they meet them in the regular season, it will be a very difficult game... In the playoff series, everyone will start looking for some defensive strategies to defend against James (Harden) and their other stars and other role players.”
This may mean that the opponent will use different defensive strategies to deal with Harden in each round: single defense, double-team defense, smaller defenders, larger defenders and assist in defense from different angles.
“In the process of putting pressure on Harden, you must take comprehensive measures, combining some full-game pressure and some pitfalls,” the assistant coach said. “If you can force him to speed up, if you can find a way to consume his energy on the defensive end, then (your tactics) will work. ”
Patrno added: “If there are always players who can stay energetic and put 105% of their energy to deal with a player who needs to do this and that (Harden) – of course, I don’t know if I can verify this, but this solution does make sense. In this way, the opponent can find a chance to defeat him in one or seven games. ”
Apart from Harden, the Rockets only have one player that can scare the opponent, that is Westbrook. Westbrook's ball possession and explosiveness make him a persistent threat, but his poor three-point shooting percentage has given the opponent greater tolerance, allowing the opponent to tilt the defense towards Harden, which blocked Harden's shooting space and offensive route, forcing Harden to make a more difficult move.
The scout mentioned the pair of Harden and Westbrook, responding to the problem that has been around since the Rockets traded to Westbrook in July last year, saying: "I think this is a flawed pattern." "
The Rockets' Gemini stars have been elected as MVPs. They may be the players with the most control and usage rate in NBA history. It seems that we still don't know whether the two of them can really complement each other, nor do they know whether they can be better than the previous combination of Harden and Paul, or even the combination of Harden and Dwight Howard who reached the Western Conference Finals in 2015. The Rockets have been in the Harden era for 8 years, and they are still looking for the right model and the right team partners to help them win the championship.
The Rockets have always been close to winning the championship. They entered the Western Conference Finals twice in five years, but were both defeated by the Warriors, including the epic seven games in 2018. Paul's injury was one of the reasons why they lost that round of the series. If the Rockets could make a breakthrough at that time, it might have dispelled people's doubts about whether only one star who controls the ball can win the game.
In the past four years of playoffs, Harden's effective shooting percentage has declined, an average drop of 4.4 percentage points compared to his regular season's effective shooting percentage. Of course, the competitive level in the playoffs will be higher, and generally speaking, the quality of defense will generally improve, so the decline in efficiency is expected, even the best stars.
But a series of noteworthy losses have set Harden's playoff history.
In 2015, Harden made 2 of 11 shots in the last game of the season lost to the Warriors and made 12 turnovers.
In 2016, the Rockets temporarily lagged the Warriors 1-2 in the big score, and the key fourth game was played at the Rockets' home court. In this game, Harden scored only 18 points on 4 of 13 shots, and the team also lost the game. In the next fifth game, Harden rebounded and scored 35 points in the game. But in the last game of the season, Harden made 7 turnovers.
In 2017, in the sixth game of the Western Conference Semi-Finals, Harden scored 10 points on 2 of 11 shots and made 6 turnovers, and the Rockets were eliminated by the Spurs.
The Rockets' best performance came in 2018, when they dragged the Warriors into a tiebreak in the Western Conference Finals. In the end, the game ended with the Rockets' worst collapse - the Rockets' team missed 27 consecutive shots outside the three-point line, including Harden's 10 irons. In this game, Harden made 12 of 29 shots and only 2 of 13 three-pointers.
In 2019, the Warriors eliminated the Rockets in the second round again. But Harden played a wonderful performance in those six games, averaging 34.8 points per game and an effective shooting percentage of 53.4%.
Analysis of the playoff performance of an All-Star player is essentially a worrying thing - what affects the star himself, his teammates, his opponents, and even random factors. Is it fatigue to drag Harden's hind legs every spring? Is it a flaw in the lineup? Is it the doom of the same era as the Warriors led by Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant?
Does the excessive dependence on a single star limit the Rockets' chances of fighting against top teams? Is predictability the Rockets’ biggest obstacle? Paterno said that maybe that's the case, citing a baseball metaphor to illustrate the issue.
"The less you need to prepare, the more you are ready," Patno said. "If you only have one shot in an inning - basically a player like Mariano Rivera, okay? Then this goal is devastating. If the New York Yankees try to get Rivera as the team's starting lineup, what would this third move look like? This metaphor is not for the third quarter, it refers more to the third game of the series."
Will Westbrook's existence bring about a change? This remains to be seen. When the NBA was suspended on March 11, US time, the pair of Harden and Westbrook were still in progress, and they played exciting highlights (swept 121-111 against the Lakers on February 7, US time), and also encountered shocking troughs (in March, they suffered four consecutive losses against teams such as the Knicks, Hornets and Magic).
Every game in the Rockets' rematch is like a referendum. These referendums may be about Harden, maybe about the pair of Harden and Westbrook, maybe about the (data) analytical guidance offense, maybe about their small ball style and lack of a center lineup, maybe even about their leadership skills.
Team coach Mike D'Anthony is in his last season of his contract. It is not clear what impact the Rockets' future will have on everyone's Rockets.
In addition, the Rockets rely on one of the oldest rotations in the league, and their two stars are also in the late stages of their respective peak periods. On August 26, US time, Harden will celebrate his 31st birthday, and the first round of the playoffs will be over; Westbrook will be 32 years old by November.
The situation in the Western Conference next season will only become more difficult. The Lakers and Clippers still exist, the Warriors will fully recover, and the Pelicans and Mavericks are also rising.
There is a sense of high urgency everywhere. In the eyes of that senior senior scout, the Rockets either grasp the present or will never succeed:
"This is their last dance."
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