Huitong.com May 21st - On Thursday (May 21st), the euro rebounded at a low level against the US dollar, and now trading at the 1.1120 line. When we were discussing where the euro and the dollar would fall to, we said that 1.1068 would be the first target below, and we may get some support here. Yesterday, the euro rebounded as scheduled after falling to 1.1060. As for the day, investors still need to prepare for the longs’ last try, and the shorts can temporarily settle and wait and see.
Fed officials believe the timing of a rate hike in June may be immature, although most officials feel the U.S. economy will rebound from a sluggish start to this year, according to minutes of April policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. After the minutes of the meeting were released, the US dollar was under slight pressure.
At present, for the euro, one good news is that there is no more negative news in the situation in Greece. Greece's central bank will request an increase of 1.1 billion euros at a meeting of the European Central Bank's governing committee on Wednesday (May 20). Some decision makers hope that Greece will receive a new amount of less than the above figure or no ELA will be added, people familiar with the matter said. Since the meeting has not been made public, the above-mentioned person requested not to be named. What needs to be paid attention to on the manufacturing PMI data of the eurozone and its multiple member states within 0 days. In addition, the European Central Bank Central Bank Business Forum will be held. Several important figures will make speeches at this forum, including European Central Bank President Draghi, Bank of England Governor Carney, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher, and Harvard Professor Sanmers. The forum will last until Saturday and will cover all aspects of the economy. Draghi would have revealed important monetary policy signals in his speeches in the past. If this is the European version of the Fed Jackson Hall meeting, we can hope to hear him or others reveal some important signals.
Technically, the euro's decline yesterday expanded again as expected, and also touched the first target we mentioned 1.1068. The rebound in exchange rates has been basically expected since then. (Related news links of Huitong.com: The euro's decline has expanded as scheduled, where should we pay attention to the downward target?)
As for the day, bears should no longer blindly enter the market. Instead, wait for the correction to end before entering the market and shorting. Considering that the Federal Reserve minutes have basically completely wiped out the possibility of a rate hike in June from the end of the night, there may still be a certain need for short covers against the US dollar during the day. The key pressure on the upward trend is around 1.1257. The copyright of the content of
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