Business Insider reported on the 18th that according to a report released by the Demand Institute (a think tank of the Economic Advisory Council and the Nielsen Group), if the Chinese government has a way to avoid disasters through policy tools, the average local GDP growth rate is estimated to be 4.5% between 2015 and 2020 and further drop to 3.6% from 2020 to 2025. The report pointed out that many analysts expect China to land softly, and the problem is that there is no landing point at all at present; China's productivity crisis is still in a state of unsolvable state, which means that the decline in local economic growth rate will be more serious than analysts expect.
The Financial Times reported on the 16th that the Demand Institute pointed out that most Chinese citizens are still quite far from the middle class, and the local economic growth rate is estimated to be only 3.7% this year and next year. The report notes that for most multinational companies, there are only about 40 cities that really provide real business opportunities. Louise Keely, president of
Demand Institute, pointed out that "multinational enterprises must go deep into every corner of China to be competitive" and "China's future is in third- and fourth-level cities."
Bloomberg reported on the 16th that according to the annual survey conducted by PwC for attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Business Leaders' Summit (note: more than 800 people attended), only 28% firmly believe that their company's revenue will grow in the next year, with a record low, far lower than last year's 46%. Surveys show that doubts about China's economic growth slowdown and the turmoil in China's stock market this summer have impacted the confidence of companies in the Asia-Pacific region.
was named by Bloomberg as one of the three major forecast analysts of China's economy by Societe Generale.com. He pointed out through an official press release that China's economic growth rate will continue to decline in the next five years and will eventually bottom out at around 5%.
The Wall Street Journal reported that if Lombard Street Research’s forecast (China’s actual growth rate is at least 3 percentage points shorter than the official estimate of 7%) is fulfilled, China’s hard landing will lead to a sharp drop in global growth rate (note: IMF estimates 3.5% this year) by 1.5 percentage points.
The Financial Times reported that Lawrence Summers, the Secretary of Finance during the Clinton administration, released an academic report in October 2014, pointing out that China is the only country in history that can maintain rapid growth for more than 32 years, but such a prosperity will come to an end sooner or later, when China's economic growth may suddenly return to the average (2%).
(This article is reproduced by authorized by MoneyDJ News; first image source: Flickr/Yuya SekiguchiCC BY 2.0)
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