text | Jinwei
"Bi Wang" fell from the trillion altar, and today it fell below 900 billion.
htmlOn June 12, BYD continued to fall in the opening, falling 7% during the session. As of the midday closing, BYD fell 7.3% to 300.6 yuan, with a total market value of 875.1 billion. Judging from the stock price trend, BYD closed three large negative lines in a row, with the largest drop of 15% in three days, and a total of more than 140 billion evaporated.
Today, BYD won double-winning A shares and Hong Kong stock , and BYD Hong Kong stocks fell by more than 12%. BYD's Hong Kong stock market plummeted, mainly due to settlement data that triggered speculation that Berkshire has been reduced.
Hong Kong Stock Exchange CCASS data shows that on July 9, Citibank held BYD shares .163 billion shares. On July 11, Citibank 's holdings increased by 225 million shares to 389 million shares, accounting for 35.39%.
On September 29, 2008, Buffett took over Berkshire. Hathaway Energy Company spent US$230 million (about HK$1.8 billion) to subscribe to 225 million shares of BYD on the Hong Kong stock market at a price of HK$8 per share. The market has speculated that the 225 million shares increased by Citibank's holdings should be from Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.
However, in response to the rumors, a reporter called BYD as an investor. The company's securities affairs department responded, "The data we are seeing now is that Buffett's holdings have not changed at present. Its shareholding ratio is very large. If it involves changes in shares, it will definitely be disclosed."
However, some industry insiders also analyzed that there is still such possibility: First, the current share reduction process has not been completed, so the company has not seen the relevant data yet; second, Buffett lends hedge fund short selling.
On June 10 this year, BYD's market value exceeded one trillion yuan, becoming the world's third largest market value company. This is also the first independent automobile brand company in A-shares to join the trillion-yuan market value club.
For BYD, the first driving force for pushing it to a trillion-dollar market value is new energy vehicles.
Since the beginning of this year, new energy vehicle sales have been booming, and BYD has been even ahead of the crowd. In June this year, BYD's sales were 134,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 162.7%, and for the fourth consecutive month this year, the monthly sales exceeded 100,000 units. In the first six months, BYD's cumulative sales were 641,400 vehicles, and the cumulative delivery of Tesla was 564,000 vehicles. BYD's sales exceeded Tesla's nearly 80,000 vehicles.
At the same time, the policy end of new energy vehicles is constantly making efforts. Due to the impact of the epidemic on the economy in the second quarter, the central and local governments have introduced incentive policies for automobile consumption, including 60 billion purchase tax, car going to the countryside , local consumption subsidies, etc. Various promotion policies have heated up the speculation of new energy vehicles, and BYD has also become the biggest beneficiary of this round of market speculation.
At present, BYD has a complex business, not only new energy vehicles. BYD also has a place in the fields of semiconductors and consumer electronics.
From the financial statements, the automobile business is BYD's first source of revenue, with revenue accounting for more than 50% in 2021. Mobile phone assembly business and battery business account for 40% and 7.6% respectively.
htmlOn June 13, CITIC Securities released a research report titled "A new starting point for trillions, high-end, global, and intelligent opening up growth space", watching BYD.CITIC Securities analyzed that BYD's total market value exceeded one trillion yuan. Considering the company's future battery and semiconductor electrification supply chain value, the segment valuation method is adopted, and referring to the average valuation of comparable companies, BYD's car manufacturing, power batteries, and holding BYD Electronics + Semiconductor are given 9500, 3300, and 100 billion yuan in 2023. It is expected that the overall valuation space is expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan, corresponding to the target price of A/H shares of 481.1 yuan/562.6 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining BYD (A+H shares) "buy" rating and continuing to recommend it.
This time, BYD maintained its trillion throne for less than 10 days, and fell from the altar and slapped CITIC Securities in the face again.
In fact, BYD has made a significant adjustment. In addition to speculation on reducing holdings, coupled with the previous new energy sector, , has seen a large increase, and hype has shown signs of a decline.
BYD new energy vehicles are selling well, but their profitability has not improved significantly.In terms of gross profit margin, the BYD Auto sector fell from 25.2% in 2020 to 17.39% in 2021, and the gross profit margin of the automobile business in the first quarter of 2022 was about 15.6%.
In contrast, Tesla's gross profit margin of automobile business reached 32.9% in the first quarter of this year, and the gross profit margin of new car-making forces such as NIO and Ideal was also around 20%.
Look at the first quarter data. BYD Auto's cumulative sales volume reached 286,000 vehicles, and its net profit was "only" 808 million, which was equivalent to the profit of bicycles, which is equivalent to 2,825 yuan per car. Of course, the net profit of 800 million yuan also includes business such as mobile phones, which will be less substantial. According to the estimates of West China Securities , BYD's net profit is only 2,400 yuan, while CITIC Securities' data is even lower, only 1,356 yuan.
In comparison, Tesla delivered 310,000 vehicles in the first quarter, with a net profit of up to US$3.318 billion, equivalent to a bicycle profit of US$10,700. According to the average exchange rate of 6.5, , which is equivalent to 69,600 yuan per car.
In terms of BYD shareholder group, investors have a big difference in their views on BYD. Some investors say that they should cherish BYD with the word "2" and that new energy sales in the future are expected, and some investors say that they are knocked out! The stock price has fallen continuously, and the main force is shipping. Some investors also said that BYD has dragged down the entire automobile sector on its own recently, which is amazing.
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