Anthony Blinken is the new secretary of state of the United States Source: US media
Author Xiao Hengzhong Researcher at the Center for Taiwan and East Asian Studies at Central China Normal University, Ph.D., Peking University and Chinese University of Culture
U.S. federal Senate On January 26, with an overwhelming vote of 78 votes in favor and 22 votes against, passed the personnel appointment confirmation case of the new president Biden Nominated by senior diplomat Antony Blinken as Secretary of State, becoming the fourth confirmed Biden cabinet member. Prior to this, the Senate had confirmed the personnel appointments of National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, Defense Secretary Austin , and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
After Biden won the US presidential election, mainland China adopted rational risk aversion actions, including cold handling of US-Taiwan relations Trump The government's possible provocative behavior towards mainland China during the remaining term of office. But as Secretary of State in charge of US foreign affairs, Blinken had previously promised at the hearing to ensure that Taiwan has the ability to defend itself, and said that if mainland China uses force against Taiwan, it would be a "serious mistake." As the saying goes, "The new official takes office for three fires" has attracted our attention to Blinken's major-country diplomatic thinking, its perception of US-China relations, and its position and attitude towards friendly Taiwan.
1. Blinken's big-country diplomatic thinking
Blinken and Biden have been in love for nearly 20 years. The two even worked closely together in the Senate for six years, and their work cooperation naturally extends personal friendship. When Biden decided to move towards White House for the third time in 2020, Blinken resolutely resigned from the geopolitical and policy consulting company he founded and joined Biden's campaign as a senior foreign policy adviser. Blinken can be said to be the person Biden trusts most in diplomatic affairs, which also means that he may become a secretary of state who has a great impact on the president's decision. At the same time, the director of national intelligence, Haynes, who was previously confirmed by the Senate, and Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, are also Blinken's long-time friends.
First, from Blinken's personal experience and the origins of his entire family with Europe, Blinken firmly upholds the traditional concept of "US-European Alliance" in diplomacy, emphasizing strengthening relations with Europe and commitment to NATO. Whether it is to deal with issues such as terrorism, climate change, epidemic, trade, nuclear proliferation or China's rise, Blinken's solution always revolves around one core, that is, cooperation with European allies is necessary.
Second, in terms of Blinken's experience and vision of internationalization, it also made Blinken a multilateralist, emphasizing the solution of various problems through international agreements and multilateral organizations. Therefore, in his perception, the United States' participation and leadership in multilateral organizations is crucial, which is consistent with President Biden's view. It can be seen that in the future, the United States will not only actively return to international organizations' multilateral consultation and global governance, but also actively gain a voice and leadership position.
Third, Blinken believes that diplomacy needs "a supplement to deterrence". For example, in 2003, Biden, who was the senator at the time, voted in favor of the Iraq War with the assistance of Blinken; during the Obama administration, Blinken also advocated that the United States needs to be more active in the Syrian conflict, regardless of the disagreement with Biden, and supported armed intervention in Libya.
Fourth, Blinken's diplomatic philosophy has a certain degree of "middle way" thinking. He is also cautious about the US military's military's military participation overseas. For example, he criticized the US military for intervening too deeply in Iraq and believed that the United States should not repeat the mistake of "doing too much", but at the same time, Blinken also advocated avoiding the opposite mistake of "doing too little", so Blinken once said that "force can be a necessary assistance to effective diplomacy." As for what "effective diplomacy" is to avoid "doing too much" and "doing too little".
2. Blinken's U.S.-China Relations cognition
Blinken has been in the political circle of Washington for decades, and has gone through three governments of Clinton , Bush Jr. and Obama . His work footprints are spread across the State Department, the White House and Congress. He is a "person in the circle" in Washington with a deep foundation. This gives him rich experience and deep connections in the bureaucratic political system, and also gives him the title of "non-ideological consensus creator", which helps Blinken deal with political disputes and international disputes, and balances White House policies and Congress opinions under the general consensus of the United States "anti-China".
First of all, Blinken's perception of Sino-US relations is "the same as Trump in principle." Blinken has repeatedly stated that mainland China poses the "bigest challenge" to the United States, and said at the nomination confirmation hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that he believes that the tough stance taken by former President Trump on mainland China is correct.
Secondly, Blinken also stated that he only agrees with Trump's "basic principles" of Chinese policy on mainland China, but the "road is different". Blinken does not agree with the specific route Trump has taken to "anti-China". In Blinken's view, the best way to deal with the challenge of China's rise should be to enhance the United States' own strength and stand up for American values, including strengthening relations with allies to jointly put pressure on mainland China and enhancing its leadership in international institutions.
Furthermore, in addition to competing with each other, Blinken has repeatedly stated that the need for the United States and China to cooperate on global issues such as climate change, weapon control, and epidemics has brought Sino-US relations back to the "competition and cooperation" relationship that is both competitive and cooperative. Therefore, Blinken believes that "complete decoupling" between China and the United States is a "mistake", and said that this is "unrealistic" and will eventually backfire; however, he also emphasized that the prerequisite for Sino-US cooperation is that the United States must be able to "stand with China from a strong position."
3. Blinken's friendly position and attitude
On the one hand, Blinken was on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee a few days ago At the hearing, he was asked about Taiwan's future and the actions of mainland China to Taiwan. Blinken said that the United States has a long-term and non-partisan commitment to Taiwan, that is, the "Taiwan Relations Act". He also said that among those commitments, part of it is to ensure that Taiwan has the ability to defend itself from attacks, so this is the next commitment that will definitely continue in the Biden administration. The United States will ensure that Taiwan has the ability to defend against military threats from mainland China. If mainland China decides to use force against Taiwan, it will be a "serious mistake".
On the other hand, Blinken also hopes that Taiwan will play a more important role in the world, including "more contact in the world", and that Taiwan should be allowed to "not require the country to be a membership" country. At the same time, Taiwan should have “other other ways to participate” in other international organizations that “requiring state as membership”.
It can be seen that at the appointment hearing of the Federal Senate, Blinken made a clear statement about the Biden administration and his friendly attitude towards Taiwan. Although “anti-China” is still a general consensus between the US Congress and the two parties, and although the Democratic National Congress deleted the narrative of “one China policy” before the US election, the Biden administration will still return to the Democratic traditional “one China policy” in the future, and the issue of “sovereignty” on Taiwan has returned to “strategic ambiguity”, but the difference is that on the issue of Taiwan’s security, it continues to move towards “strategic clarity”.
