US stock released in September after the opening of the market, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was still below 50 and was in the contraction range, but both the service industry PMI were higher than expected. Good news of the economy became bad news in the stock market, and Fed continued to violently hike rate added another bargaining chip. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new low in the past two years, with U.S. oil falling more than 7% in a week, and the energy sector, which hit a sharp drop in crude oil, led the decline. I think the main reason for the decline of US stocks is that people are distracted. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, the market not only did not rebound, but instead experienced a big plunge. The global financial market continued to fall on Thursday and Friday, which made the market's pessimism burst!
Even if there are some "no pain" good news in the near future, it will still be considered as a risk of decline. Under such market sentiment, we must also consider another large interest rate hike in November and December. It is understandable that institutional funds choose to "escape" as well. Next week is the week before National Day. A shares should also be careful of operating modes of reducing positions and avoiding risks before the holiday.
The top five major net inflow industry sectors: banks, liquor, beverages, oral, and atmospheric governance; the top five major net inflow concept sectors: new urbanization, PVDF concept, healthy China, magnetic levitation, aircraft carrier ; The main force net inflow of stocks top ten: China Telecom , Baoxin Technology, Dofluoro , Tinzhuang Co., Ltd., Yuntianhua , Kweichow Moutai , CATL , Agricultural Bank of China, Rongyu Group , Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
weekend brokerage daily mentioned the rise index again in the fourth quarter "7 rises in 10 years", which means an increase of 70%. Will this probability of rise give you hope again? Riding a bull and watching the bear thinks 2022 is an unusual year. All common sense is useless and all probability will be "slapped in the face". As for the probability, just listen to it, because rising index does not mean you can make money. Brother Niu still said the same thing, telling everyone to be cautious.
Institutional funds consistency in 2022 are optimistic about the growth track, but in addition to , the new energy sector of performed well this year, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, liquor and other tracks did not give investors a "good face", but instead showed a continuous decline, especially the pharmaceutical track, which made people say "can't understand"!
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates twice in November and December this year, which is also the main reason why A-shares dare not rebound. The current trend has reached around 3,000 points. If it goes down, it is probably the cost position where institutional funds can't stand it. The key is to see if there is a turning point in October!
reduced toll van tolls by 10% in the fourth quarter, and reduced the government-priced port fee for cargo by 20% in the fourth quarter. This news will make the express delivery company's profits in the second half of the year exceed expectations, and it will also be very beneficial to foreign trade imports and exports. Recently, shipping stocks have attracted the attention of institutional funds, and under the special environment of "Golden September and Silver October", it is expected to usher in a new round of freight peak period. This year, the country has taken many measures to "reduce fees", with the purpose of alleviating market pressure and allowing companies to have better revenue growth. With the impact of geopolitics on the energy crisis, countries have begun to reserve "energy war", and my country's vast land and wealth are one of the main countries this time. The supply of bulk commodities will be carried out directly through shipping, air transport, land and pipelines and other means of transportation.
With the influence of the global "energy shortage", when everyone focused on natural gas , oil, coal and other resources, Europe had already begun to work on home appliances such as air conditioners, electric water heaters, and electric blankets.
Summer has just passed and autumn has ushered in, causing some European suppliers to start urgently purchasing winter substances. From the public data of General Administration of Customs , it can be seen that in July, the number of Chinese electric blankets imported by EU 27 countries reached 1.29 million, an increase of nearly 150% month-on-month. I found that there was a wave of early ordering in September, and many European suppliers began to "replenish orders".
EU natural gas prices soared to historical highs. Brother Niu also thought that the electricity bill has exceeded the standard in three stops this summer. It has never been encountered such a large household electricity consumption in just 2 months. Natural gas prices this winter will also be higher than in previous years. It seems that this year's gas should be prepared before the end of the year to avoid insufficient purchases in the second year.
Judging from the geopolitical situation of Russia-Ukraine relations, the war is far from over. I am afraid that the "energy shortage" will escalate this winter. It seems that Europe's natural gas prices will also hit a record high. I still remember that this year, the electricity bill in the UK has increased by 50 times. Some families cannot afford electricity. In winter, many families cannot afford natural gas. It is still necessary to buy electric blankets and air conditioners. Then pay attention to whether there are good news in the home appliance sector. After all, the winter in Europe is really cold, and minus 20 degrees Celsius will die.
Onshore RMB and Offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below the 7.1 mark, continuing to hit a new low in June 2020. The Fed's September interest rate meeting sent out a hawkish signal that exceeded expectations, not only hikes by 75 basis points, but also implying that subsequent monetary policy will continue to tighten. This also means that the US dollar will continue to rise, and the exchange rate of and in various countries that are exchanged may show a collective adjustment trend, which is also the advantage of the globalization of the US dollar.
Currently, more than 95% of countries settle in US dollars, which means that the United States has the absolute right to speak in US dollars. With the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the price of the US dollar will also rise, while the RMB is in a substantial weakness, setting a new low again in two years. The depreciation of the RMB will often have a certain impact on the economic situation, especially the companies that import commodities will have a significant loss impact. Before
has taken action to regulate the exchange rate. It is not ruled out that it will continue to raise the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits in the future. The purpose is to stabilize the exchange rate and ensure the global value of the RMB. The central bank's toolbox for exchange rate regulation includes various regulatory methods such as the mid-price window guidance , regulating swap points, countercyclical factors, etc. At present, the central bank has not taken action yet, and there are many ways to regulate it later. There are no need to worry too much, wait for the strong counterattack applause!
new energy and large consumer sectors, from entering the market before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates , to leaving the market after the interest rate hike, not because of how much money he made, but because he was disappointed! From one aspect, it shows the view of institutional funds on the future market. After these two directions did not rise, it is difficult for the market to have opportunities. Just like the bull-watching bears repeatedly mentioned in September: "If you want the index to rebound, you still need to rely on blue-chip stock . This view has not changed." Judging from the big data analysis of individual stocks in September, blue-chip stocks have significantly better resistance to declines. Even if a big blue-chip stock is a day this week, the overall data is still stronger than other sectors.
The military industry sector has begun to rise due to the influence of peripheral military exercises. In addition, the escalation of relations between Russia and Ukraine makes people suspect that the investment opportunities in the military industry sector are becoming more and more obvious. It is just that the domestic "spectator" is the one who is a "spectator". In the future, you should pay attention to coming and going quickly. Technology sectors such as semiconductors, chips, 5G are still subject to the US technology laws, as well as the recent concepts such as Metauniverse and digital currency have plummeted. The technology track is affected by the peripheral market. This sector still needs to be careful. Now, sectors that find some logical support may not necessarily rise, let alone sectors with logical risks.
on Monday to pay attention to whether can stabilize the market above 3000 points. Then, we need to look at the range of 3000 points to 3050 points. This is the strong support point in the early stage. The most important thing is that 3000 points is the last "psychological price" for all investors. He said without joke: "If all 3,000 points fall below, then the lowest point of this round of rebound market will definitely fall below."The Federal Reserve is still falling after hikes interest rates. Brother Niu suddenly feels that he wants to be burned together? If the financial crisis is coming, it seems that this year of Tiger is really " tiger goes down the mountain", ah!
Pay attention to whether ChiNext Index can stabilize around 2300 points on Monday. The first one fell by ChiNext , and it was the biggest one. Now it is less than 8% lower than the previous low of 2122.32 points. This way of playing is a mid-yin line . If someone in this market says to you, "Let's layout be in advance and wait for a big rise, he must have been deeply trapped. "If someone tells you, "If you don't destroy it, you won't be established!" "Brother Niu will tell you affectionately that there is actually a basement when he arrives on the first floor. Now he is not sure, so Brother Niu dares not do anything.
