[Text/Observer Network Xiong Chaoran] The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out in early February this year triggered a series of sanctions against Russia, which gradually evolved into a "energy game battle" between Russia and Europe and the United States. Now, Europe and the United States have decided to limit energy prices on Russia, while Russia responds with the North Stream pipeline completely stopping gas transmission. Although it is only September, the cold winter in Europe seems to have arrived early.
htmlOn September 2, G7 (G7) and EU have made consecutive statements, deciding to implement price limits on Russia's oil and natural gas products, which once again increased the tension in the energy situation. Subsequently, Gazprom (hereinafter referred to as Gazprom) announced the "complete suspension" of natural gas transportation on the "North Stream 1" pipeline on the grounds of "technical failure", and did not mention the time for the resumption of supply. Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference Medvedev even directly warned that "Europe will directly have no Russian natural gas available."After the Russian side made this reaction, all mainstream Western media focused on the report, and expressed their concerns about future energy tensions in Europe. " New York Times " said that Russia's move "competition" and "surprisingly". Moscow is taking advantage of Europe's vulnerability in natural gas to turn the energy war between the two sides into a "protracted war."
" Wall Street Journal " pointed out that Russia's closure of "North Stream 1" is not a "technical failure", but a political color, and bluntly stated that this move will bring the cold winter in Europe ahead of schedule. The newspaper sarcastically pointed out that in the face of "energy coercion", Europe's plan to abandon Gazette is to rely more on Gazette and try to hoard more natural gas in advance to survive this winter.
" Washington Post " also agrees with the argument that "European winter is coming early" and believes that due to the further push up subsequent energy prices, in addition to climate and somatosensory, Europe will also encounter a "winter" economically. According to the latest economic data released, inflation rates in 19 countries in the euro zone reached 9.1% in August this year, setting a record high.
Regarding the European and American desire to form a "buyer monopoly alliance" to limit Russian energy prices, Reuters analysis pointed out that this move is "easier to say than to do." On the one hand, the price limit measures may backfire and lead to further increase in global energy prices; on the other hand, many members of the United Nations UN are unwilling to follow Europe and the United States on the Russia-Ukrainian issue to condemn Russia, and China and India may also objectively become obstacles to price limit measures.
Data picture: Patrol police outside the German Chancellor's Office
New York Times: Russia is tit-for-tat, and the energy war may last for a long time
0 On September 2, local time, the New York Times pointed out in the report title that after closing the "North Stream 1" natural gas pipeline for three days of repair, Russia failed to open as scheduled but continued to close the pipeline. This decision was "surprise", which intensified people's concerns that Russia will increase its use of energy to put pressure on Europe.
reported that Russia's move to completely shut down the Nord Stream 1 is to "tit-for-tat" with the European and American price limit decisions, which seems to be part of the larger-scale struggle between Moscow and the West on energy issues and the situation in Ukraine. The report also quoted Eric Mamer, spokesman for European Commission , as saying that the excuse of Russia's completely shutting down natural gas pipelines is "absurd" and proves that the other party is "selfish and hypocritical."
Screenshot of the New York Times report
Report believes that energy has always been the core tool used by Russia to achieve geopolitical goals. No matter what the real reason for the latest move of Russia-China, there is no doubt that the energy war has become a "proxy war" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. At present, Russia is taking advantage of Europe's vulnerability in natural gas to push energy prices across Europe to extremely high levels, thus raising concerns about the difficulties faced by life this winter.
Some analysts also speculate that the energy war in the oil and gas sectors will be "long-lasting".Analysts at Goldman Sachs said that Russia is likely to repeat what it does with natural gas to retaliate against G7's restrictions on Russian oil prices, i.e. "Closing production lines and cutting ties with buyers, thereby increasing global oil prices and its own revenue."
Among countries that are concerned about the permanent closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Germany, which relies heavily on Russian natural gas, has been panicing energy before the winter arrives to prevent Russia from shutting down production.
Russia transports natural gas daily flow table to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, gradually restricting it since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Figure 1 From the New York Times
According to the AFP , a spokesperson for the German Ministry of Economic Affairs claimed on September 2 that Germany has seen Russia's "unreliable" as a supplier, and its preparations are far more sufficient than a few months ago. She said that Germany originally planned to reach the target of 85% gas storage by October 1, but now the completion of this target can be advanced to the first few days of September.
After Brexit, its energy regulator said last week that from October, the energy costs of 24 million households in the country will rise by 80%, and the next prime minister is under great pressure to prevent the arrival of a "disaster winter." Facing a severe situation, in fact, governments across the European continent are trying to intervene in the energy market.
"Wall Street Journal": Winter is coming early, Europe relies heavily on Russian gas
On September 2, local time, the Wall Street Journal published an editorial article, announcing the decision to completely shut down the "North Stream 1" natural gas pipeline indefinitely, allowing Europe to face the early winter time to arrive early.
article said that this year's winter in Europe is "destined to be cold", and Russia's move has brought the winter in Europe early this year. If the so-called "indefinite shutdown" time is as long as many people worry, it will inevitably disrupt Europe's energy plans.
Editorial pointed out that Russia's so-called "maintenance pipeline" rhetoric is only superficial, but in fact this move is political. Since G7 announced that it would limit Russian oil prices, the Kremlin is punishing Germany and its allies that rely heavily on its energy.
Screenshot of the editorial article of the Wall Street Journal
As a US media, the Wall Street Journal pointed out the problems facing Europe from the perspective of bystanders. Although the Russian-Ukraine conflict has lasted for more than half a year, Europe is still relying on Russian natural gas. Countries such as France and Italy have made some progress in finding alternative suppliers such as Algeria , but their energy infrastructure is a weak link; while Germany lacks liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving stations and cannot import large quantities of natural gas from places outside Russia.
"So, Europe's plan to abandon Gas Russia is... relying on Gas Russia." It is ironic that in the past few months, Germany has scrambled to reserve as much natural gas as possible through "North Stream 1", but this process has also slowed down due to Gas Russia's capacity reduction.
article believes that Russia's complete shutdown of "North Stream 1" indefinitely is a landmark change, and the message conveyed to Europe is that it may be time to start implementing an Energy B plan without countermeasures on the European continent. And these will bring a "tragic winter" and unknowable consequences to Europeans and their politicians.
CNN also mentioned in the same day that Russia's actions have exacerbated the crisis of energy shortage in the European continent this winter, and pointed out that Germany, the largest economy in the EU, relies especially on Gazette to provide power for its households and heavy industries. Since June this year, Gazprom has reduced its production capacity of "North Stream 1" to 20%, citing problems such as maintenance and the inability to deliver turbine .
CNN emphasized that the latest data released by the European Statistics Office (Eurostatatml3) on August 31 local time showed that in August this year, the inflation rate in 19 countries in the euro zone reached 9.1%, the highest level on record. Among them, rising energy prices are the main reason for pushing up inflation, with energy prices in eurozone countries soaring by as much as 38.3% in August.
statistics on price increases in various fields in the euro zone, the largest in the energy field. Photo from the European Statistics website
"Washington Post": Energy prices soar, and the European economy is also facing a "winter".
Associated Press Report on this incident also seems unoptimistic. Reports said that European utilities have been rushing to find additional sources of supply this summer to prepare for winter heating demand. For this reason, they have purchased expensive liquefied natural gas transported by ships, and are seeking pipeline natural gas supply from Norway and Azerbaijan .
Associated Press report screenshot
Analysts said that with the accumulation of storage, Europe's concerns about winter energy supply have been alleviated, but with the Russian side completely shutting down "North Stream 1", this may bring serious difficulties to Europe. Simone Tagliapietra, energy analyst at Bruegel Institute in Belgium, said the EU needs to step up efforts to reduce natural gas consumption.
"A winter without Russian natural gas will be the main central scenario in Europe." The analyst painted the future in this way and said: "There is only one way to deal with it, that is, reduce the demand for natural gas and electricity."
The Washington Post also believes that Russia's actions may not only lead to the continent's lack of energy needed in winter, but also push up natural gas prices in the market. Once the "North Stream 1" pipeline is truly closed permanently, Europe will not only usher in a "specially cold winter", but also encounter a "bittering winter" at the economic level.
The Washington Post report screenshot
Commodity Research company ICIS Anxons Experts studying the direction of liquefied natural gas said: "It is worrying that if the supply is squeezed, alternatives must be found, and there (Europe) currently does not have enough infrastructure to replace these (pipeline) natural gas. This means that large industries that rely on natural gas in Europe may face closures because available fuels are used to keep warm in the home."
Reuters: It is easy to say energy limits for Russia, which is easier said than done
On September 2, local time, US Treasury Secretary Yellen issued a statement saying that the G7 Treasury Secretary has reached an agreement on limiting the price of Russian oil. Yellen said he looked forward to finalizing the specific implementation plan for the price ceiling in the coming weeks.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the same day that the plan to impose restrictions on Russian oil prices is "very ridiculous", which will lead to serious instability in the oil market. If unfriendly countries set upper limits on Russia's energy prices, Russia will begin supplying oil to countries operating on market conditions.
According to Reuters, on the same day, European Commission President von der Leyen attended a meeting of conservative legislators in the town of Murnau, Germany. On the sidelines of the meeting, she told the media that she "strongly believed" that it was time to set a price cap on Russian gas.
von der Leyen said that the power market has been severely damaged by the "manipulation" of Putin and cannot continue to operate normally. Therefore, she believes that the possibility of setting a price ceiling for natural gas from Russia can be proposed at the European level. "There is also a legal basis at the European level, and profits can be temporarily removed as an emergency measure in times of crisis."
In response to von der Leyen's statement, Russian Federation Security Conference Vice Chairman Medvedev also issued a warning on Telegram that day that if the EU sets an upper limit on Russian natural gas prices, "Europe will directly have no Russian natural gas available."
Screenshot of the announcement released by Gazprom
Moscow has responded to the continued suppression of Russia in the energy field of Europe and the United States. Reuters analyzed that setting a ceiling on Russian oil and gas prices is "easier to say, but hard to do."
report said that in 1995, as part of the oil-for-food program, the United Nations established a similar mechanism to allow Iraq to sell oil for food and medicines, but no price limit was set at that time.At that time, the Clinton administration, which proposed this plan, aimed at meeting the humanitarian needs of Iraqis and preventing the Saddam regime from improving its military strength. However, this plan has been eroded by widespread corruption and abuse.
Today is different from the past. Although the United Nations reached an agreement on opposing the Saddam regime at that time, many countries, except for the United States and Western countries, refused to condemn Russia for this conflict.
Reuters pointed out that as global oil prices rise, this offsets the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, which has gained more revenue in the energy sector than before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, Western countries began to realize that the direct embargo on Russian energy was counterproductive, so they proposed the idea of setting a price ceiling.
Reuters analysis article screenshot
The West wants to establish a "buyer monopoly alliance" to reduce Russia's petrodollar and at the same time alleviate the inflationary pressure brought by rising oil prices. Reuters believes this is challenging, especially as Russian President Putin may announce a complete ban on oil sales. Once Russia suspends selling energy to countries that support price caps, the price limit measures may backfire, leading to further increase in global energy prices.
Reuters pointed out that another obstacle to the energy price limit of Europe and the United States on Russia may come from China and India. With the price of Brent crude oil at $90 to $100 per barrel, Russian oil is selling to Chinese and Indian buyers at a discount of $18 to $25 per barrel. In addition, insurers in China and India can also help large fleets transport Russian oil.
"Russia and some buyers are already looking for other markets outside of the European insurance market, combining local insurance companies and sovereign guarantees. Therefore, this mechanism will not force all parties to participate fully in setting price caps," said Richard Bronze, an analyst at Energy Aspects, an energy think tank.
This article is an exclusive article of Observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.
