===Introduction to this article===[Main Market Analysis] Main Sweeping the Goods Two Main Lines Digging for Bull Stocks | Land Prices may not be far away after repeated land volume [Institutional View] Securities: Continuing the volatile adjustment trend in August | Small and med

=== Introduction to this article===

[Big Market Analysis] Main Sweeping the Stock Two Main Lines Digging for Bull Stocks | Land Prices may not be far after repeated land volume

[Institutional Views] Securities: Continuing the volatile adjustment trend in August | Small and medium-sized stocks will be squeezed

[Section Nuggets] National Defense and Military Stocks are expected in August | Blue-chip stocks will become the main direction of protection funds

=== Full text reading===

Special main force rare alternative sweep The two main lines of deep digging bull stocks

As of noon, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3708.66 points, down 47.88 points, down 1.27%, with a turnover of 289.33 billion, and the Shenzhen Component Index was 12549.96 points, down 161.60 points, down 1.27%, with a turnover of 290.98 billion, and the ChiNext Index was 2507.58 points, down 38.58 points, down 1.52%.

Although the market launched a counterattack in a positive way on Tuesday, the volume of the two markets did not amplify, but many investors were worried. However, if we look at the rare alternative "big sweep" chips for special main players, investors do not have to worry about the current market shrinkage. Instead, they can regard the shrinkage as a bottoming rebound with stable price and stable price.

In the July stock market crash, the most eye-catching thing was the national team's securities companies and various private equity institutions. According to statistics, from July 6 to yesterday, the "Four King Kongs" business department of CITIC Securities, as the national team, swept the goods in a crazily manner, with net purchases of 43.446 billion yuan, 37.922 billion yuan, 27.716 billion yuan and 15.803 billion yuan, respectively, totaling 124.887 billion yuan; in addition, since July, about 30 listed companies have been crazily promoted by insurance funds, private equity tycoons, and PE institutions. If the national team bought 100 billion yuan to maintain stability, then these private equity institutions are attracted by the value of the market. After all, these private equity institutions are not charities. Therefore, we should be full of confidence in the current rebound market, especially for stocks with national teams, industrial capital increase, and private equity tycoons, we can be more bold and confident in eating meat.

Capital tycoons and the national team rarely "sweep the funds". We really should not lose confidence in the market. The current shrinkage of the market volume is more due to the rapid decline in leverage between the two margin trading companies, and the decline in leverage will be more conducive to the development of the market's structural market. Those stocks with reform and strategic emerging industries are expected to stand out in the structural market, such as the following two main lines.

1. The series of supporting documents for state-owned enterprise reform have basically been formed. At present, the market expects that the direction of reform of state-owned enterprises is the reform of property rights such as asset injection within the group. Due to the resistance to implementation, the market is extremely pessimistic about mixed ownership, but mixed ownership is an important supplement to economic transformation. Mixed ownership may be the key task of the second phase of reform of state-owned enterprises.

2. The National Development and Reform Commission places orders to stabilize growth from defense to offense. In the early stage, central leaders frequently emphasized the need to improve the real economy and reduce the bubble of the virtual economy by improving the quality of the economy. Against the backdrop of bottlenecks in the development of direct investment such as real estate, accelerating the upgrading of manufacturing should be the direction that the government is most concerned about.

Overall, with the frequent support of management and slow down from the two-way long-term army, the market is expected to usher in a continuous rebound after retaliation of Changyang. Therefore, in the current wide fluctuations in the stock index, we should not be afraid, but should strengthen our confidence in holding stocks. Especially for the two major lines above and the stocks with major funds entering, we can boldly make arrangements at low prices as the market pulls back. (Source: Guangzhou Wanlong)

A shares have rebounded again. Land prices may not be far away after repeated land volume

On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose unilaterally and closed at 100 points. A total of 2,195 stocks in the two markets rose, and more than 600 non-ST stocks hit the daily limit, and the sentiment boosted significantly. However, it is very sharp in contrast to the long-term negative day before yesterday, and the short-term fluctuations are very severe. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3756.54 points, up 3.69%, and the Shenzhen Component Index was 12711.56 points, up 4.52%; the SME Board and the ChiNext Index rose 4.56% and 6.12%; the two markets had a turnover of 906.4 billion yuan throughout the day.

theme stocks are rebounding breakthrough

Yesterday morning, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated slightly. When it hit 3601 points, the weighted stocks once again collectively protected the market, and the long-term sentiment was highlighted. Since then, the index rose unilaterally, and the theme growth stocks have shouldered the banner of rebound. Military industry stocks with more short-term drawdowns have hit the daily limit across the board. The themes that benefit from the transformation reform such as shipping, Internet+, and state-owned enterprise reform have risen one after another, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3,700 points in the afternoon. At the same time, it has promoted the SME Board and the ChiNext to usher in a retaliatory rebound after a sharp drop the day before yesterday.

Nearly 80% of the first-level industries outperformed the market, and the national defense and military industry rose 9.35%. Since *ST Shunchuan rose by 5.01%, four other stocks were suspended, and their index actually hit the daily limit; 12 industries such as communications and computers rose by more than 5%; banks, food and beverages, non-bank finance, and household appliances counted down. By concept classification, nearly 90% of sectors rose by more than 5%, aircraft carriers rose by 9.57%, and 25 sectors including IOE, smart IC cards, and chip localization rose by more than 7%. From the perspective of style, the theme has grown into a breakthrough in the market rebound, and the elasticity of the outstanding weight and defensive targets at the critical moment of the market protection is obviously insufficient.

Recently, the news has attracted a lot of attention. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges restricted trading on some accounts that frequently filed or frequently canceled declarations, suspected of affecting securities trading prices or other investors' investment decisions, and several institutions and "successful squads" were among them. On the evening of the 3rd, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced that the margin trading rules were modified to T+1, which would help further stabilize the market after restricting intraday reversal trading and ETF arbitrage. Subsequently, Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities were the first to announce the suspension of margin trading from the 4th, and many securities companies such as Guosen Securities, Qilu Securities, and Great Wall Securities also joined in. It is not difficult to see that under the unstable market sentiment, market rescue measures are still increasing, and investors should not lose confidence in the market.

may face the bottom after a short-term oscillation

From a technical analysis, yesterday's trend basically verified the judgment of this newspaper. After the Shanghai Composite Index formed a low-level golden cross at the 30-minute and 60-minute lines, the short-term double bottom prototype of 3537 points and 3549 points appeared, and the rebound came as expected. During the session, it did not break through the 3549 low point and oscillated upward to win the first hourly pressure level of 3670 points. After repeated recurring, it stood at the second 3750 point pressure level, and tended to be strong in the short term.

At present, the third pressure level of the Shanghai Composite Index 30-minute and 60-minute lines are both pointing to around 3850 points, and the possibility of short-term highs cannot be ruled out. However, here is the high point near the 20-day moving average and the 4,000 point breaking down. In the six trading days after falling below 4,000 points, the average daily transaction in the Shanghai Stock Exchange did not reach 550 billion yuan, which is only half of the peak. Therefore, whether it can effectively break through needs to pay attention to the change in volume.

Guolian Securities researcher Chen Xiao analyzed that the current trading volume is only one-third of that of the peak period. It can be verified from historical laws that when the trading volume shrinks to a certain level, the market will fall and the volume will bottom out. From a technical perspective, the various bottom structures of the market have not been fully formed, especially the trend of the GEM needs more attention. Often, when most investors have lost confidence, opportunities will slowly emerge. Although the bottom cannot be fully established at present, the market bottom is not far away.

Jufeng Investment Consulting believes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have revised the implementation rules of the two-financial trading and clarified the T+1 operation of margin trading. This is obviously an adjustment to stabilize the market and is a favorable support for the market rebound. At the same time, the recent establishment of many national team funds and the strict investigation of short selling and other measures and behaviors have made the market rescue results more significant. As the financing of the two sides continues to decline, the deleveraging effect is also very obvious, and the market gradually stabilizes. With the arrival of shrinking transactions, the transition from quantitative change to qualitative change is about to begin. After a short-term rise, the rebound banner may begin. However, before the trading volume is effectively released, the index still recurs, but the room for upward is much greater than the room for downward.

control position can buy

Whenever the position falls, Chen Xiao believes that starting this week, it is still recommended that investors wait for the confirmation of the bottom signal and prepare bullets. Once the market falls again, they can build positions in batches. In terms of choosing targets, investors are advised to pay attention to the varieties with large declines in the previous period, especially individual stocks with better performance and strong policy expectations.

Some industry insiders pointed out that the current short-term market is mainly focused on the oversold rebound of theme stocks and the main force’s self-rescue, and the overall weak stocks are weak. Based on the realistic consideration of shrinking trading volume, radical investors can explore short-term opportunities for theme stocks, while stable investors can continue to wait patiently. After all, the risks in the market directional selection stage are still difficult to control. If you choose to enter the market, it is recommended that investors follow the operating rules of box oscillation and control positions to conduct ultra-short-term fast in and out, and they are still buying high-performance stocks with expected increase in interim reports and state-owned assets reform themes at low prices.

Great Wall Securities pointed out that the market will enter a volatile range with a top and a bottom, and structural opportunities will become more and more apparent. From the mid-line perspective, choose varieties with performance, good growth and reasonable valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to new energy vehicles, agriculture, environmental protection, military industry and other industries; in terms of themes, continue to pay attention to state-owned enterprise reform, Disney, etc. (Source: Volkswagen Securities News)

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Brokerage: August continued to fluctuate adjustment trend

Recently, many mainstream brokerages released strategy reports to look forward to the August market. When they said that the reversal expected by all parties in July was not realized, and the market was still unstable. Therefore, it is expected that the market operation in August will still be under pressure, and investors are also in a fragile investment state. It will take time for market confidence to recover, and A-shares will continue to fluctuate adjustment trend. For thematic investment, you can pay attention to Tongzhou, Communications, Military Industry, and Blue Horse Growth Stocks with stable performance.

Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the core trading characteristics of August are characterized by the game between the internal adjustment requirements of the market and the trend of rescue funds. The institution further pointed out that the momentum of the market's spontaneous upward rebound is very weak. Investors mainly trade and sell operations based on the trend of rescue funds. It is reflected in the market that after a sharp drop, investors followed the rescue funds into the market and rushed to rebound, but the space above is limited. After the rebound, they fell into an adjustment trend. This repeated, forming a trend of slow adjustment step by step.

Regarding the market performance in August, Haitong Securities stated that after the policy bottom, the fluctuation confirmed the market bottom. First, the policy bottom has emerged, and stability maintenance is still continuing. The market bottomed out for the second time last week, and investors were worried about resurgence, even more pessimistic than before. Secondly, the current situation of capital entering the market is not good, and there is no obvious net inflow of bank and securities transfers representing retail investors. By account, the number of super large and large investors is still shrinking in July compared with June.

Haitong Securities believes that market confidence will take time to recover. Learn from past international experience. After the policy bottom, the market bottom will fluctuate and confirm the market bottom. The market bottom is often accompanied by a significant shrinkage of trading volume, and the final trading volume will shrink to 30-40% of the previous high. The current trading volume of A-shares has shrunk to 58.48 billion shares, which is 45% of the peak, and may still shrink further.

Guosen Securities also pointed out that the continuous decline from June to July has too large amplitude, the effectiveness of resistance and buying on dips is limited, the market is extremely unstable, and the operation in August is still under pressure. Compared with the several high-level declines in history, even if we refer to a more moderate method, the decline will reach a certain extent first, and then the fluctuation will take time and will mainly adjust for the next period of time. Secondly, it is uncertain whether the decline has reached two consecutive months from June to July. Therefore, it is expected that the volatile adjustment in August is a high probability event.

Overall, most brokerages appear to be cautious in their judgment of short-term market conditions, while Anxin Securities is relatively optimistic. The institution said that in the long run, the fundamental logic of the bull market has not changed. One of the impacts of the previous sharp drop was the stock market's leverage reduction. After the stock market experiences non-transparent high leverage sales, market volatility has decreased, and the "long bull" pattern may not be just a dream. In the short term, some important positive signals are emerging. First, industrial capital increased actively, and the proportion of increase or reduction of holdings changed, far exceeding 100%; second, fund positions were low; third, residents did not withdraw large amounts of funds from the stock market due to the sharp drop.

From the perspective of industry configuration, Anxin Securities recommends paying attention to three lines: First, it is recommended to pay attention to sectors with a high probability of rebound in the second half of the year, including agriculture (livestock and poultry breeding, sugar), communications (Internet infrastructure), and electronics (military industry and intelligent manufacturing); second, the direction of revitalization in the Northeast is determined, and it is recommended to pay attention to high-end equipment manufacturing; third, the "Belt and Road" continues to advance, and pay attention to the railway infrastructure sector.

In terms of theme investment, Haitong Securities recommends that in the medium term, we should dig deep into transforming growth stocks and allocate stable white horse growth; in the short term, we should focus on the theme of active fiscal growth, and build Tongzhou and urban pipelines. (Source: Shanghai Securities News)

Mingda Asset Liu Mingda: Small and medium-sized stocks will be squeezed in the second half of the year

Regarding the recent phenomenon of thousands of stocks hitting the limit in the market, Liu Mingda, chairman of Mingda Asset Management, believes that this is due to human nature - mainly because investors' expectations for stock liquidity are too high, "In addition, they are also influenced by Internet information.Internet information spreads rapidly, but 99% of fragmented information is valuable. "He expects that small and medium-sized stocks will be squeezed by blue-chip stocks in the second half of this year.

Liu Mingda said that the sharp fluctuations in the stock market are related to squeezing the bubble. The fundamental purpose of the government's stability is to increase market stability, and the intention of "big governance" must be for great development.

Liu Mingda was the earliest investor in China to issue sunshine private equity funds. He said that 20 years of securities investment experience proved that there has never been a stock god in the capital market. 95% or 98% of fund managers in the investment history were underperforming the market. Often in the bubble stage, the story of a stock god will be circulated in the market.

Take the US market as an example. Many funds with investment returns of more than 30% will eventually be The mythical investment story ended before the Nasdaq bubble burst in 2000. If investors understand and respect the above rules, they may have a better understanding of the occurrence and consequences of this market change.

Liu Mingda believes that the following three reasons will support the future bull market under capital opening:

First, the policy direction of opening up to promote interest rates will improve corporate performance and improve market valuation level. The government-led goals and means of long-term interest rate downturn are very clear, but this requires a gradual process.

Second, after the capital is opened, foreign investment demand for trillions of dollars will repair the existing relatively undervalued investment products prices; including the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. The open system will truly open a door for free capital flow, introducing stable investors of pensions and corporate pensions, including overseas index funds, pensions and insurance companies. At that time, China's capital market will be more inclusive and the investor group will be more diversified.

Third, opening will activate domestic investment demand. After the rapid expansion of residents' wealth, the allocation trend structure will be adjusted, such as the scale of social security and pension funds will continue to expand.

In the context of capital opening, Liu Mingda insisted that China's capital pricing, especially blue-chip stocks, is seriously low. With the opening of a new round of currency expansion cycle, the bad debt rate of banks will decrease. Investors holding US dollars can pay close attention to the United States The national economy changes to prevent losses.

The Shanghai Composite Index center given by Liu Mingda is 4,000 points for the judgment of the specific points of the market. When the gross domestic product (GDP) further rebounded in August and September, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index will gradually rise and close to more than 4,000 points at the end of the year.

Unlike many investors' judgments on growth stocks in the second half of the year, Liu Mingda insists that small and medium-sized stocks will be squeezed by blue-chip stocks. Specifically, he is optimistic about big finance and big consumption, especially the banking sector. (Source: Securities Times)

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Industry catalysts continue to be The August market for national defense and military stocks is expected to be

The defense and military industry sector returned strongly yesterday, and the sector was close to the daily limit. In CITIC's first-level industry, the 35 stocks that can be traded in this sector, except for Tianhe Defense rising 6.19% and Quanxin Shares rising 8.62%, all the other 33 stocks hit the daily limit. The industry believes that the military industry has a high strategic position, and in the second half of the year, there are industry catalysts such as parades commemorating the 70th anniversary of the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japan. The sector's market in August is expected and is expected to become the main leading sector.

Since December 2013, the investment theme of military industry has been clearly reformed, and core industry support, asset integration, pricing reform system, and civilian participation in the military have become the four main lines of reform. The A-share market's hot favor for military stocks has also lasted for a while. Since the management rescued the market on July 9, the CITIC Defense Military Industry Index has hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Although the increase has shrunk since then, the index has continued to rise until it fell into a wave of adjustment on July 27. Yesterday, the sector returned strongly, with a closing increase of 9.96%.

"In the past two weeks, the military industry sector has risen slightly, but the amplitude has increased significantly, which is in line with our previous judgment that the sector's short-term rebound has entered the mid-to-late stage." CITIC Securities analyst Gao Song believes that the current sector's valuation has rebounded from 25 times the bottom to 40 times. If the market further adjusts, the sector may have a significant correction; but after the market stabilizes, considering the subsequent catalysts, we are still generally optimistic about the performance in the third quarter.

sorted out the news in the military industry and found that there are really a lot of catalysts.On July 29, the Civil Aviation Administration and the Air Force jointly issued the "Management Opinions on Strengthening the Support of Military-Civilian Airports in the Air Force." On July 30, the People's Daily published a special commentary article by Shi Luze, Chief of Staff of the Beijing Military Region, "In-depth Development of Military-Civilian Integration, Better Strengthen the Country and Prosper the Military". The article quoted Xi Jinping's important statement on promoting the in-depth development of military-civilian Integration, which is of great guiding significance for my country's future military-civilian Integration.

In addition, the catalysts for the later stage of the military industry sector include: the Chinese and Russian armies will hold a joint military exercise code-named "Maritime Joint-2015 (II)" in the waters of Peter the Great Bay, Cape Krelka coast and Japanese sea and sea airspace from August 20 to 28; the military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japan on September 3; the expected launch of major engine projects; the expectation of military system reform and the surrounding situation that may be tense at any time will continue to boost the sector market.

"From the recent perspective, the military industry has continued to have catalysts in the second half of the year. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities in the second half of the year. We recommend that the market stabilize and increase the allocation of military industry." Shenwan Hongyuan analyst Zhao Longlong recommends Galaxy Electronics, Zhongzhi Co., Ltd., AVIC Power, Zhonghaida, Sichuan Jiuzhou, etc., and recommends paying attention to AVIC Aircraft, Guorui Technology, Haite High-tech, Aerospace Morning Light, Jicheng Electronics, etc.

Galaxy Securities analyst Wang Huajun also suggested paying close attention to the military parade on September 3 and the Sino-Russian military exercises in August, and it is recommended to over-equipment of military industry, especially the targets purchased by Chairman Lin Zuoming of AVIC, such as AVIC, AVIC aircraft, and AVIC helicopter platform; military-civilian integration is upgraded to a national strategy, and it is recommended that Hitt High-tech, Weihai Guangtai, Lijun Co., Ltd., Sichuan Jiuzhou, and Zongshen Power be recommended. (Source: Volkswagen Securities News)

low-valuation blue-chip stocks became the main focus of the market protection funds

Yesterday, the markets of the two markets opened steadily, showing a volatile upward trend throughout the day. In the end, both closed with a sharp rise. The two markets had a total turnover of 906.47 billion yuan, and the volume was slightly larger than Monday. There are obvious signs of capital increase. According to data, the net inflow of funds in the market in the two markets on Tuesday was 42.312 billion yuan.

This is mainly reflected in the machinery, transportation and logistics, electricity, computers, transportation and other sectors. Among them, the machinery sector ranked first in net inflows of funds, with net inflows of 4.52 billion yuan. The largest stocks in net inflows were China Heavy Industry, CRRC and China First Heavy Industry, with net inflows of 1.745 billion yuan, 532 million yuan and 331 million yuan respectively. The transportation and logistics sector ranked second in net inflows, with net inflows of 3.92 billion yuan. The largest stocks inflows were China Eastern Airlines, Hainan Airlines and China Southern Airlines, with net inflows of 735 million yuan, 615 million yuan and 452 million yuan respectively. The power sector had a net inflow of 3.06 billion yuan, and the largest stocks inflows were China Nuclear Power, Guodian Power and Huadian Energy, with net inflows of 988 million yuan, 419 million yuan and 309 million yuan respectively.

Only the tourism and hotel sector, which had relatively large increases in the previous period, showed a net outflow of funds. The sector had a net outflow of 11 million yuan, and the largest stocks in net outflow were Guo Travel United, Tibet Tourism, and Changbai Mountain, with net outflows of 106 million yuan, 57 million yuan and 44 million yuan respectively.

blue chip theme fund

mobile phones can also open an account to buy funds, click here to download

Data Source: Oriental Wealth Choice Data, Tiantian Fund Research Center, As of Date: 2015-08-04

Such capital flow shows that the targets of the market protection funds represented by Securities Finance Corporation are mainly low-valuation blue-chip stocks. In the past two trading days, the pursuit of low-valuation varieties has increased, and electricity stocks and air transport stocks have therefore become the focus of market attention.

However, in terms of medium- and long-term trends, the growth potential of low-valuation blue-chip stocks is actually not suitable to be too expected. Taking electricity stocks as an example, my country's electricity demand has cooled down significantly, and the industrial growth space of the power industry has shrunk significantly. Moreover, although my country currently focuses on thermal power, clean energy such as hydropower and nuclear power, as well as new energy businesses such as solar energy and wind power are developing rapidly, which will further erode the business space of thermal power. Therefore, the growth space of power stocks with thermal power stocks as the core is not very optimistic.

Although the current market protection funds have increased the attention of low-valuation blue-chip stocks, due to the performance elasticity and stock price elasticity of these individual stocks, it is not advisable to chase the rise during operation.

Of course, a small number of individual stocks in these low-valuation blue-chip stocks may have certain trading opportunities due to the recent positive changes in fundamentals. For example, due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles in the automotive field, the performance of companies with new energy vehicles as the core business may exceed expectations, such as individual stocks such as Zhongtong Bus can still be tracked. For example, crude oil prices plummeted, and the performance elasticity of air transport stocks is still expected to exceed expectations, and such individual stocks can also be tracked. (Source: Shanghai Securities News)

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