The US dollar index hit a 20-year high, and the stock market and commodities were suppressed by negative pressure; the CSI 500 futures fell nearly 3%, hitting a new low since its listing, while the CSI 500 futures fell more than 2%; LPG and pulp fell 2%. [Industry News] China Iro

USD index hit a 20-year high, and the stock market and commodity were suppressed by negative pressure; CSI 500 futures index fell nearly 3%, hitting a new low since its listing, and the CSI 500 futures index fell more than 2%; LPG and pulp fell 2%.

[Industry News]

China Steel Association: In mid-September, key statistics on steel enterprises' daily steel production increased by 3.51% month-on-month

Bank China Steel Association: In mid-September 2022, key statistics on steel enterprises produced a total of 21.4503 million tons of crude steel, 19.6784 million tons of pig iron, and 20.9789 million tons of steel. Among them, the daily output of crude steel was 2.145 million tons, an increase of 2.23% month-on-month; the daily output of pig iron was 1.9678 million tons, an increase of 1.82% month-on-month; the daily output of steel was 2.0979 million tons, an increase of 3.51% month-on-month.

The stocks of imported iron ore in 45 ports nationwide decreased by 5.3472 million tons on a month-on-month basis

Mysteel counted the stocks of imported iron ore in 45 ports nationwide at 13184.20, a month-on-month basis 534.72; the average daily port discharge volume increased by 35.36. In terms of component, Australian mines fell by 369, Brazil mines 4598.33, 39.83; trade mines 7859.74 fell by 361.54, pellet 578.55 fell by 11.11, refined powder 871.432 fell by 49.49, block mines 2092.67 fell by 114.71, and coarse powder 9641.55 fell by 359.41. (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Galaxy Futures : The US dollar index is still in the upward channel

Galaxy Futures said that the upward trend of the US dollar index is not only affected by the Federal Reserve interest rate hike , but the pace of the ECB and the Bank of England rate hike will also have a greater impact on it, that is, the interest rate spread will have an impact on the US dollar index. At the same time, the market's expectations for the economic trends of countries around the world are also an important reason for the fluctuations in exchange rate . At present, the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike will continue, and the overall performance of the US economy is still stronger than that of non-US countries. The US dollar index is still in an upward channel, and the non-US exchange rate is expected to continue under pressure.

Xingtai , Dingzhou and some coke companies in Shandong started their first round of increase

On September 22, the price of metallurgical coke in the Shanxi market was stable and strong. Some coke companies in Xingtai, Dingzhou and Shandong started their first round of increase, with wet extinguishing up by 100 yuan/ton and dry extinguishing up by 110 yuan/ton. There was no response from mainstream steel mills.

[Institutional Views]

USD to set a new high in 20 years! What is the impact of following interest rate hikes?

Federal hikes sharply by 75 basis points on Thursday, the third consecutive rate hike this year was 75 basis points, the largest intensive rate hike since 1981. Currently, the interest rate hike has been raised by 300 basis points. The US dollar index continued to rise, touching the 111 mark; Feimei currency fell collectively, the RMB fell below the 7.1 mark, and the yen fell to a 20-year low.

After the Fed's continued interest rate hikes, the central bank of many countries also kept pace with the pace of interest rate hikes. On September 22, the Central Bank of Qatar announced a 75 basis point rate hike; the Central Bank of the Philippines raised the overnight borrowing rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%. Vietnam raises refinancing rate to 5%, and increases the discount rate from 2.5% to 3.5%. The Indonesian Central Bank raised the 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate to 4.25% from 3.75%. In addition, the Norwegian Central Bank hikes interest rates by 50 basis points, raising the interest rate from 1.75% to 2.25%, which is also in line with market expectations. The Swiss National Bank announced a 75 basis point rate hike.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, said that the US dollar may remain strong in the short term, but lacks the basis for continuing to strengthen significantly. The current US economy is slowing down, the risk of economic recession is rising, and the strengthening of the US dollar deviates from fundamentals.

For non-ferrous metals , Hou Yahui, senior analyst at Shenwan Futures, believes that in the short term, the traditional peak season in September is less than expected, which may put non-ferrous metal prices under pressure and the Federal Reserve raise interest rates. In the medium and long term, the trend of non-ferrous metals depends on the strength of the fundamentals of each variety. Weak fundamentals such as lead and tin will still drag down the prices. Products such as copper and nickel that have relatively support for their relative fundamentals may have a possibility of further exploration in the future, and the rebound range of aluminum may depend on the degree of interference on the supply side. Whether the downstream terminal demand for non-ferrous metals in October can actually improve is still the decisive factor in the rebound height of the second half of the year. Overall, we are cautiously optimistic during the peak season, and nonferrous metal prices may be under pressure after the peak season.

How to turn oil prices in the fourth quarter? Institutional bearishness is mainly

After the situation in Russia and Ukraine further escalated, international oil prices fluctuated sharply.In this regard, Dong Dandan, chief analyst of CITIC Energy and Chemical, said that if the situation in Russia and Ukraine escalates again, it may be a short-term positive and medium- and long-term negative. The short-term positive is that Russia's oil supply will be further excluded from the world. The medium- and long-term negative is that the world cannot withstand higher oil prices. After rising, it will usher in a long-term downturn or weakness.

CITIC Futures analyst Yang Jiaming said that supply continues to increase, demand continues to decline, and excess expectations continue to exist. In the context of no deterioration of supply, as long as the interest rate hike cycle, oil prices continue to fall, which will be a high probability event, mainly related to the realization of inflation targets in Europe and the United States. Once supply changes beyond expectations, a short-term rebound is inevitable. It is necessary to reflect the supply and demand gap through rising oil prices. Once fully reflected, oil prices will continue to fall.