Source: New Fujian
According to China Review News Agency, the current cross-strait relations are not good and have been described as shutdown, but Taiwan's exports to the mainland have not decreased but increased. The former "Central Committee Chairman of the National Development Council" Lin Zujia said at the seminar on the 48th that the mainland's economy can drive cross-strait trade, and Taiwan's economy will continue to grow. Last year, Taiwan's exports to the mainland of US$150 billion and imports of 64 billion, with a surplus of more than 80 billion, so cross-strait economic and trade is irreplaceable.
Lin Zujia said that from Brexit , TPP was elected president of the United States in 2016, the United States withdrew from TPP, the Sino-US trade war began, and then to the outbreak of the epidemic, a series of changes in economics have encountered many changes, which have had a great impact on the global economy. Taiwan is also the "main policy office" estimates that the economic growth rate this year is 4.64%, but the "Taiwan Economic Academy", "Central Economic Academy" and "National Development Conference" can all exceed 5%.
He agrees with the prediction that Taiwan’s economic growth rate may exceed 5% this year, but there is no need to be too surprised, because in the global financial tsunami in 2009, Taiwan’s economic growth rate was negative 1.8%. When the global rebound in 2010 the following year, Taiwan’s economic growth rate was 10.8%, because Taiwan’s economy is very small, and as long as the global economy rebounds, Taiwan will be easily driven up.
He pointed out that the United States is the leader of the world economy after all, so how to restore the economy is concerned. Biden first lost a $1.9 trillion relief plan, and then sold 2.25 trillion to boost employment. There is also 1.75 trillion US household subsidy, which adds up to about 6 trillion US dollars. The US's annual GDP will be about 20 trillion US dollars, so the US government spending will be 30% of US GDP. This is actually very scary and will greatly increase the US debt ratio, which will help the economy in the short term, but it is difficult to say in the long run. However, the US vaccine is very fast, which means the recovery speed will accelerate, so global trade is expected to rebound sharply.
Lin Zujia analyzed that Taiwan's economy has maintained a good economy since last year because of export growth, among which cross-strait trade accounts for 40% of exports. Therefore, if the mainland economy improves, it can drive cross-strait trade, and Taiwan's economy will continue to grow. Last year, Taiwan's exports to the mainland of US$150 billion and imports of 64 billion, with a surplus of more than 80 billion. This is because the global industries declined last year, only long-distance vehicles were very strong. Taiwan just happened to be very strong, so last year the electronics industry exported to 17%, and the output value accounted for 56% of exports.
He said that other industries are very miserable. The combined growth of production, steel, and petrochemicals is negative 8%, so it is the development of the K-shaped economy, which means that the electronics industry stands out and supports other industries. The economic growth rate last year remained at 3.1%, because the industry continues to export, and exports are entirely in the electronics industry.
Lin Zujia said that Taiwan’s electronic industry exports are booming because the mainland exports a lot of electronic products and buys a lot of electronic raw materials from Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan’s electronic industry exports significantly at the same time, which means that Taiwan’s exports to the mainland have grown significantly. From a regional perspective, Taiwan’s exports to the mainland grew by 14% last year, and exports to the United States grew by 9%, while others are negatively growing, so the most important thing is cross-strait economic and trade relations. Taiwan’s dependence on the mainland has increased from 40% to 43.8%. Although cross-strait relations are not good, cross-strait trade continues to grow.
