Starting from 8:00 local time on the 23rd, the four states of Ukraine controlled by the Russian army began to hold a referendum in an orderly manner to decide whether to join the Russian Federation. The referendum will last until the 27th, and the results will be announced within 5 days.
The day before the referendum officially began, the Russian polling agency All-Russian Social Opinion Center conducted a polling poll on people in these four states.
In an interview, a resident of Luhansk believed that only if they join the Russian Federation can they have a future. Donetsk leader Pushlin believes this is a historic moment. Former Khlsong MP Zhuravko claimed that residents were not afraid of artillery fire in the Ukrainian army and actively took to the streets to vote. The poll results of
showed that most respondents supported joining the Russian Federation, of which Donbas is 97%, the highest proportion, and the rest are also above 60%.
There will naturally be many people questioning the results of such polls. After all, it is a unilateral investigation by Russia and cannot be used as a basis.
Of course, the poll results can only be used as a reference. Whether to join the Russian Federation depends on the referendum results.
Of course, many people actually don’t accept referendums, but this is very common in European and American countries. For example, the Brexit referendum, the Scottish referendum, the Northern Ireland referendum, the Kosovo referendum and the Crimea referendum.
Regarding the results of the referendum, the West has relatively double standards, acknowledging the results of the Brexit referendum, and acknowledging the referendum on Kosovo departed from Serbia , but there are doubts about the results of the referendum on Crimea.
Of course, the West has always been like this. If it is in its own interests, it will admit it, and if it is not in line, it will object. Therefore, if the referendum results of the four Ukrainian states are beneficial to Russia, then the West will refuse to admit it and then step up efforts to impose sanctions on Russia.
Russia plans a referendum in Russia in Ukraine, which is controversial in international public opinion, so there are only a few countries that support the referendum and recognize the results of the referendum.
However, Russia doesn't care. The referendum is just a process. Even if the result does not meet Russia's expectations, as long as these four regions are still under the control of the Russian army, Russia will not spit out the fat meat at the mouth easily unless it can be defeated.
Therefore, the referendum was held under the control of the Russian army, and the result was likely to be towards Russia. I believe the West also realized this and was probably ready to increase the sanctions against Russia. It was only when the referendum result came out and launched the next round of offensive against Russia.
As a party involved, Ukraine naturally will not recognize the referendum. Zelensky now refuses peace negotiations and only wants to recover lost land by force and defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The local victory of the counterattack made Zelensky seem to see hope of reorganizing the mountains and rivers, so he continued to call on the West to increase its support for Ukraine at the UN General Assembly video conference, and those with money contribute money and those with strong efforts.
Zelensky's appeal was not in vain. Biden With a big stroke, he provided Ukraine with hundreds of millions of military aid funds. At the same time, the Secretary-General of NATO expressed that he was not afraid of Putin's nuclear deterrence and would unswervingly support Ukraine, but he should remain calm and not use nuclear weapons like Putin to intimidate.
From this point of view, NATO still sticks to the bottom line and will not easily engage in direct military confrontation with Russia to avoid escalation of war and harm itself. After all, Russia really has nuclear weapons and really has the courage to use nuclear weapons, which makes NATO very afraid.
After Putin announced a local mobilization and planned to recruit 300,000 reserve troops to join the army, Medvedev further explained to Putin's previous speech, claiming that Russia has no choice but to retreat now and use "all means" to defend national security, including the use of nuclear weapons, and to use nuclear weapons to self-defense for newly joined Russia's territory.
In other words, Russia is determined to win the four states of Ukraine and has regarded it as Russia's "new territory". After the referendum results come out, it is not ruled out that it will deploy nuclear weapons to eastern Ukraine to deter NATO.
Putin's press secretary Peskov said it more bluntly, claiming that after the four Ukrainian regions entered Russia, if the Ukrainian government forces try to take it back, it will be regarded as an attack on Russian territory by Moscow.
is like Crimea . Even if multiple parties oppose it, as long as Russia is determined to "eat it", it will be regarded as something in its pocket by Russia. The only way to stop it is to defeat Russia. However, it is difficult to achieve with Ukraine's current strength.
Previously, Russia, which had a million troops, was restrained in Ukraine. After fighting for so long, it still failed to completely capture the east of Ukraine. Moreover, it also lost some control areas under the Ukrainian counterattack. Many people think that the Russian army is just that, and it is a strong outside and a strong inside.
But judging from the current movements in Russia, it seems that Putin is going to take action seriously.
A few days ago, when meeting with Modi , Putin promised to end the conflict as soon as possible, and then announced the mobilization of 300,000 reserves, and also clearly supported the four Ukrainian states to hold a referendum.
Before this, due to constitutional restrictions, Russian conscripts were unable to go abroad to fight, and only some contract soldiers were sent to the Ukrainian battlefield, so the Russian army had a particularly difficult battle and did not look like a second military power at all.
Once the referendum results are released, the four Ukrainian states will successfully join the Russian Federation and Russia regards it as a "new territory", then Putin has reason to send a large number of conscripts to eastern Ukraine and completely take over the remaining areas in eastern Ukraine.
If it is not unexpected, the 27th will be a new turning point in the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Putin has promised to end the conflict as soon as possible. It depends on whether Ukraine and NATO still insist on fighting a protracted war and a war of attrition.
