According to Russian media reports on August 25, 2020, a spokesperson for the Russian Federation Military and Technical Cooperation Bureau said during the "Military-2020" forum that Russia and China are jointly designing a new generation of conventional-powered submarines. The spokesperson said, "We are working with China on jointly designing a new generation of conventional submarines, but it is too early to talk about completion." Russia is the world's top submarine power comparable to the United States, while China is an emerging submarine power with rapid leaps in submarine development capabilities in recent years. The two countries work together to develop a new generation of conventional submarines. Is this reliable?
The fourth generation of conventional submarines of the Russian Navy, the "Lada" class,
Russia and China do need a new generation of conventional submarines
Russia has strategically contracted since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with offshore defense as the main goal, and implemented the "two-legged walking" strategy. On the one hand, it builds a "brownwater fleet" with miniaturized ships as the backbone, and on the other hand, it relies on its own world-leading underwater fleet - submarine combat force, and regards conventional submarines as an important part of offshore defense and enriching the number of submarine fleets, making up for the insufficient number of nuclear submarine troops.
Although conventional submarines are not low in the Russian navy, their development priorities have always been low and have not received enough attention. The "Kilo"-class conventional submarines and their improved models developed during the Soviet era have long been known as "ocean black holes". The Russian Navy has relied on it as the backbone of the conventional submarine force for many years, precisely because the "Kilo" class is advanced enough that it has affected its pace of renewal.
However, with the rapid development of submarine technology in the past 10 years of the 21st century, especially the continuous service of the French "Crossfish" class, Germany's 212A/214/218 class, Japan's "Crossfish" class and its improved models, the "Kilo" class has become old and outdated in the fields of ship-electric systems, water sound systems, etc. In particular, the French "Crossfish" class submarine has won the bid in India's new generation of conventional submarine bidding projects, stealing India, Russia's most loyal and hardcore customer, which is enough to cause shock and impact on the Russian submarine industry. The "Kilo"-level despair in the international military trade market proves from the other side that its comprehensive technical and tactical capabilities have lost their advantages. Russia does need a new generation of submarines.
In fact, the Russian submarine industry has long launched the alternative boat model of the "Kilo" class, which is the 677 "Lada" class conventional submarine (the foreign trade model is called the "Amur" class). However, the "Lada" class conventional submarine has been having a tragic fate since the launch of design and development plans in the late 1980s. It was originally planned to purchase 8 ships, but due to technical problems, it was cut into three ships. After the first ship was completed, the second and third ships were shelved for a long time. The project seems to have been dismissed in the early 10th year of the 21st century. Until 2017, Russia suddenly resumed the construction of the second and third ships of the "Lada" class. The two submarines, the "Karanstad" and "Sevastopol", were respectively built in 2005 and 2006, are expected to be delivered to the Russian Navy in 2020 and 2021 after more than a decade of hard work.
Russian Navy improved "Kilo" class conventional submarine
However, although it is known as Russia's "fourth-generation conventional submarine", there are many problems with the "Lada" class. The most important one is that Russia encountered technical bottlenecks in the development of AIP power system technology. The AIP systems of the two technical routes of closed-circulation diesel engines and fuel cells were shut down due to various problems and technical obstacles, resulting in the "Kalanstadt" and "Sevastopol" that originally planned to install AIP power plants can only be installed without the AIP power system installed. Considering that AIP systems have become the standard configuration for advanced conventional submarines in the world, it is difficult to compete with world-class players without the "Lada" without the AIP power system.
In addition, although the "deep" improvements were made to the "Lada" class by adopting advanced technologies during the construction process, the foundation of the "Lada" class was established in the late 1980s, which restricted its large-scale adoption of new technologies and the potential of the platform was very limited. This is probably the main reason why Russia is concerned about the fact that it is unwilling to build the "Lada" class submarine on a large scale, but it is just the main reason why it has completed the construction of the two ships that have been launched.Now, in order to replace the aging Kilo class, Russia produces the "Lada" class submarines in low-speed and small batches at shipyards such as the Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg, but so far there are only 6 orders.
What Russia hopes is to put aside the "Lada", start the stove again, adopt the latest technological achievements at present, and redevelop a brand new conventional submarine. After China has mass-produced and continuously improved the launch of improved conventional submarines such as Type 039 and Type 039G/A/B in recent years, and has set off a "submarine craze", it has been relatively quiet in recent years. There is no news of large-scale construction of conventional submarines. Judging from all signs, during this "silent period", Chinese submarine engineers are obviously lying on firewood and trying to build a new generation of conventional submarines in China after the "Yuan" class. Therefore, Russia and China do have common needs in the development of a new generation of conventional submarines.
Russia and China have complementary submarine technologies, each with their own strengths, and have a foundation for cooperation
As a veteran submarine powerhouse, Russia still has extremely strong technical reserves in the technology fields of low noise level control submarines, submarine structural design and material technology, submarine weapon systems, etc., which are exactly what China's conventional submarines lack; and after so many years of development, China's submarine industry also has its own technical characteristics: China has expertise in the fields of AIP power system technology, submarine ship and ship electrical and information technology, and hydroacoustic system technology. If China and Russia can achieve cooperation, they can indeed achieve technical complementarity and meet the basic conditions for cooperation.
The two countries cooperated to develop main combat equipment like never before, which may be a major breakthrough
In recent years, China-Russia comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership has been deepening and developing. The two countries have many projects in the joint development of large-scale technical equipment, such as China-Russia joint development of large aircraft CR929 project, China-Russia joint development of civilian heavy helicopter project, etc., and this cooperation momentum has continued to expand to the military field. Not long ago, Russia publicly revealed that it is helping China develop and build a strategic anti-missile radar detection and early warning system, which shows that China and Russia have developed to a very in-depth level in the military field. Even a "strategic" weapon and equipment system like the strategic anti-missile system can be jointly developed, so there is indeed no impossible to jointly develop conventional submarines. If the joint development of conventional submarines by China and Russia come true, it may achieve a "zero breakthrough" in the joint development of large-scale main combat weapons and equipment between the two countries, and is an "example of cooperation" to deepen the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries.
China Navy's conventional power AIP submarine
cooperation form has suspense
However, is this a foregone conclusion that the two countries jointly develop a conventional submarine project? This may not be true.
First of all, the Russian spokesperson just said that "China and Russia cooperated on jointly designing a new generation of conventional submarines" and admitted that "it is too early to talk about the completion time". From this point of view, China and Russia jointly develop a new generation of conventional submarines, which is still in the early stage of "consultation and exchange". The two sides expressed their intention to cooperate, but whether to continue to advance and how to specifically promote and cooperate is still unknown. Whether this cooperation project can be finalized and whether China and Russia can work together to develop a world-leading conventional submarine is completely "unknown".
At the same time, even if China and Russia decide to jointly develop a new generation of conventional submarines, there is still a lot of suspense in the form of cooperation. In fact, as early as 2012, Russia reported that China and Russia planned to cooperate on the "Lada" class conventional submarine project. At that time, some military experts speculated that Russia hoped to use China's advantageous technologies in the field of high-power closed diesel engine AIP power plant technology to restart the "Lada" class submarine project.
Will Russia and China cooperate on the new generation of conventional submarines in the future? Will the "Lada" class platform be used to continue to "leverage the remaining energy", or will it really start a new generation of conventional submarines with China and jointly develop a new generation of conventional submarines? It can be said that it is still "full of suspense".
