MACD is called the exponential smooth similarity and similar average. It is developed from the double-exponential moving average . The slow exponential moving average is subtracted from the fast exponential moving average (EMA). The meaning of MACD is basically the same as the double moving average, but it is more convenient to read.
When MACD turns from negative to positive, it is a buying signal. When MACD turns from positive to negative, it is a selling signal. When MACD changes at a large angle, the gap between the fast moving average and the slow moving average is widened very quickly, representing a major market trend change.
is similar to most technical indicators, using golden cross represents a buy signal, and a dead cross represents a sell signal. As shown in Figure (I), the yellow line DEA crossing the white line DEA on the white line DIFF is a golden cross, and the cylinder MACD turns from green to red, indicating that it starts from short positions to long positions; otherwise, it is a dead cross, and the cylinder MACD turns from red to green, indicating that it starts from long positions to short positions. Because MACD has a lag, it is difficult to be the lowest or highest after buying or selling, so it is only defined as a medium-term trend trading indicator.
In theory, buy MACD golden fork and sell for dead fork! But if it is implemented in actual combat, it is not that simple. Golden Cross alone cannot guide actual combat, because many times once the Golden Cross is determined, the stock price has risen sharply. In rising markets, the golden cross is often confirmed by continuous big suns or daily limits. When adjusting the market, the golden cross is often no longer profitable. In bear markets, the golden cross is often the limit of rebound.
In actual combat, whether it is the rising market, the adjustment market or the bear market, it was unconfirmed at that moment. The rising market can evolve into an adjustment market at any time, and the adjustment market can also evolve into a bear market at any time, and the bear market may also rebound from that moment at any time. Before a period of market conditions can be fully emerged, no one knows where the stock price will run.
For retail investors, without a golden cross, there is a greater risk. Once the golden cross, they face the embarrassment of not being able to intervene. There is always a feeling that the main force always wants to get rid of you, and when the stock is about to rise, there is often no chance to buy. Once you give a chance to buy, you will immediately face adjustments and get trapped.
As shown in the picture above, do you dare to intervene when looking at the golden cross? The most practical value of the water in the picture is the C point C point, but it does not give retail investors any chance to buy.
As shown in the picture: Even if you dare to buy at the golden cross, the main force will use the callback to clean you. The DE two-point water golden cross is completely unrestricted, and it completely loses its value. Not only does it have no profit to buy, it will be possible to get trapped in an instant.
If you have practical experience, you will find that at the position where the stock price attacks 0-day moving average , the probability of MACD's energy exhaustion is extremely high. At this time, it is often the critical point of MACD, and the red and white double lines of MACD come from the bottom attack 0 axis. There are two situations when the stock price attacks the 60-day moving average. The first type of 20-day moving average has not yet turned up, and the energy exhaustion at this time is an absolute selling signal; the second type of 20-day moving average has turned up, so you can wait and see.
So how to wait and see? In the short market, the stock price attacks the 60-day moving average, the 20-day moving average has turned upward, and the MACD energy has been exhausted. In this case, there are two situations: the first is benign and increase in volume, so you can observe the stock. The second is infinite or non-benign and increase in volume, so you will still sell here. Because the 60-day moving average does represent a certain kind of strong pressure.
As shown in the figure above: Point A is the first underwater golden cross attack of the 60 moving average (green). At this time, the 20 moving average (purple) is strongly downward, and the energy is exhausted and you need to sell it directly. When the energy of point B is exhausted, the 20-day moving average has turned upward and you can wait and see. There is no significant increase in volume at this time, but the stock price has been closing positive continuously and successfully breaking through the pressure of the 60-day moving average. Then wait for the future selling opportunity.
C point is that the long-headed energy is exhausted and could have been maintained, but after the energy is exhausted, there is an absolute large volume of large Yin, so you need to escape quickly. Point D and Point A are very similar, so they should be sold. Point E is also exhausted at this time. Although the 20-day moving average is down, the golden cross before Point E is a bottom divergence golden cross. At this time, the trading volume trend is beautiful. It depends on whether the volume can be increased continuously in the subsequent trading days. If not, you should sell it quickly.If possible, continue to hold!
As shown in the figure above, point A is the energy exhaustion of bulls. Generally, top divergence from and invisible top divergence will appear later. This stock has a clear top divergence from point B and should be sold quickly. In actual combat, as long as there is no large volume and long negative after the long energy is exhausted, you can probably wait until the invisible top divergence, that is, between AB, the stock price hits a new high and the red pillar does not hit a new high. In actual combat,
often cannot wait for the time to confirm the top divergence, which means that it cannot be sold perfectly at point B. Many stocks have begun to make significant adjustments without a complete top divergence.
C point stock price attacks the 60-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average also turns upward. Although the trading volume on the day of attacking the 60-day moving average shrinks compared with the previous trading day, the overall volume is still significantly increased. It is necessary to distinguish the effectiveness of the daily increase in volume and determine the situation of the main funds. If it is an invalid increase in volume, it must be sold.
As shown in the figure above, point A is the position where the long energy is exhausted, and there is no obvious large-scale negative line afterwards. Then when the MACD high cross is reached B, you should sell it. Point C is a typical energy exhaustion, and the position where the 20-day moving average is strongly downward, and should be sold. The energy of point D is exhausted, the 20-day moving average is turning upward, and the 60-day moving average does not have a strong downward pressure. Since the golden cross before MACD is a bottom divergence golden cross, it is still worth watching at this time.
In actual combat, because the D point attacks the 60-day moving average without success, it can actually be sold. If the concept cannot be supported or broken through at a critical position, and there is no strong reason to reserve it, going out and watching first is the correct operation method. As for the market between D E, it is completely a long market operation.
Energy exhaustion, whether it is a long or a short market, it is a signal that the stock price will be adjusted. However, there is a strong selling signal under the short market, which is a better selling operation basis in the short market. Recently, many stocks have attacked the 60-day moving average and MACD red and white lines and are about to attack the 0 axis. Generally, energy exhaustion in the bear market will occur. We need to pay close attention to the length of the red column of MACD to find the possibility of energy exhaustion, pay attention to the upward turning of the 20-day moving average, and stocks with large volumes need to determine the effectiveness of large volume! 5 divergence analysis of
MACD indicator:
1. Divergence between the mountains: The top in the middle of is called "mountain", two sub-high points on the left and right, and a "mountain" is "interleaved" between. The premise is that the "half-mountainside" on the left is almost at a horizontal position and the "half-mountainside" on the right. The MACD red column corresponding to the left and the green column corresponding to the right is called "Distance between the mountains".
2. Single positive divergence: uses a positive line to judge the divergence situation. First of all, what we see is that a positive line under the daily K-line should be the corresponding red bar, but under certain special circumstances, a green bar appears, which will also cause a single positive divergence. The use of single positive divergence requires certain conditions, as mentioned in the figure:
As shown in the figure above, the stock appeared on March 4, and the stock also meets the specific conditions we just mentioned. At the same time, you can also find that in this case, there will generally be an increase later.
3. Single negative divergence: uses single negative divergence. First of all, what we see is a negative line under the daily k, which should correspond to a green line post. If it appears under certain circumstances, a red line post appears, which also causes a single negative divergence. Single negative divergence also has its own practical conditions:
The fourth type is bottom divergence , and the fifth type is bottom divergence, so I won’t list it here. The essence of
MACD lies in: divergence from the general trend of breaking!
MACD itself is an indicator derived from the moving average. Like the moving average, it has a certain lag. Usually, people buy and sell through MACD golden fork and dead fork, but they cannot hit it all at once, because it is due to its lag and singularity! In fact, the essence of MACD lies in judging the big top and the big bottom through the top divergence and bottom divergence, and it is extremely accurate, especially for trend bands, which is simple and effective.
Divergence
Divergence is a comparison of the attack strength of the two similar trends in the first and last stages, observing the change in momentum, and finding a judgment on whether the market continues or turns!
1. Divergence of the fast and slow line position.
stock price hits a low, the MACD indicator line does not hit a low or even gradually rises, which is the bottom divergence; otherwise, it is the top divergence.
stock price is new low, but the fast and slow line of MACD has no new low. This inconsistent phenomenon is called the bottom divergence
2, the divergence of the length of the red and green columns.
stock price hits a low, but the length of the green column has gradually shortened, which is the bottom divergence; otherwise, it is the top divergence.
stock price is new low, but MACD's green column has no new low. This inconsistent phenomenon is called bottom divergence
3. The red and green column area is the most accurate. Since
is a comparison of the two trends, it will naturally transition to the comparison of red and green columns (representing the momentum of buying and selling)! The ratio of the area of the red and green columns to the zero-axis siege is the most accurate method of analysis and judgment! The area of the red column in the box behind
is significantly larger than that in the box before, indicating that the upward momentum is getting stronger and stronger, without attenuation, and there is naturally a new high!
4. Importance ranking: position first, red and green columns are second.
As long as the MACD indicator trend is normal, there is no need to panic about the short-term divergence of the red and green columns. In the future, the stock price will adapt to the MACD sudden change, and the red and green columns will follow and magnify, which is likely to be a second buying point. The stock price fluctuated slowly and climbed, and the MACD indicator maintained fluctuation, without a dead cross; the subsequent red column magnified again, and the stock price accelerated upward again!
meaning: the bottom divergence appears, which means that the bottom is close, and you can enter the market to buy the bottom in batches! The top divergence is the opposite.
operation: When the first wave of selling, you cannot blindly buy at the bottom; you must wait for the bottom divergence to enter the market! The same is true for top divergence.
MACD golden cross again, the stock price scored twice, and after the full adjustment, a golden cross appeared in the MACD below the zero axis, which is the initial buying point; after a wave of pulling up and then retracing, a golden cross will be recorded above or near the zero axis of the MACD, and you can follow up again!
Key points: The secondary golden cross must be above the zero axis or very close to the zero axis! The two yellow and white lines of MACD stand on the zero axis and fall back without breaking the zero axis, or near the zero axis, golden cross again, It is a buying point for accelerating the big market! After the first golden cross, the stock price rebounded slightly, and MACD stood on the zero axis; then the stock price fell back, and MACD also fell dead fork, but did not fall below the zero axis; then the stock price stabilized, MACD was the second golden cross above the zero axis, and the stock price also opened up space again!
MACD was the second golden cross near the zero axis, which means that the adjustment was over, and it is likely to go out of the main upward wave!
Meaning: the second golden cross near the zero axis means that the adjustment is at the end The sound is about to rise quickly; the secondary golden fork above the zero axis means that the wash-up is over, and there is a high possibility that another main upward wave will occur!
operation: When you first golden fork, you will enter a light position a little to prevent you from directly opening the main upward wave and missing the market; the second golden fork near or above the zero axis is a good position increase point, and the certainty is higher!
'MACD bottom divergence' formula
A1:=SLOPE(MA(C,60),5); {6 0-day moving average: 5-day slope}
A2:=SLOPE(MACD.DEA,5);{MACD yellow line: 5-day slope}
B1:=BARSLAST(CROSS(A2,0));{The last time the MACD yellow line turns upwards to the present cycle number}
B2:=BARSLAST(CROSS(0,A2));{The last time the MACD yellow line turns downwards to the present cycle number}
B3:=B2+REF(B1,B2);{The number of cycles from the last second MACD yellow line turning up to the present}
B4:=B3+REF(B2,B3);{The number of cycles from the last second MACD yellow line turning down to the present}
B5:=B4+REF(B1,B4);{The number of cycles from the last third MACD yellow line turning up to the present}
B6:=B5+RE F(B2,B5);{The number of cycles from the last third MACD yellow line turning down to the present}
C1:=REF(MACD.DEA,B1);{DEA value when the last second MACD yellow line turning upward}
C3:=REF(MACD.DEA,B3);{DEA value when the last second MACD yellow line turning upward}
C5:=REF(MACD.DEA,B5);{The value when the last second MACD yellow line turning upward}
C5:=REF(MACD.DEA,B5);{The value when the last second MACD yellow line turning upward}
C5:=REF(MACD.DEA,B5);{ The DEA value when the third MACD yellow line turns upward}
D1:=REF(C,B1);{The closing price when the last MACD yellow line turns upward}
D3:=REF(C,B3);{The closing price when the last MACD yellow line turns upward}
D5:=REF(C,B5);{The closing price when the last MACD yellow line turns upward}
D6:=LL V(C,B2);{The last 1 MACD yellow line turns down to the lowest closing price now}
D7:=LLV(C,B6);{The last 3 MACD yellow line turns down to the lowest closing price now}
E1:=A1
E2:=MACD.MACD0;{The current MACD is a red column, and the white line is higher than the yellow line}
E3:=B1
E4:=C1C3 AND C3C5;{The low point of the MACD yellow line increases wave by wave}
E5:=D1
E6:=D6=D7;{The lowest closing price of the MACD yellow line turns down to the present is the same}
E1 AND E2 AND E3 AND E4 AND E5 AND E6;{list stock selection conditions};
The formula code is copied and caused some format errors. If it cannot be imported successfully, you can ask me to get the source code!
If you want to know more about the current operation skills and formula codes in the A-share stage, or if you have any doubts, you can follow the official account Yuesheng Guide (yslc688). More future market operations and stock technical analysis methods are waiting for you to learn, and there will be a steady stream of dry goods!
The investment philosophy of top traders
1. Short-term rise and fall are unpredictable.
Can short-term rise and fall be predicted? I do not deny that there are indeed investors with high accuracy in short-term predictions. However, it is absolutely impossible to predict accurately all the time. Why?
The factors affecting the rise and fall of the stock market are uncertain, including international situation, economic cycle, fiscal policy, monetary policy, macroeconomic, military, investor sentiment, etc. Can these comprehensive factors be predicted in the short term? Not. Especially the uncertainty of investor emotions, no one can accurately predict the correctness.
So, for short-term trading, no one can predict 100% accurately. Even if the prediction is extremely accurate, it is only once or twice. It is impossible to be accurate every time. This is something that cannot happen.
2. Only buying points and no selling points are a failed investment.
The situation that many investors in the stock market is similar. What are the similarities? The most obvious thing is: you know how to buy, but don’t know how to sell. This should be a "common problem" for ordinary investors.
After paying attention to the stocks of listed companies for a period of time, they invested. In the later stage, whether the stocks rose or fell, there was no concept of time or space, and I don’t know where to sell the stocks. There are usually several situations:
1. The stock price has risen and I don’t know how to sell it. It keeps rising and rising until it finally falls. When it comes to the initial price, I will choose to sell it;
2. The stock price has fallen, without a stop loss point, and it falls again and again, until it is deeply "trapped", and finally can’t stand it at some time in the future, so I choose to “cut the liquor”.
Then, in this case, an investment with only buying points but no selling points is a failed investment. There is a saying in the stock market that "strategy is greater than trend", that is, with the execution of strategies, there are buying points and selling points, and it can make better profits in the stock market and avoid risks.
3. There are buying points and selling points, and there will be no short positions, and the risk is still high.
Whether it is the US stock market, my country's Hong Kong stock market, or the A-share market, it is difficult to truly make a profit without knowing how to short positions. Although the US stock market shows a "ten-year bull market", the sample listed companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are only the dozens of listed companies with the best quality in the US stock market and cannot represent all US stocks. Moreover, when the bear market comes, the US stock market also shows a "fast decline".
Our first point is about the unpredictability of short-term trading. Since it is unpredictable and always active in this market, it is difficult to achieve large returns even if there are strategic trading with buying points and selling points. The correct way to do it is to follow the trend and short positions when it is time to short positions, especially when trend risks and financial crisis-like risks.
4. Short position is not about losing opportunities, but waiting for opportunities.
Investors enter the stock market with the same goal of "profit". There is no way to do it, it is "fighting naked with nothing", which is a very disadvantageous. Therefore, we must learn to plan and execute strategies. What about short positions? It seems that nothing is done. In fact, when the financial crisis and the market fluctuates, keeping it moving and shorting is victory.
summary: I personally agree that "short positions are a state of mind. Stock investors who do not have short positions cannot become top traders." Of course, even if professional investors do not know how to short positions, they cannot become top traders. Only by following the trend can you become a great person.
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute operational advice. If you operate by yourself, pay attention to position control and risk at your own risk.)
Statement: This content is provided by Yuesheng Strategy and does not mean that the Investment Express recognizes its investment views.
