As one of the earliest private enterprises in China, Skyworth Group Co., Ltd. (00751.HK, hereinafter referred to as Skyworth Group ) has continuously expanded its emerging businesses for more than 30 years, and is well-known nationwide for its well-known products such as Skyworth Color TV and Skyworth Refrigerator . Since the end of 2021, Skyworth Group and its subsidiary Skyworth Digital have increased by more than 2 times. What exactly drives the stock price to soar? Will it still have investment value in the future? Worth in-depth exploration and research.
Company Profile
Skyworth Group was founded in Hong Kong in 1988 and has grown through its color TV business. However, with the decline of the home appliances in 2008, the domestic color TV market gradually became saturated. Skyworth Group's development hit the ceiling, and its revenue growth rate was once below 10% from 2014 to 2020.
This state has changed in 2021. With the promotion of the "home economy", Skyworth Group's revenue growth rate in 2021 reached 27.02%, achieving revenue of 50.928 billion yuan. So is Skyworth Group’s stock price increase only the performance improvement?
The fact is obviously not that simple. First of all, we must realize that there are some differences in value investment in A-share market , Hong Kong stock market and other stock markets in the world. Taking the A-share market as an example, when investors investing in A-share , it is more important to increase the stock price, and valuation improvement is the most important. When most investors determine that a stock's market performance exceeds expectations, investors will flock to increase their holdings, causing the stock price to rise.
Relatively speaking, Hong Kong stocks are different. Investors not only focus on the gains overflowed by the stock price when trading in Hong Kong stocks, but also an important factor in the company's dividends and dividends. The main reason is that the interest rate of banks in the Hong Kong market is very low. When people have surplus funds, preservation of value has become another investment tendency for investors.
When a company's dividend dividend rate reaches a certain level, investors buying this stock is equivalent to having a high interest rate deposit in disguise. When the company can operate for a long time and the dividend dividend payout is relatively stable, investors are equivalent to having a long-term deposit interest. This investment method is also very common in the American Pension Fund Association. In early October 2021, Skyworth Group rose all the way to the high of HK$6.35 on November 15, 2021, with an increase of 217.5%. After a five-month pullback, we ushered in another wave of big rise in April 2022, and then we ushered in a three-month pullback in August.
Further dig into these time points, we can find that since November 2021, Skyworth Group has continuously carried out share repurchase operations after releasing its third-quarter performance report, which has continued until February 2022. In March 2022, Skyworth Group released the company's dividend and dividend plan. This is the first interest payment after three years. The dividend payment per share reaches HK$0.23. According to the closing price of on June 13 dividend date on June 13 2022, the dividend and dividend payment ratio reaches 6.37%. According to the closing price of 1.94 on October 4, 2021, the dividend and dividend payment ratio reaches 11.85%. This is the result of the market judging that the group will pay dividends, so the stock price rose due to the signal of stock repurchase between October and November.
In addition, after two months of stock repurchase, the company paid dividends again in August 2022, which led to the rise of stocks. From this point of view, the high dividend dividend rate has attracted a large number of investors, which is the core reason for the changes in Skyworth Group's stock price. Whether Skyworth Group is able to distribute dividends in the future is an important factor in the company's stock price changes, and whether the company can operate continuously for a long time also determines the investment intention of value-preserving investors. Specifically, we need to further analyze through Skyworth Group's business composition.
Business introduction
The company is currently mainly engaged in five business segments, namely multimedia, intelligent system technology, smart home appliances, new energy and modern services. Overall, the company's multimedia business accounts for the majority of the group's revenue, and 's revenue share once remained above 50% before 2021.
(I) Multimedia
Skyworth Group's multimedia business mainly includes smart TV system products and Coolcai system Internet value-added services.
From the perspective of smart TV system products, the group has adopted new technologies to empower traditional home appliances as a breakthrough point, and in 2021 it successively launched 8K OLED TV W92 and the world's first straight OLED TV W82.
However, this still cannot pull back the decline in the domestic market's TV business. Although the group's turnover in the mainland Chinese market increased in 2021, reaching 12.949 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year, sales volume decreased by 15.9% year-on-year. Judging from the 2022 semi-annual report data, the revenue of the domestic TV business reached 4.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%; at the same time, domestic TV sales also fell by 14.3%, reaching only 2.469 million units, showing a trend of double decline in revenue and sales.
Relatively speaking, the overseas TV market performed well in 2021, with both sales and sales of TV system products. However, the sales situation in the first half of 2022 was not optimistic. The company's sales volume of TV business in overseas markets was almost the same as in the first half of 2021, with revenue of only 3.919 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%.
Overall, there is still room for improvement in the overseas TV market, but the domestic market is showing signs of fatigue. In the first half of 2022, Skyworth Group's TV business revenue was only 8.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24%. It is more difficult for the Group to achieve a breakthrough in the TV market in the future, and its ability to generate revenue for enterprises is also weakening.
From the perspective of the Internet value-added services of Cookai System , in 2021, the company covered more than 118 million smart terminals in the Chinese market, with revenue reaching 1.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. However, although the number of smart terminal users exceeds 100 million, there are relatively few users who actually use the corresponding services of Coocai System, and consumers prefer to directly use the software services in the system.
Judging from the revenue in the first half of 2022, the operating income of this sector reached 664 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, maintaining a sustained growth trend. Judging from the current user habits, it is difficult to significantly increase the value of users' Internet content, but the ability to maintain revenue growth is very strong.
(II) Intelligent System Technology
This section is mainly responsible for Skyworth Digital Co., Ltd. (000810.SZ, hereinafter referred to as Skyworth Digital), and is currently the only listed company except Skyworth Group. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2014.
From Skyworth Digital's business category, smart system technology is mainly divided into four major business segments, namely smart terminals, broadband connections, professional displays and operation services. Among them, the smart terminal business is the main source of the company's revenue, and the revenue share has remained above 50% for a long time. However, in recent years, the proportion of revenue has continued to decline, and the proportion of other businesses has continued to rise.
From the perspective of smart terminal business, the main products include digital smart set-top boxes, integrated terminal and VR solutions and terminals. The specific functions and applications are as shown in the figure below: The core product of
smart terminal business is digital smart set-top box. Since 2018, the company's smart set-top box shipments have ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. However, despite this, from the perspective of the entire industry, the global set-top box shipments almost peaked in 2018, and the development of the entire industry slowed down and gradually transformed into a stock market. According to Global Market Insights data, the global set-top box market size will reach US$15 billion in 2021, and is expected to reach US$20 billion in 2028, with a CAGR of only 4.2%.
From the perspective of the domestic market, according to Glen Research data, the market penetration rate of my country's smart set-top box has reached 90% in 2021. can only further increase the market scale through technological substitution in the future, and the industry's development speed has slowed down significantly.
From the perspective of overseas markets, Southeast Asia, Africa and other markets are currently mainly concentrated in 1080P set-top boxes, European markets focus on 2K set-top boxes, and 4K set-top boxes have been widely used in Chinese and American markets. Since HD is a gradual process, the late-development market will have more opportunities than the mature market.
Overall, there is still a lot of room for appreciation in the overseas market, but the development of the domestic market can only rely on technological iteration. Therefore, Skyworth Digital has increased its investment in overseas markets. has generated stable revenue with its industry leading position, providing a foundation for the long-term development of the enterprise. Another core product of
smart terminal is VR solution and terminal . Currently, the company has achieved a completely independent VR industry chain from independent research and development to self-production and self-service channel sales, self-developed 3DoF, VR rendering and optical processing algorithms, etc.
From the perspective of product, Skyworth takes the lead in laying out Pancake short-focus optical technology. The splitter S6 Pro was launched in December 2020. Currently, Skyworth VR splitter has been customized to customers in the United States, India and other places. In addition, Skyworth Digital released the world's first consumer-grade 6DoF Pancake ultra-short-focus VR all-in-one machine on July 25 this year, which is 50% less than the same standard machine on the market and has a 3/4th volume reduction. It has a high resolution of 5K binoculars, which can effectively improve the user experience.
From the perspective of content, the company's products cover multiple downstream fields, including K12 education, vocational education, medical care, cultural tourism, factories, etc. The content provides value-added services to VR hardware equipment, greatly enhancing the competitiveness of VR equipment.
However, the global VR market is currently in its early stages of development. The leading brands are committed to developing the market, investing heavily in R&D and marketing, and hardware revenue is growing rapidly while profits are difficult to improve. Currently, the company's VR equipment is also in a stage of low profits and cannot bring explosive boost to the company in a short period of time.
Another core section of Skyworth Digital is broadband connection devices. In 2021, the company's broadband equipment shipments reached 13.5488 million units, an increase of 95.66% year-on-year, and achieved operating income of 1.706 billion yuan, an increase of 89.97% year-on-year. is the fastest-growing business in the group's revenue.
In March 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for Collaborative Development of "Dual Gigabit" Networks", striving to provide fixed and mobile network gigabit access capabilities to individual users. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of March 2022, the total number of fixed Internet broadband access users of the three basic telecommunications companies reached 551 million, while the number of users of gigabit and above broadband access was 45.96 million, and the penetration rate of is only 8.3% .
In April 2022, the State Council issued the " "14th Five-Year Plan" Digital Economy Development Plan ", proposing that by 2025, the number of gigabit broadband users will increase to 60 million, with the CAGR of 2022-2025 will be 9.29%. From this point of view, domestic gigabit broadband connection equipment still has a lot of room for development.
From the perspective of overseas markets, the development speed of gigabit broadband connections is not as fast as that of the Chinese market, and the development space is broader. In 2021, the UK Communications Authority disclosed that only 21% of the UK's locations have fiber to households. Although the gigabit market in the United States started early, the provision of gigabit broadband services mainly covers large cities. According to Parks Associates, by 2023, the U.S. gigabit users are expected to reach 13 million, accounting for only 4% of the U.S. population.
021 Skyworth Digital won the bid for all bids for the "China Mobile's 2022-2023 Smart Home Gateway Product Centralized Procurement (First Batch)" project, and its market share is leading in the domestic radio and television market. In addition, the company has used existing customers of the set-top box business to prioritize market intervention and breakthroughs in access network products. In 2021, it has implemented projects in Southeast Asia, India, and , Mexico, and other regions and formed a continuous growth in order shipment. At present, the company has also laid out the wifi6 market, which not only includes the improvement of speed and range, but also involves the comprehensive improvement of network intelligence, analysis and power efficiency, laying the foundation for the long-term development of the company in the future.
Overall, broadband connection equipment is the business point that the group is expected to focus on in recent years. In the future, broadband connection equipment will further increase in volume and expand demand, and revenue and profits will further accelerate growth.
Skyworth Digital's professional display section mainly focuses on the production of on-board display screens, small and medium-sized mobile phone displays, and LED device displays. With the current trend of large-screen + multi-screen in smart cars, the demand for automotive display screens is gradually expanding, and the value of in-vehicle displays is gradually increasing. Since May 2020, the company has successively won the bid for the FAW-Volkswagen front-mounted display, Chery Jetour display and Geely Automobile display projects.
Overall, professional display business is a strong growth point for future enterprise development. With the Group's 2023 Skyworth Wuhan Mini-LED Display Technology Industrial Park will be completed and put into production in the second quarter of 2023, 's technological leadership is expected to help the company's display business usher in an explosion.
However, due to the repeated epidemic and chip shortage, the automotive raw materials and supply chains were sluggish. In the first half of 2022, the company's professional display business revenue was only 891 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%. Although the third and fourth quarters are the peak season for order delivery, it is still difficult to pull back the decline of this business. is expected to decline to a certain extent in 2022.
In addition, the company's operating service business revenue also declined, with only 104 million yuan in the first half of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 13.78%. Considering that this business is the company's after-sales value-added service, the future growth is not obvious, and it is expected that the business's revenue will still show a downward trend in 2022.
It is worth mentioning that at the end of 2021, Skyworth Digital's stock price also showed a continuous growth trend, soaring from the closing price of 6.92 yuan on October 28, 2021 to 25.85 yuan on August 1, 2022, an increase of as high as 273.5%. However, the stock has continued to fall in the past month, with the latest closing price of only 18.20 yuan, a drop of 29.6%. What is the change in the stock price?
First of all, considering that Skyworth Digital is a company in the A-share market, investors are more concerned about the excellent performance or future development potential achieved by the company at a certain stage, and then obtain profits through stock price fluctuations.
Specifically, in 2021, in addition to the restricted development of technical services, Skyworth Digital's revenue has increased significantly, especially the broadband connection business, with revenue almost doubled; core business smart terminals also had a revenue growth of 26.12%, which greatly exceeded market expectations, and the company delivered a satisfactory answer at the performance level.
From the perspective of future development potential, with the rapid development of VR, broadband connections and in-vehicle displays, the company is expected to gain industry development dividends, and there is a lot of room for growth in the future, so it has attracted a lot of capital investment to promote the rise of stock prices.
However, judging from Skyworth Digital's 2022 semi-annual report, the company's performance did not meet market expectations. Although the revenue of smart terminal business increased by 69.46%, this is because it integrates the broadband connection business with the fastest growth rate of revenue, and the overall increase is still not up to expectations; in addition, the revenue of several other businesses has declined to a certain extent, especially the professional display sector, with a revenue drop of as much as 33.3%, which led to a sharp decline in stock market investors' confidence in the company. Shareholders began to reduce their holdings one after another, and the stock price immediately began to fall, gradually entering the stage of value return.
(III) Smart appliances
Smart appliances business includes smart air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances and tablets. More than 85% of the revenue comes from refrigerators and washing machines. However, the refrigerator and washing industry has entered a relatively stable stage of development, and the growth rate of market size has gradually slowed down.
From the perspective of the refrigerator and washing market, Skyworth Electric Appliances started relatively late than old-fashioned companies such as Haier and Midea. When the sales volume of refrigerators and washing machine products such as Midea and Haier reached tens of millions, Skyworth Electric Appliances sold only 1.5659 million refrigerators and 1.7231 million washing machines in 2021.
However, the company's better technical strength and quality control capabilities have been recognized by many home appliance brands, such as Yunmi , Xiaomi , etc. Therefore, the company's ODM business is showing a continuous growth trend. In 2021, the company's ODM business revenue accounted for 58%, gradually becoming the company's core business for revenue generation.
However, compared with different sales models, the ODM model has the lowest gross profit margin, with a gross profit margin of only 11.12% in 2021, which also leads to the average gross profit margin of Skyworth Electric's entire company's business being only 18.41%, which is 7% lower than the average gross profit margin of the companies in the same industry during the same period.
Overall, there is little room for future growth for refrigerators and washing machines. With the company's ODM business growing, the revenue of this business segment has tended to be stable. There is no major risk and is an important sector for the group to stabilize its revenue.
Skyworth Electrical also has a main business of tablet computers. Driven by the "home economy", tablet computer revenue continued to rise from 2019 to 2021. However, with the relaxation of epidemic policies, demand for tablets is also gradually declining. Global tablet shipments in 2021 were 183 million units, almost the same as in 2020. At the same time, Skyworth Group currently has a low brand influence in tablet computers and lacks future development potential. Overall, 's tablet business also belongs to the group's stable revenue generation sector.
(IV) New energy
Skyworth Group entered the new energy market through photovoltaic and achieved remarkable achievements, becoming one of the leaders in the installation of distributed photovoltaic power stations. In 2021, the company's new energy business revenue reached 4.101 billion yuan, an increase of 3843.3% year-on-year. At the same time, the 2022 semi-annual report shows that the company's new energy business revenue in the first half of 2022 was 4.206 billion yuan, an increase of 407.4% year-on-year. The business development is very fast. It is the highlight of the development that the group is expected to make breakthroughs in recent years and is also the focus of rapid growth in corporate revenue.
(V) Modern services and other
Modern services and other sectors include home appliance maintenance and repair, large logistics services, foreign trade , construction and development, financial leasing, park property management and other businesses, and is the group's business dedicated to after-sales service. In 2021, the revenue of this business was 3.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.5%, making it the main force in the group's development and exploration of new businesses.
Overall, Skyworth Group has shown a business development trend of stable revenue growth in recent years and has explosive potential, which fully reflects Skyworth Group's strong resilience, and can continuously and flexibly adjust its company's business, tap emerging high-potential areas, and promote corporate transformation while developing stably.
Judging from the group's 2022 semi-annual report, against the backdrop of repeated epidemics, the group's operating income still showed a continuous growth trend, reaching 24.284 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%; but the net profit attributable to shareholders only reached 339 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.11%. As net profit declined, the group still paid 2022 semi-annual dividends to shareholders, showing the group's confidence in future development. With the continuous recovery of the economy, the group will still have the ability to issue dividends in the future. On this basis, Skyworth Group's stock price is expected to usher in growth.
Value
With the successive declaration and listing of Skyworth Electric Appliances and Cookai Technology in the past two years, Skyworth Group is expected to become a group with 4 listed companies in the future, which is conducive to the group's valuation repair. Since Skyworth Group designed the business is relatively complex, this article will value each business separately.
(I) Multimedia
The main core of multimedia is the color TV business, which has been owned by the stock market since 2015. The operating income in the first half of 2022 was only 10.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.56%. Considering that consumption power gradually returns in the second half of this year, this article expects that multimedia operating income in 2022 will be almost the same as in 2021, reaching 28 billion yuan.
This article uses Sichuan Changhong, the leader of color TV, for comparison. The two have similar market share, both belong to major traditional home appliance manufacturers, and both involve set-top boxes, refrigerators, washing machines and other businesses, with a similar profit model.
is also affected by the epidemic. In the first half of 2022, Changhong Group's revenue in the TV business was only 439.48, a year-on-year decrease of 10.71%. This article expects that Sichuan Changhong's operating income in the TV business in 2022 will be almost the same as in 2021, reaching 100 billion yuan. Compared with the closing price of Sichuan Changhong on September 15, 2022, the total market value of Sichuan Changhong is 12.56 billion yuan and the PS is 0.125.
Considering that Skyworth Group accounts for a high proportion of its foreign market, the gross profit margin of its products is slightly higher than that of Sichuan Changhong, this article adjusts Skyworth Group's PS to 1.2 times that of Sichuan Changhong, which is 0.15, then the reasonable valuation of Skyworth Group's multimedia business is 4.22 billion yuan.
(II) Intelligent system technology
From the current business development of Skyworth Digital, the company will still show a rapid development trend in the future. Its operating income in the first half of 2022 reached 6.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, which is the highest in recent years. Considering that the epidemic situation in the first half of 2022 is still showing such good performance, this article expects Skyworth Digital to increase its operating income in 2022 by 30% year-on-year to 14.1 billion yuan. At the same time, Skyworth Digital also had strong revenue-generating capabilities in the first half of 2022, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 491 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.89%, which is also the fastest growth stage in recent years. Therefore, this article predicts Skyworth Digital's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2022 can achieve a year-on-year increase of 80% to 760 million yuan.
This article revaluates Skyworth Digital by selecting several other comparable companies in the industry and uses the price-to-earnings ratio method to value. Starting from the set-top box business, this article selects Shenzhou Digital ; starting from the VR business, this article selects Goertek ; starting from the on-board display, this article selects BOE Jingdian and Shen Tianma ; starting from the broadband connection, this article selects Tianyi Shares. In summary, this article selects the average PE of 18.33 in 2022, and predicts that Skyworth Digital's stock price in 2022 will be 12.1 yuan, with a market value of 13.93 billion yuan, and is still in the stage of overvalued.
In 2021, Skyworth Group's revenue in the intelligent system technology business was 10.911 billion yuan, while Skyworth Digital's revenue was 10.847 billion yuan. There is a part of the gap, mainly due to related transactions between the parent company and its subsidiaries. Due to the small error between the two, the impact can be ignored. Skyworth Group holds 56.85% of Skyworth Number shares, and it is concluded that Skyworth Group's valuation is 7.92 billion yuan.
(III) Smart appliances
Smart appliances sector also belongs to the group's stable revenue generation business. This article compares it with the leader in the refrigerator and washing industry Haier Smart Home . Although the revenue and market share of the two are largely different, the business content is very close, and the profit model is similar, and it has certain comparability.
Due to the impact of the epidemic, Skyworth Electric's operating income has been greatly affected. The operating income in the first half of 2022 reached 1.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%. It is expected that Skyworth Electric's operating income in 2022 will decline by 10% compared with 2021, reaching 3.602 billion yuan. Relatively speaking, Haier Smart Home has continued to grow in the context of market recession with its excellent brand effect and market influence. Its operating income in the first half of 2022 reached 121.858 billion yuan, an increase of 9.07% year-on-year. It is expected that Haier Smart Home will accelerate faster, and its operating income in 2022 will increase by 10% compared with 2021, reaching 250.32 billion yuan. Compared with the closing price on September 15, 2022, Haier Smart Home's total market value is 254 billion yuan and its PS is 1.01.
Considering that more than 50% of Skyworth Electric's revenue relies on ODM OEM services, the gross profit margin is low, only 42% of Haier Intelligent Control, and its market size and product influence are lower than Haier Intelligent Control. Therefore, this article adjusts the applicable PS of Skyworth Electric to 40% of Haier Intelligent Control, that is, 0.4 times, and the reasonable market value of Skyworth Electric is 1.44 billion yuan. At the same time, following the logic of Skyworth Digital, Skyworth Group owns 45.78% of Skyworth Electric Appliances, and concluded that Skyworth Group's valuation is 660 million yuan.
(IV) New energy
New energy sector belongs to the current group's high-growth business. In the first half of 2022, Skyworth Group's new energy business operating income reached 4.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 407.4%, mainly focusing on the photovoltaic sector installation and service businesses, among which the photovoltaic industry leaders are involved. Therefore, this article selects several major photovoltaic companies for comparison, namely Longi Green Energy, Jingao Technology, and Sungrow Power Supply .
Currently, Skyworth Group's photovoltaic business is still in the early stage of rapid growth, so this article expects that the operating income of this sector will increase by 150% year-on-year to 10.252 billion yuan in 2022. According to the current average price-to-sales ratio of the industry leaders, this article selects PS (TTM) average value of 4.08. Considering that compared with the industry leaders, Skyworth Group's current cost in new energy business is relatively high and its market share is small, so this article selects 0.5 times the average PS (TTM) value, that is, 2.04 times, and it is concluded that Skyworth Group's valuation is 20.92 billion yuan.
(V) Modern services and other
Due to the complex business included in this sector, it brought the company 3.932 billion yuan in revenue in 2021, with a great impact. Therefore, this article will take the PS value of this part to take the average PS of the three major businesses of multimedia, smart home appliances, and new energy, reaching 0.2. As the group reorganized and classified the sector, the business's operating income in the first half of 2022 was 714 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.2%. It is estimated that the business's revenue in 2022 will be 1.5 billion yuan, which is derived from the valuation of this part of Skyworth Group to be 300 million .
To sum up, the current sum of Skyworth Group's valuations is 42.2+79.2+6.6+209.2+3=34.02 billion yuan, which is converted to HK$38.06 billion, which is equivalent to the share price of HK$14.53 per share, which has a certain room for upward compared to the current situation.
Conclusion
From the perspective of overall development, emerging businesses such as VR and new energy are potential sectors that are expected to achieve the group's transformation, while traditional businesses such as multimedia and electrical appliances ensure stable growth in the company's revenue. The company will still be able to continue to issue dividends in the future, which is a good choice for value-preserving investors. Relatively speaking, judging from the current development status of Skyworth Digital, the stock is in a state of overvalued value and shows a trend of value regression within a certain period of time.
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Author: Li Zhuopeng
Category: Listed company
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