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Remember that on the eve of the Spring Festival in 2022, it was the peak period of winter storage. Many steel companies and steel traders chose to store in the steel futures market in winter, which can save money and buy better quality steel. The rebar futures price at that time stood firmly above 4,800 yuan. Compared with the past and present, I couldn't help but sigh in heaven and earth.
Of course, the price of steel has dropped from the high of 4,800 yuan to 3,600 yuan, which is a tragic thing for steel mills, but for most companies, this is a good thing, after all, the cost has been reduced in reality.
Although the main contract of rebar futures has fallen to around 3,600 yuan, the spot price has not fallen much. As mentioned earlier, the correlation between the two is very small. In the past week, only a few northern cities have fallen below the 4,000 yuan/ton mark, while the rest of the cities are above 4,000 yuan/ton. As of September 1, the average domestic rebar price was 4,120 yuan/ton, and the average hot-rolled coil price was 4,020 yuan/ton.
So for the prediction of steel price trends in September, remember not to focus on the steel futures market like in July and August to price or purchase. That is just the market's expectations for the steel price trend at the beginning of next year. Although the long-term bear market mentality is mainstream, it will more or less affect the current steel price, what we need to do now is to focus on the supply, demand and cost of the steel market. This is the correct idea.
Over the past week, the supply of steel market, especially construction steel, has increased significantly, with an increase of more than 10%. The market's specification shortage has improved, but the demand side has not increased significantly at the time of the peak season, which is reasonable to cause prices to fall.
Steel prices have fallen recently, and the cost of steel raw materials has been forced to adjust downward. The recent decline in coking coal futures prices far exceeded that of other black varieties and hit a new low in a year. It can be expected that the high price of coking coal spot 2,100 yuan/ton will be difficult to maintain for a long time.
Coking coal falls, and coke will inevitably follow the decline. Yesterday afternoon, some steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei Province, including , Handan, , Xingtai, , Xingtai, , some steel mills have asked coke manufacturers to reduce the ex-factory prices by 100-110 yuan/ton. The loss situation of steel mills in the previous stage can be alleviated to a certain extent.
Get up early in the morning and wrote so much, but in fact I was inspired by the price trend of steel prices last night. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, fragile mentality and lack of confidence, which are also one of the important reasons for the recent decline in steel prices. Some people say that there is no "golden September and silver October" in the Chinese steel market in 2022, maybe his judgment is correct.
