Beginning
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, the United States has joined forces with Western allies to launch multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia.
includes freezing Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves of about $300 billion, accounting for nearly half of Russia's total international reserves.
As the world's largest country, it deducted other countries' assets at will, which undoubtedly caused its credit to decline.
So many people will ask, my country holds more than 51 trillion US dollars in US bonds. What if the United States cheats and refuses to pay it back?
US bond
What is US bond?
can actually be understood by everyone. The United States "borrows online loans" all over the world. Although it does not have to repay the principal immediately, interest is paid every month.
As the world's largest economy, the United States has a total GDP in 2021, ranking first in the world.
Emm... It looks like the United States is very rich, right? In fact, it has always been developed by borrowing money.
Especially in the past two years of the epidemic, in order to stimulate economic development, both presidents have launched the economic stimulus plan many times, started the printing press, and released large-scale money.
By the end of 2021, the scale of US debt has exceeded the 30 trillion US dollars mark.
30 trillion, what does this mean?
Let’s put it this way, the interest rate owed by debt alone is more than 600 billion US dollars. Such a high amount is equivalent to the total GDP of the country in Switzerland in a year.
If the country owes money but does not pay it back, it is considered a "deadbeat", then the United States can be said to be the largest "deadbeat" in the world.
At present, the largest overseas holding country in U.S. bonds is Japan, with more than US$1.3 trillion, and China is the second largest holding country, with more than US$1 trillion.
You should know that China's GDP in 2020 is only 14.7 trillion US dollars, which means it is equivalent to 1/14 of China's wealth.
In addition, there are European countries such as the United Kingdom and Switzerland, as well as India, Singapore , South Korea and many other countries around the world hold certain U.S. debts.
Reasons for holding US debts in various countries
Why do all countries have to hold US debts?
This starts with the origin of US dollar hegemony.
After experiencing two world wars, the United States not only did not hurt the economy, but also made a fortune in war and squeezed out the wealth of most countries in the world, becoming the richest one in the world.
But at the beginning of the last century, countries around the world did not have the concept of "reserve currency". Everyone did not recognize the money of any country, but only recognized gold. Gold was the only "hard currency" that could be passed through.
How much currency can each country issue is also directly related to its own gold reserves. It is not that you can print as much as you want, but that you can print as much as you want, but that you can print as much as you have as much gold as you guarantee.
And the United States actually already owned two-thirds of the world's gold at that time, and it was undoubtedly the country with the greatest voice.
So after the war ended, the United States told other countries around the world that since I am the boss, you must listen to me. After
, the US dollar is directly linked to gold. If you want to do global trade, you must exchange it for US dollars. Your country's currency maintains a fixed exchange rate monetary system with the US dollar, making the US dollar the center of international monetary system .
This is the so-called Bretton Woods system . Banks around the world no longer deposit gold . All the deposits are US dollars, which is also the origin of why the US dollar is called "US dollars".
However, in the 1970s, the United States was too restricted, and it began to collapse the Bretton Woods system. The US dollar then tied to oil, and to a certain extent it turned into a petrodollar dollar, essentially becoming a credit dollar. With the support of the US national credit, it further established the hegemonic position of the US dollar.
practice has been going on to this day. Some people may ask, why do I have to charge US dollars for selling things and pay US dollars for buying things? Can't I make payment in RMB?
is a pity, no.
The situation of directly using RMB for settlement in foreign trade is quite rare - the key is that people don’t recognize it! What do people recognize
? Recognize the US dollar.
Because the United States has proved its strong strength in a long historical process and has made the US dollar a part of the international monetary system.
So when countries around the world want to conduct foreign trade transactions with other countries, the best way to settle is the US dollar. Therefore, holding a certain amount of US bonds is also for the convenience of timely trading, as well as investment, etc.
Of course, the benefits brought to the United States by the US dollar's world currency status are obvious. The biggest advantage is that the United States can directly exchange oil products from other countries with cheap banknotes, etc.
Does the United States dare to rely on debts
The United States owes China more than 1 trillion US dollars, do you dare to rely on debts?
Not to mention anything else, even if your best friend owes you so much money, you will feel panic, let alone an American who is facing us! It is normal to worry about that.
But the United States owes so much money, he dare not refusal to pay the debt at all, because if we don’t pay back our money, what would other countries think? I guess I think I can rely on China today and we will definitely rely on ours tomorrow. So I will sell US debts as soon as possible.
sells more and more US debts, which will lead to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, which will affect the US world's monetary hegemony, and will make others feel that the US country has poor credit. So who dares to lend it in the future?
And more importantly, Americans themselves also hold a large amount of U.S. debt.
, for example, , Apple bought US$52.6 billion in US Treasury bonds, , Fed even held up to 5.68 trillion in US Treasury bonds, and other U.S. departments and companies have also purchased a lot of US Treasury bonds.
If the United States dares not return our money, these investors will definitely be the first to stand up and not agree.
Because once you rely on your debt, your own interests will be affected. What’s more important is that the money invested is mainly in social security fund , which is the money for everyone to see a doctor and retire.
If you lose this money, it is not impossible for Americans to rush into the US Congress with a gun.
Furthermore, if the United States lacks money, it can also increase the printing machine to print more dollars, and then let the world help him share the pressure. This method will make him never worry about money, and he will not feel the crisis of hiding debt.
Although countries around the world judge that the United States does not dare to pay back the debt, if the United States really reaches the point where it does not pay back the money, will China have any measures to solve this problem? There is actually
. The United States blindly prints more dollars, which will also have bad effects, such as the debt crisis becoming increasingly greater. What problems will this lead to?
For example, in 2020, in order to stimulate the economy, the United States issued huge bonds to subsidize each US citizen. In addition, if it applies for unemployment, it can also receive a subsidy of US$600 per week. This wave of benefits can be said to be unnecessary.
But if everyone thinks it is just giving benefits to the people, it is just a look at the surface. In fact, a considerable proportion is used for military affairs.
The United States has more than 700 long-term military facilities in more than 130 countries and has U.S. troops stationed in 65 countries. The United States' military budget ranks first in the world, and the United States' military budget accounts for 40%-50% of the total of countries in the world. These U.S. bonds issued by
are equivalent to the left hand and the right hand, and are in the hands of arms dealers such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing , "Thor", Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics.
The United States issues bonds on one hand, but prints a large amount of money on the other hand, so that the printed dollars can be bought and bought all over the world. This led to the surge in prices of commodities , such as coal, oil, ore, etc. in the international market.
This is undoubtedly a very worrying thing for other countries, so when the US debt risk is very high, we will attack our own US debt and gradually sell the US debt we own.
For example, Russia has been de-dollarized in the past few years. At present, the US debt they have is less than 2% of the world. As the second largest country in US debt, China has certainly considered this, but it is still too early to maintain it at present.
Moreover, in history, there has never been a default in US debt. The principal and interest are repaid on time every time, which is relatively rare.
, which was popular in 10 years ago, also started with the downgrade of the sovereign credit rating of Greece , which caused general panic in the capital community about euro bonds, and led to the outbreak of the European debt crisis .
Although the United States has so much debt, its repayment ability is still worthy of guarantee.
takes a step back and says that if we really get to the point of debt, we can still freeze the assets of US-funded enterprises in China. After all, there are a lot of US-funded enterprises in China.
The most important point is that the United States will not really rely on China's debt for its own interests.
Because a country's credit can be said to be priceless, once a default occurs, it is very likely that the butterfly effect will be generated, resulting in a series of economic avalanches and endless troubles.
So no matter from which perspective, the United States will lose money by relying on the US debt held by China, and it is likely to ruin its hegemony. After all, it is unpaid to pick up sesame seeds and lose watermelons.
