(report producer/author: Bank of China Securities, Tao Bo, Yang Shaohui)
core viewpoint
semiconductor equipment industry has been growing for a long time, and international giants have actively acquired mergers and acquisitions and technological progress have promoted the industry's concentration and continuous improvement. The advancement of 5G technology has promoted the popularization of applications such as the Internet of Things, high-performance computing, AI, and automotive electronics. The expansion of the downstream application scope of semiconductors has also promoted the continuous growth of the semiconductor equipment industry. According to the latest data from SEMI, the scale of the semiconductor equipment industry will reach US$71.8 billion and US$76.2 billion in 2021 and 2022, maintaining an average annual compound growth rate of more than 8%. Leading international companies are actively acquiring mergers and acquisitions, such as Applied Materials, which has achieved 19 mergers and acquisitions and the latest acquisition of IP technology company Think Silicon; ASML has acquired 5 mergers and acquisitions in total but focuses on supplementing high-value-added technologies, and the industry concentration has further increased.
The scale of the global semiconductor equipment industry continues to heat up, and advanced processes are the main driving force. North American semiconductor equipment manufacturer set a record high in March 2021, and shipments accelerated in the first quarter. The world's top 8 semiconductor equipment companies increased by 11.5% month-on-month and 45.1% year-on-year. In terms of the wafer foundry, TSMC capital expenditure in 2021 will reach US$30 billion, an increase of nearly 76% year-on-year, and about 80% will be used for advanced processes, and the advanced processes of 16nm and below account for 63% of the revenue in the first quarter. Its latest technology roadmap shows that the 5nm process will increase to up to 150,000 pieces per month by the end of 2021, the 4nm process will enter the "risk production" stage by the end of 2021, and the 3nm process will be mass-produced in the second half of 2022. At the same time, Samsung recently announced the SRAM memory chip manufactured by the 3nm process and will be mass-produced in 2022. ASML The EUV order volume in the first quarter increased by 133% month-on-month, showing explosive growth. Driven by the active expansion of fabs and the accelerated layout of 5nm and 3nm processes, the demand for process equipment will be further increased.
local wafer fab project is actively being built, and the mainland semiconductor equipment market is still active. Currently under construction of crystalline wafers are mostly 12-inch wafers used for advanced processes below 28nm, and will be put into production at the end of 2021 as soon as possible, and new wafer factory projects/expansion projects still have procurement needs for equipment.
domestic substitution process for semiconductor equipment has become clearer. Currently, domestic equipment technology is gradually achieving a "zero" breakthrough, such as winning bid for i-line lithography machine , obtaining batch orders for ion implantation machine, film thickness measurement equipment, and morphology detection equipment obtaining repeated orders. In the new high-prosperity stage of the global semiconductor equipment industry, we continue to be optimistic about domestic brands of PVD, etching, cleaning, CMP, heat treatment and other equipment, and lithography, glue coating development, measurement, CVD, ALD and other products are expected to gain opportunities for cultivation. Driven by the dual factors of continuous interference in the external environment and internal policy support, according to statistics from China International Bidding Network data, the localization rate of major local wafer production line equipment reached 13%, of which the localization rate of glue removal, CMP, etching, cleaning, heat treatment and PVD reached 66%, 24%, 23%, 22%, 22% and 14%, respectively. The leading first-tier Zhongwei and Shengmei are expected to accelerate international penetration. In terms of testing equipment, domestic brands have begun to move towards the SOC and Memory testing markets, while Jingsheng and Jingneng have made breakthroughs in the growth and processing equipment of silicon wafers and .
. Semiconductor equipment has grown steadily for a long time, with the industry highly concentrated The overall scale of the industry has steadily increased. It is expected to exceed US$71.8 billion in 2021
The scale of the semiconductor equipment industry fluctuates in the short term and continues to grow steadily for a long time. The industry size in 1992 was only US$8.1 billion; from 1995 to 2003, it stabilized at US$20-30 billion; excluding the negative impact of the 2008 financial crisis, it stabilized at US$30-40 billion from 2004 to 2016; despite fluctuations in 2019 due to the impact of the international geopolitical friction, it remained at US$55-65 billion from 2017 to 2019; SEMI pointed out in its global semiconductor equipment market statistics report that in 2020, it grew by 19% to US$71.2 billion, breaking the 70 billion mark. From 1992 to 2020, the global semiconductor equipment industry market size had a compound annual growth rate of about 8%.According to SEMI's 2020 year-end total equipment forecast report on SEMICON Japan, the scale of the semiconductor equipment industry in 2021 and 2022 will reach US$71.8 billion and US$76.2 billion respectively. Based on the current situation of a significant increase in capital expenditure of mainstream wafer factories, the scale of the semiconductor equipment industry is expected to exceed US$71.8 billion in 2021.
As new technologies and new products such as 5G, the Internet of Things, high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, and automotive electronics promote global electronicization, the downstream application scope of semiconductor device continues to expand. According to the semiconductor application forecast report released by IDC, global semiconductor sales increased by 10.8% year-on-year to US$464 billion in 2020, and will increase by 12.5% year-on-year to US$522 billion in 2021. IBS, a US electronics industry strategic consulting company, publicly claimed that it will reach $1.1 trillion by 2030. As the cornerstone of the industry and the support of national policies, semiconductor equipment will continue to grow steadily and are expected to break through new highs.
SEMI In its latest quarterly global fab forecast report, global fab equipment spending increased by 16% year-on-year to US$64.6 billion in 2020. Driven by the surge in demand for electronic equipment caused by the epidemic, it is expected to maintain a 16% growth rate of US$74.6 billion in 2021 and an estimated growth of 12% to US$83.6 billion in 2022, setting a new record for three consecutive years. In 2021, wafer foundry equipment expenditure is US$32 billion, accounting for 43%, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and will remain the same in 2022; storage equipment expenditure will increase slightly to US$28 billion, accounting for 38%, and will increase by 26% to US$35.3 billion in 2022.
Digital transformation has driven the scale of the semiconductor equipment industry to rise phased, with AI and big data helping to reach a new level
2000-2010 is the global PC Internet era. The market size of the semiconductor process equipment industry is at the average level of US$25 billion (process equipment accounts for 70%-80% of the overall semiconductor equipment industry). From 2010 to 2017, humans entered the era of smartphone social media, and the market size of the semiconductor process equipment industry rose to the average of US$32 billion. From 2017 to 2020, the world entered the era of 5G, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, and the market size of semiconductor process equipment increased to an average of US$45 billion.
COVID-19 is sweeping the world, changes in lifestyles such as virtual office and distance education have promoted the downstream penetration of AI and big data technologies. The demand for memory chips, and logic chips for high-performance computing, 5G, AI, etc. is increasing, and the popularity of new energy vehicles and driverless driving has driven the growth of demand for automotive chips. As the cornerstone of the industry, semiconductor process equipment, based on the market space of 71.8 billion US dollars in semiconductor equipment in 2021 predicted by SEMI, and the median proportion of process equipment will be close to US$55 billion in 2021.
The global semiconductor equipment industry is highly concentrated, and mergers and acquisitions accelerate the monopoly process
The top three semiconductor equipment companies in the world in 2018 are Applied Materials, ASML, and Lam Research, with a total market share of approximately 50%. The top five Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, TEL, and KLA have a total market share of 71%. According to the latest statistics from VLSI Research, among the top 11 semiconductor equipment companies in 2020, the top five Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, TEL, and KLA account for 84%, and the industry is highly concentrated.
sub-categorized products of semiconductor equipment are ranked among the top 1-4 companies. oligopoly :
(1) Lithography machine: EUV100% comes from ASML, ASML is in an absolute monopoly position in the lithography machine market;
(2) etching equipment: silicon-based etching is mainly monopolized by Lam and AMAT, media etching is mainly monopolized by TEL and Lam;
(3) Thin film equipment: CVD is mainly monopolized by Hitachi , Lam, TEL, AMAT, PVD is mainly monopolized by Lam and AMAT. Monopoly;
(4) Development equipment: TEL is in an absolute monopoly;
(5) ion implanter : AMAT accounts for 70%, Axcelis Technologies accounts for 18%;
(6) Cleaning equipment: mainly from DNS, Lam, TEL, etc.;
(7) CMP: AMAT accounts for 70%, Ebara accounts for 26%;
(8) Heat treatment: monopolized by AMAT, Hitachi International Electric, TEL;
(9) Glue removal equipment: PSK, Lam, Hitachi High-Tech, Yitang Semiconductor monopoly;
(10) Process testing equipment: KLA accounts for 50%, AMAT accounts for 12%, and Hitachi High-Tech accounts for 10%;
(11) Slicing/Thinning Machine: Japan DISCO absolute monopoly;
(12) Test equipment: monopoly by Teradyne and Advantest duopoly. While improving its own strength, the international equipment leader actively adopts a merger and acquisition strategy to complement and expand product development, and the industry concentration continues to increase. Taking Applied Materials, which ranked first in 2020 as an example, public information shows that it has acquired as many as 19 mergers and acquisitions. It tried to acquire KOKUSAI ELECTRIC, a subsidiary of Hitachi Productions for US$3.5 billion, but the plan ultimately failed due to the failure to reach international consensus, which still reflects its active merger and acquisition development strategy.
Overall, the market share of the top 10 companies in the semiconductor equipment industry in 2007 was 66%, and the total market share reached 81% in 2018, an expansion by 15 percentage points; while the market share of the top 5 companies in 2007 was 57%, and the market share reached 71% in 2018, an expansion by 14 percentage points, and the industry concentration significantly increased.
In the lithography machine industry, ASML has acquired about 5 times in history, but they are all focused on the supplement of high-value-added technologies. The monopoly capability has been increasing year by year, and 100% of EUV lithography machines come from ASML. Judging from the sales of lithography machines, ASML accounted for only 55% in 2005, and its market share had reached 91% by 2020, which has significantly expanded by 36 percentage points in 15 years. The concentration of the etching equipment industry is also continuing to increase:
(1) In the dielectric etching equipment market, TEL and Lam Research monopolized 97% of the market share in 2018, an increase of 21 percentage points from 2005;
(2) In the conductive etching equipment market, Lam Research and AMAT monopolized 86% of the market share in 2018, an increase of 12 percentage points from 2005.
. semiconductor equipment industry continues to heat up, and advanced processes are the main promoter Since the first quarter, semiconductor equipment shipments have continued to rise
North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers shipped US$3.274 billion in March 2021, breaking the high in May 2018 and setting a record high, up 4.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 47.9%.
Since the first quarter of 2021, the shipment amount in January exceeded US$3 billion for the first time, a month-on-month increase of 13.3%, and a year-on-year growth rate of 29.8%; the delivery amount in February was US$3.143 billion, a month-on-month increase of 3.5%, and a year-on-year growth rate of 32.4%; the monthly shipment amount in the first quarter achieved continuous growth, and the year-on-year growth rate in January-March was both expanded compared with the previous month.
Similarly, Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturers' shipments increased rapidly in March and reached an all-time high of 240.7 billion yen (approximately US$2.2 billion) month-on-month growth rate was 28.36%, a year-on-year increase of 22.01%. The shipments in the first quarter achieved continuous growth in three months, with significant increase in both month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates.
International equipment leader's revenue and gross profit margin increased significantly in the first quarter
International semiconductor equipment leading enterprises' revenue in the first quarter showed a relatively rapid increase overall trend, and the growth trend is expected to continue.According to the 2020 global semiconductor equipment ranking released by VLSI Research, we count the top 8 semiconductor equipment listed companies, with revenue of approximately US$22.9 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 11.5% month-on-month, achieving month-on-month growth for four consecutive quarters; a year-on-year growth of 45.1%.
ASML's revenue in the first quarter was the same as last period and maintained a high income level. ASML's revenue in the first quarter was 4.36 billion euros (approximately US$5.14 billion), a significant increase of 79% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since 2014; revenue in the second quarter is expected to decline slightly from the previous quarter, mainly due to the delay in revenue recognition caused by the re-acceptance of transportation equipment as soon as possible, but it can still maintain a rapid growth of nearly 21% year-on-year.
Applied Materials revenue in the first quarter was US$5.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 10.1% and a year-on-year increase of 24.0%. It is expected that revenue in the second quarter of this year will be US$5.39±2 billion, a month-on-month increase of about 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of about 36.2%; LAM's revenue in the first quarter was US$3.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 53.7%, an expansion of nearly 20 percentage points from the previous quarter. It is expected that revenue in the second quarter of this year will be US$40±250 million, a month-on-month increase of 4.0% and a year-on-year increase of 43.3%. TEL's first quarter revenue was 439.2 billion yen (approximately US$3.7 billion), a 50.6% month-on-month increase and 35.8% year-on-year increase. In terms of gross profit margin of
, the overall level of the fourth quarter of last year remained at a high level in the first quarter and continued to increase slightly, the second highest level since Q3 2018, indicating that the profitability of the global semiconductor equipment industry has been greatly improved. Among them, after ASML significantly increased from 47.5% in the third quarter to 52.0% in the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin continued to rise to 53.9% in the first quarter, and it is expected that the gross profit margin will reach 49% in the second quarter, a slight decline but can still maintain a high profit level; in addition, Applied Materials' gross profit margin in the first quarter was 45.51%, which continues to maintain a high level, and it is expected that the gross profit margin in the second quarter will reach 47%. LAM's gross profit margin in the first quarter was 46.27%, and the gross profit margin in the second quarter will reach 46.5%. TEL's gross profit margin in the first quarter was 40.6%, continuing to maintain a high level.
foundries continue to increase capital expenditure and accelerate the layout of advanced processes
Against the backdrop of the continued deterioration of the global chip supply and demand gap, the expansion plan of foundries has kept the demand for semiconductor equipment continue to heat up. Intel announced plans to build two new fabs in 2021, with a capital expenditure budget of $20 billion. Samsung Electronics showed the world's first 3nm process SRAM memory chip technology display at the IEEE International Integrated Circuit Conference, and is working hard to lay out advanced processes. Recently, TSMC has also updated its process technology roadmap. 5nm will increase to up to 150,000 pieces per month by the end of 2021, the 4nm process will enter the "risk production" stage by the end of 2021, the 3nm process will be mass-produced in the second half of 2022, and 2nm is under development and is expected to achieve mass production in 2024.
Take TSMC, the world's largest chip foundry, as an example. It pointed out at the first quarter performance briefing in April 2021 that CAPEX in 2021 will be revised up from the previously expected US$25-28 billion to US$30 billion, of which 80% will be used for advanced processes such as 5nm and 3nm. A total of US$100 billion will be invested from 2021 to 2023 to expand production capacity to cope with the chip shortage that may continue to 2022. In addition, TSMC has also announced a production expansion plan in its mature process. In response to the current shortage of automotive chips, it plans to invest US$2.89 billion to expand the production of the 28nm chip production line at its Nanjing factory. It plans to complete the production capacity from 20,000 pieces per month to 40,000 pieces per month by 2023.
TSMC's revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was 35% and 14% respectively, accounting for 49%, and 16nm and below revenue accounted for 63%. Advanced processes have become the main source of revenue. Among them, the revenue of 7nm expanded by 6 percentage points compared with the previous period, making it the best process node with revenue growth and stable at a relatively high level.
Advanced process equipment has high investment flexibility. Taking TSMC as an example, the investment amount of each node has risen rapidly, of which 16nm process has an investment of 10,000 pieces of production capacity, while 10,000 pieces of production capacity of 7nm process has an estimated investment of 3 billion US dollars, and 10,000 pieces of production capacity of 5nm process has an estimated investment of 6 billion US dollars.According to IBS, a 28nm process production line with an annual output of 50,000 wafers requires US$3.95 billion in equipment investment, 14nm process requires US$6.272 billion in 14nm process, and both 7nm and 5nm processes exceed 10 billion in 10 billion.
At the same time, Samsung is also accelerating the layout of advanced processes. According to Samsung's "Semiconductor Vision 2030", Samsung plans to invest about 133 trillion won (approximately RMB 768 billion) in a bid to surpass TSMC in advanced processes by 2030. The newly built 5nm wafer fab will be put into production in the second half of 2021. According to Bloomberg , Samsung will mass-produce 3nm process chips in 2022, which is consistent with TSMC's plan to mass-produce 3nm in the second half of 2022. Recently, Samsung demonstrated the 256Mb (32MB) capacity SRAM memory chips manufactured by the 3nm process for the first time at the International Solid State Circuit Conference.
advanced process technology is rapidly iterating, and mainstream companies have concentrated in the first half of 2021 to announce a technological breakthrough. Following the launch of TSMC with a new technology route and Samsung announced its first 3nm SRAM memory chip, IBM announced on May 6 that it would build the world's first 2nm EUV chip, with a density of 333.33 MTr/mm2, twice the TSMC 5nm process. But it should be noted that IBM does not have its own wafer fab.
Driven by the increasing investment in development of advanced processes and the expansion of production capacity, the demand for equipment such as EUV has also grown rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, ASML's new EUV orders reached 14 units, a month-on-month increase of 133%, showing an explosive growth, indicating that the demand for equipment for advanced processes has further increased. ASML's EUV delivery volume slowed in the first quarter, delivering 7 EUV equipment, which is still at a historical high level in the face of difficulties in supplying parts, and the company also stated that it will ensure the delivery of 55 NXE:3600D equipment in 2022.
From the overall revenue structure of ASML in the first quarter, revenue growth is still driven by logical customer revenue. Logical customer revenue in the first quarter was 3.602 billion euros, a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 77%, accounting for a relatively high level of 76%. Storage customer revenue was 1.138 billion euros, a month-on-month increase of 22%, and year-on-year growth was stable at 8% and mainly from DRAM revenue, accounting for 24%, a slight increase of 2% over the previous period. As the main application field of advanced processes,
5G technology will promote the development of smartphones with the widespread commercial penetration, it will also become the driving force for the development of more terminal types and industries. For example, in the field of mobile PC, according to the senior director of Qualcomm product marketing, as of May 2020, nearly 83% of enterprises have been connected to the cloud and data and software are accelerating their migration to the cloud; in the field of mobile education, according to the online tablet sharing session held by Unigroup Zhanrui in May 2020, the shipment of education tablets is expected to rise by 7% in 2020; the high-speed data transmission, low latency and large network capacity of 5G are driving the demand for 5G chips. The 5nm process mobile phone baseband chip has been used in series of mobile phones such as Xiaomi 11Pro and ONEPLUS 9Pro. In the future, with the maturity of technology and the emergence of new applications, 3nm process chips are also expected to be on mobile phone terminals as soon as possible To achieve application, the demand for advanced processes will continue to maintain a high prosperity.
Digitalization promotes a steady increase in the demand for rigid demand for large-capacity storage
The emergence of electronic methods such as smart home integration, smart cars, and smart cities continues to drive the demand for cloud data storage by the Internet of animals. The processing of massive data not only drives the demand for logic circuit chips, but also places higher demands on memory capacity, and memory chips also face new challenges. According to statistics from the Global Mobile Communication Systems Association (GSMA), the number of Internet of Things devices (including cellular and non-cellular) connected in 2025 will reach about 24.6 billion units, and CAGR5 (2025) will reach 14.32%. Internet of Things has become an important direction for global network development.
According to IC Insights data, capital expenditure of memory devices increased from US$14.7 billion in 2013 to US$52 billion in 2018, accounting for a significant increase of 22 percentage points in the semiconductor industry in 7 years to 49% in 2018.In 2019, the memory industrial capital expenditure of US$41.6 billion accounted for 43% of the total semiconductor capital expenditure. Due to oversupply, the price of NAND and DRAM continued to decline, which significantly shrank capital expenditure, accounting for 49% in 2018.
memory technology continues to upgrade and will continue to promote the steady development of the industry. Samsung released its first 512GB DDR5 memory module based on High-K Metal Gate (HKMG) technology in March, with a speed of 2 times higher than DDR4 to 7200Mb/s, reducing energy consumption by 13%. It will be launched in 2H in 2023. SK Hynix 's 176-layer 3D NAND technology released by the end of 2020 will be launched in 2H in 2021. This technology can increase capacity by 35% to 64 and increase read speed by 20%, and data transmission speeds can reach 1.6Gb/s.
The rising demand for automotive MCU chips will further increase wafer demand
MCU chip, also known as microcontroller/singlecomputer, is the core chip of motion control and is widely used in industrial control, automotive electronics, household appliances and other fields. Entertainment systems, body control, battery management, motor drive, etc. are widely used in the automotive field, and automotive electronic applications have occupied more than 1/3 of the MCU market. According to IC Insight data, global automotive MCU sales accounted for 39% of the total MCU sales in 2019, and will rise by 1% to US$6.5 billion in 2020, and the increase in 2021-2023 will gradually increase, eventually reaching US$8.1 billion, with CAGR3 (2023) being 7.6%.
With the electronic promotion of automotive applications such as new energy vehicles and autonomous driving, the demand for MCU chips continues to rise. After the COVID-19 epidemic, auto manufacturers resumed production. Combined with the expansion of chip application scope, the supply and demand gap squeezed by chip production capacity has spread to the automotive field, prompting it to become an important driving force for the rising demand for wafers.
. The local wafer fab project is actively constructed, and the equipment procurement will continue to be promoted. Many wafer fabs in mainland China will be put into production one after another. Important projects are being actively constructed. In April 2021, the Sanan Optoelectronics (Hubei) MicroLED and MacroLED chip projects and the Raditron Optoelectronics semiconductor projects are officially put into production. The 12-inch recycled wafer project of Jingxin Semiconductor will also be put into production in June 2021. Huali Phase II 12-inch Advanced Production Line Project, SMIC International 12-inch FinFET Chip Project, Jita Semiconductor Phase II 12-inch Special Process Production Line, Huahong Semiconductor Integrated Circuit Phase I Energy Expansion Project, Hefei Jinghe 12-inch Wafer Manufacturing Factory II project, etc. are under construction. Mainland Chinese wafer fabs maintain procurement efforts
Huali Phase II: Actively purchase equipment, reaching full production in 2022
Huali Phase II 12-inch project was launched in September 2016, with a total investment of 38.7 billion yuan. The project has built a monthly production capacity of 40,000 pieces in the southern area of Kangqiao Industrial Zone, Pudong New District, with a process of 28-20-14 nanometers. It was put into production in October 2018 and the production capacity has reached 10,000 pieces per month. It is expected to reach full production in 2022.
According to China International Bidding Network , Huali Phase II concentrated on purchasing 7 lithography machines in September and November 2017, and 8 new lithography machines in July and September 2019. 2020 focused on April and July to purchase 6 new lithography machines.
Huahong Wuxi: It is also in a new round of equipment procurement, and the capacity expansion project is about to be put into production
On April 3, 2018, Huahong Group announced that the construction of Huahong Semiconductor Factory No. 7, located in Wuxi, with a total investment of US$10 billion, and a total investment of approximately US$2.5 billion in Phase I project. A new 12-inch special process integrated circuit production line with a process level of 90-65/55nm and a monthly production capacity of approximately 40,000 pieces is built, supporting applications in emerging fields such as 5G and the Internet of Things. It was officially put into production in September 2019, mainly producing 55nm process special chips.
In 2021, Wuxi Huahong Integrated Circuit Phase I expansion project has been announced, with a total planned investment of 5.2 billion yuan. The construction will be completed by the end of 2021, and a 12-inch special process integrated circuit chip production line with a process level of 90-65/55nm and a monthly production capacity of 65,000 pieces.
According to China International Tendering Network, Huahong Wuxi centrally purchased 4 lithography machines in December 2018, 3 new 365nm medium-ultraviolet scanning lithography machines and 1 193nm deep ultraviolet dry scanning lithography machines, 5 lithography machines were purchased in March and November 2020, and 2 new lithography machines were purchased in January 2021. Except for one lithography machine supplied by NIKON in Japan, Huahong Wuxi lithography machines are all supplied by ASML in the Netherlands.
Hefei Jinghe: Expanded the second 12-inch wafer manufacturing plant, and also put into production at the end of 2021
Hefei Jinghe 12-inch wafer manufacturing base project is located in Hefei Xinzhan High-tech Industrial Development Zone Hefei Comprehensive Bonded Zone, with a total investment of 12.81 billion yuan and a designed production capacity of 40,000 pieces per month (480,000 pieces per year). It is mainly used in panel display parts for computers, flat-screen TVs, mobile phones, cameras, automotive electronics and other products. It was completed and put into production in October 2017. As of October 2020, the monthly production capacity has exceeded 30,000 pieces.
12-inch wafer manufacturing plant Second is an expansion project for existing projects with a total investment of 16.5 billion yuan. It will use the existing production plants and some buildings in the factory to build a 40,000-piece/month 12-inch integrated circuit production line, which will be put into production in December 2021.
According to China International Tendering Network, Hefei Jinglian concentrated on purchasing 5 new lithography machines in September and October 2020, and all of them are Japanese suppliers.
4. The semiconductor ecosystem is gradually being stimulated, and the dawn of domestic substitution of equipment is gradually brightening.
is promoting both internal and externally, and the semiconductor industry ecosystem is becoming more active.
External interference stimulates the domesticization process of semiconductor software, equipment and materials. The United States strengthens interaction with Japan and South Korea in foreign policy to promote cooperation in areas such as semiconductor supply chains, and tries to reduce the global semiconductor industry's dependence on China's semiconductor parts and other supply chains by using the means of "ban + industry alliance". As a non-member state of the " WASSENA Agreement ", the new restrictions on semiconductor substrate manufacturing technology and network software exports added by the agreement restrict China's semiconductor industry, and the control of high-end lithography machines, computing lithography software, large silicon wafer processing technology and other technologies is more stringent, including imported high-end lithography machines EUV, immersive and EUV computing lithography software, and large silicon wafer processing technology within 14nm process. In addition, the new export control regulations formulated by the U.S. Department of Commerce for Huawei have completely restricted Huawei from purchasing semiconductor products produced using US software and technology, and the equipment embargo on SMIC also restricted SMIC's plans to expand capital expenditure. Against the backdrop of severe interference from the external environment, the domestic production process of domestic semiconductor equipment companies has been further stimulated.
major funds have entered the recovery period in the first phase, and the second phase has entered the investment stage in full. National Integrated Circuit Fund Phase I was initiated by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Guokai Finance, China Tobacco, Yizhuang Guotou and other companies. It was officially established on September 24, 2014, with a total scale of 138.7 billion yuan. It focuses on investing in the integrated circuit chip manufacturing industry, taking into account chip design, packaging and testing, equipment and materials industries. The companies invested by the Big Fund include China Micro Corporation, Northern Huachuang, Shenyang Tuojing, Jingfang Technology, San'an Optoelectronics, Tongfu Microelectronics, Wanye Enterprise, Yake Technology, Changchuan Technology, Changdian Technology, etc. The investment plan has been completed and has entered the recovery and exit period since the second half of 2019. The second phase of the Big Fund was established on October 22, 2019 with a registered capital of 204.15 billion yuan. According to the 2019 National Big Fund President of the National Big Fund at the Semiconductor Integrated Circuit Parts Summit, the second phase of the Big Fund will maintain high-strength continuous support for enterprises that have been deployed in the fields of etching machines, film equipment, testing equipment and cleaning equipment, and will continue to fill the investment layout of core equipment such as lithography machines, chemical mechanical grinding equipment and key components gaps. In March 2020, it has invested in 4.091% of Unigroup Zhanrui's equity, participated in the IPO of SMIC's Science and Technology Innovation Board, and jointly established SMIC Jingcheng Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Co., Ltd. As of May 2021, it has invested in 9 companies. The second phase of the Big Fund will undertake the responsibilities of the first phase and continue to invest in domestic semiconductor companies.
process equipment: Domestic leaders have gradually been recognized by leading wafer fabs
Referring to the data statistics of China International Tendering Network, the performance of domestic equipment in 2020 includes:
1, and the domesticization rate of some core equipment has been steadily increasing, such as:
a) CMP: Huahai Qingke broke the monopoly of CMP by AMAT, and achieved the domesticization rate of CMP equipment by more than 20%;
b) PVD: Northern Huachuang broke the monopoly of PVD by AMAT, and achieved the domesticization rate of PVD equipment by more than 20%;
c) Etching: Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei, Yitang Semiconductor broke the etching device by AMAT, Lam, TEL Monopoly pattern, realizing the domestic production rate of etching equipment exceeds 20%;
d) Cleaning: Shengmei Semiconductor leads the localization of cleaning equipment on the 12-inch production line, and also achieves a domestic production rate of more than 20%;
e) Glue removal equipment: Yitang Semiconductor has basically fully realized the import substitution of glue removal equipment;
f) Heat treatment equipment: Beifang Huachuang and Yitang Semiconductor realize the domestic production rate of heat treatment equipment exceeds 20%;
2, the domestic production of key process equipment mainly including lithography machines, glue coating development, ion implantation, and measurement equipment, and achieved a milestone major breakthrough in 2020:
a) In terms of lithography machines, i-Line lithography machines have obtained a storage factory and two 8 Orders from the inch OEM factory;
b) Ion implanter: Kaishitong has obtained domestic bulk orders;
c) Measuring equipment: Jingte Electronics and Zhongke Feite has obtained bulk orders;
d) Glue coating developer: Xinyuanwei's new orders have grown rapidly.
First-line equipment companies are gradually going overseas. China Microelectronics has entered TSMC's 5nm process production line. According to Jiwei.com, DRAMeXchange, etc., as one of the five etching equipment suppliers, Zhongwei was included in the 7nm process equipment procurement list by TSMC at the end of 2017. At the end of 2018, its independently developed plasma etching machine was verified and approved by TSMC and confirmed to enter the 5nm production line in early 2021. During the period when TSMC's 5nm process production line expansion and 3nm process are about to be mass-produced, China Micro's plasma etching machine has exceeded 5nm technology, and the evaluation of the etching machine Alpha prototype that can be used in the 3nm process has been completed. The demand is expected to continue and enjoy the demand growth brought about by the continuous iteration of advanced process processes. According to Shengmei Co., Ltd.'s prospectus, SK Hynix contributed 152 million yuan to its sales revenue in 2019, accounting for 20% of its revenue, making it the company's third largest customer. At the same time, the 2021Q1 performance report revealed that SK Hynix has become Shengmei's largest major customer and will invest US$107 billion to build 4 new memory chip production bases, and Shengmei Semiconductor will obtain good performance space.
testing equipment: Domestic brands still need to increase the cultivation of SOC and Memory testing fields
semiconductor testing equipment runs through the entire semiconductor production process, including IC design, manufacturing and packaging and testing. The test content is mainly electrical parameter testing. Tests can be broken down into: SOC testing, RF testing, Memory IC testing and Analog IC testing. Among them, SOC testing accounts for 64% of ATE, while Memory IC and RF testing equipment each account for 15-20%. In 2018, the global semiconductor test equipment market size was approximately US$5.5-6 billion. According to a 64% ratio, the SOC test equipment market size is estimated to be US$3.6 billion.
Global test machine and probe table industry competition landscape is stable, mainly monopolized by international companies such as Teradyne and Advantest. Moreover, the SOC chip testing of 5G mobile phones is more difficult, and the market integration is expected to be further improved. Although domestic companies have made great progress in the segmented product lines in recent years, there have been breakthroughs in domestic production of some test equipment or sorting machines, such as Jingte Electronics, Changchuan Technology, Huafeng Measurement and Control, Guanzhongjichuang, and Jinhaitong. However, domestic brands mainly focus on the more mature power management chip testing equipment and analog and digital-to-analog hybrid testing systems in China, while SOC and Memory chip testing equipment still mainly rely on imported brands, and domestic digital testing equipment urgently needs market cultivation.
silicon wafer growth and processing equipment: Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical Accelerate the Domestic Production of Large Silicon Drill Equipment Replacement of
There are many semiconductor silicon wafer projects, but most of the equipment depends on imports and has a high degree of dependence on Japanese equipment manufacturers:
1) Changjing Furnace: Imported brand South Korea S-TECH, domestic brands Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical and Nanjing Jingneng, Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical and Electrical are expected to achieve Domestic Production of Changjing Furnace;
2) Grinding equipment: More than 95% come from Japan, including equipment manufacturers Tokyo Engineering, Guangyang Machinery, Tokyo Seiji, HAMAI, etc.; Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical and Electrical are expected to achieve Domestic Production;
3) Polishing: 100% relies on imports, foreign brands include Lapmaster, Fujitsu, OKAMOTO, Tokyo Seiki;
4) Thinning: 100% imported from Japan, including DISCO, Koyo Machinery, OKAMOTO (Okamoto Machinery);
Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical Mechanical has achieved the domestic production of Zhonghuan's leading crystal furnace and cutting equipment. It has currently laid out single crystal silicon rod rolling and grinding integrated machine, polishing machine, double-sided grinding, wafer edge detection equipment. In the field of 8-12-inch large silicon wafer equipment, the full coverage and domestic substitution of 8-inch equipment are basically achieved in the crystal growth, slicing, polishing, epitaxial and other wafer material links, and 12-inch crystal growth equipment and some processing equipment are also mass-sold.
Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical accelerated the layout of 8-12-inch large silicon wafer equipment, mainly including:
1) undertakes the "Development of 300mm silicon single crystal direct pulling equipment" and "Development of 8-inch zone melting silicon single crystal furnace domestic equipment" of the major national science and technology project "Extremely Large-scale Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Equipment and Complete Sets" project, and has entered the industrialization stage;
2) Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical reached a cooperation consensus with Revasum in the United States on 200mm silicon wafer polishing equipment, and officially launched an 8-inch polishing machine to the market in 2018;
3) successfully developed 6-12-inch crystal rounding machine, cutoff machine, double-sided grinder and 6-8 Inch fully automatic silicon wafer polishing machine has been gradually sold in bulk; in 2018, new orders were announced 400 million to 500 million yuan;
4) Gradually lay out semiconductor-related auxiliary materials, consumables, and key components businesses, adding semiconductor polishing liquid, valves, magnetic fluid components, 16-32-inch crucibles and other products;
5) Participate in the Wuxi integrated circuit large silicon wafer production project, introduce advanced foreign equipment, strengthen technical strength in the field of high-end precision machining, and establish a large high-vacuum precision component manufacturing base with leading technology and product quality;
6) Under development of 8-inch hard shaft straight-pull silicon single crystal furnace, which can provide a research and development foundation for the 12-inch process;
7) 8, 12 Two semiconductor silicon wafer edge polishers have passed customer technology verification;
8) successfully developed a 36-inch semiconductor quartz crucible, while 32-inch semiconductor quartz crucible has been sold in bulk to customers;
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any of our investment advice. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
selected report source: [Future Think Tank Official Website].
