Just in the middle of this month, Vietnam Viet Jet Airways once again confirmed that it would purchase 200 Boeing 737MAX series passenger aircraft. Note that the word here is "confirm procurement" rather than "decide procurement". In fact, the procurement intentions of these 200 passenger aircraft were reached in YueJet Airways and Boeing as early as 2016 and 2019.
2016, Viet Jet Airlines and Boeing reached a procurement agreement for 100 Boeing 737MAX series passenger aircraft, and in 2019 this number was added to 200, but due to some well-known reasons (737MAX series one after another flight accidents and The impact of the epidemic), this procurement agreement was in a state of incompleteness until the middle of this year before the visit to the United States.
Although the Chinese side announced that it would purchase 292 Airbus A320neo series passenger planes, Boeing was very annoyed, but this time the order of 200 aircraft can also be regarded as a way to win back the whole world. Then everyone can't help but ask whether Vietnam's high-profile confirmation of the procurement agreement with Boeing is to make a stand on certain issues and clearly take sides with the United States, and whether Vietnam's aviation market has the ability to digest these 200 passenger planes?
Let’s answer the first question first. Vietnam’s purchase of Boeing passenger planes is not actually about opposing China. Sensitive netizens are not difficult to find that Vietnam has obviously tended to be rational in terms of policies towards the United States and China in recent years. In the South China Sea, in On the issue, Vietnam also tried its best to avoid conflicts with China, especially since the outbreak of the South China Sea crisis in 2016, Vietnam has gradually realized that with its own military strength, the United States, as a disagreement, will only be among them. The reality of reaping benefits from fishermen also made Vietnam realize that there is absolutely no good result in fighting with China on territorial issues.
In recent years, Vietnam's GDP has grown rapidly, which is not only due to the United States' policy of siege against China, but also mainly relies on the huge Chinese market. Although Trump tried hard to bring manufacturing from China back to the United States, the extremely high transfer cost still discouraged many capitalists. While suppressing China, a large amount of manufacturing industry actually ended up flowing to Vietnam. This eventually led to a huge trade deficit between the United States and Vietnam, making Vietnam one of the targets of the US trade war, which is ridiculous. Although the United States has interfered with it, China-Vietnam relations have been on the steadily and improving in recent years, and Vietnam's domestic political situation still has many variables. Faced with the possible outbreak of color revolutionary crisis, Vietnam also needs more support from China at this time.
As a small country that survives in the cracks, it is not easy to offend either party. In order to balance the growing trade gap between and the United States, Vietnam has to surrender to the Americans' tyranny and spend money to avoid disasters through large-scale passenger aircraft procurement. At the same time, it can further inject new new things into Vietnam's domestic and international civil aviation industries. The vitality can be regarded as a killer of one kill. So let’s come to the second question: Does Vietnamese civil aviation have the ability to digest such a huge passenger aircraft order?
To answer this question, I think we have to start with the rapid economic development of Vietnam in recent years and the continuous take-off of the civil aviation industry.
Vietnam has always retained the impression of a backward Southeast Asian country in our minds. In fact, this impression was indeed the case before the 1980s.
1986 Vietnam began to implement the so-called reform and opening up. The core is to introduce market economy . All is centered on economic construction . Until Vietnam's reform and opening up in 1995, it had initial results, and then shifted the work center to industrialization. In the past 40 years since the reform and opening up began in Vietnam, its economy has been in a steady growth trend, but its achievements have become more significant since the Sino-US trade war in 2019. In 2019, Vietnam's total export volume exceeded US$250 billion, with GDP growth exceeding 7%. Looking at the entire ASEAN region, there are almost no competitors. From 2000 to 2018, the average GDP growth rate was 6.4%, ranking second in ASEAN, second only. Malaysia (but currently, the per capita GDP level in Vietnam is still very low).The extremely low land costs and labor costs combined with the major changes in the trade pattern are a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Vietnam's economic growth. The strong natural environment and low consumption levels have also made Vietnam one of the world's tourist destinations.
And all of this has also brought the Vietnamese civil aviation industry to a golden period.
In 2019, the passenger throughput of various airports in Vietnam exceeded 115 million, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, and the international and domestic cargo aviation markets were even more gratifying. Among them, Viet Jet Airways is Vietnam's second largest airline and the largest private airline. Although its market share is less than that of state-owned Vietnam Airlines , its profit margin is almost more than twice that of Vietnam Airlines, and its market value is even more than Vietnamese. Airlines is about 8 billion yuan higher. As a low-cost airline, if you compare the Spring Airlines , which is both low-cost airlines, although its market value is far less than Spring Airlines, the revenue growth rate from 2015 to 2018 is indeed twice that of Spring Airlines. Vietnam's aviation industry is still in a stage of rapid development, and with the advent of the post-epidemic era, Vietnam's civil aviation industry, import and export business and tourism industry still have very good market prospects, and this is why Viet Jet Airlines can be in 2022 I have the confidence to continue to purchase 200 new passenger aircraft in 2019.
In short, Vietnam's economy will still have enough room for growth for a long time in the future, and the civil aviation tourism industry is gradually returning to the level before the epidemic. How far can Vietnam's development go? I still want to It depends on how far the Vietnamese rulers can see, and the most core of this is how to wander between the two major powers of China and the United States as a small country. After all, if anyone is neglected, it will cause big problems.
