Author: Text/Yu Ziqi
Since May, abnormal climate phenomena can be said to be very common, and there are relatively large changes in both land and ocean areas. The news of typhoons that everyone has been paying attention to has also seen new changes. According to data from the European and American Meteorological Center, the embryo generation of "Double Typhoon " can be confirmed! Does this mean that the typhoon active period has appeared this year?
Then let’s take a look at the specific situation. This is also the first double typhoon embryo in May. Overall, there is still room for changes, so the changes are still not low. Everyone needs to pay attention in time. Indeed, although there have been many typhoon embryos since 2020, there have been no typhoons. What everyone is most worried about is that there are several typhoons at once and some major typhoons have also been generated. Let’s take a look at how this “double typhoon embryo” will be. develop.
From the perspective of Fengyun satellite images, it is true that is constantly in the Pacific region of Northwest , and is constantly hiding , but from the current situation, it is still very scattered, so many people may not be able to see any Changes, but 95W and 96W are among them.
First, let’s take a look at 95W. 95W is the first defined typhoon embryo, with a center position at 6.8°N 135.8°E. The current maximum wind speed is still maintained at 15 kt, and the lowest central pressure is also generalized, at 1010hpa. However, some institutions are more optimistic about this typhoon embryo, and may develop into this year's No. 1 Typhoon. First, let’s take a look at the simulation of GFS. From the data point of view, 95W is in an extremely unstable situation now, but it is constantly brewing and developing.
At the same time, under the influence of subtropical high pressure, its development has also been subject to certain resistance. However, under the influence of subtropical high pressure, it is moving westward and is expected to reach a 999hpa air pressure value on May 12, and it is still in the future. The fluctuation state only has a stable mode after reaching the 995hpa pressure value, and it will continue to increase afterwards. According to the simulation path of supercomputer, after enhancement, it will quickly log into Philippine , and then enter my country's South China Sea to develop.
According to the simulation of GFS, the strongest typhoon embryo may reach the 951hpa pressure value, so according to this intensity, it may be a big typhoon. Later, we will approach South China. However, I will not be able to land. It is true that the ocean temperature in the South China Sea area is relatively high now, with a large range of around 30 degrees, and there is also a 31 degree area, so the possibility is indeed relatively high.
According to the simulation situation, it will "parabolic" mode and then go north, so 95W will perform very strongly in the GFS simulation. Let’s take a look at the prediction of GEFS. The simulation data of GEGS is much lower. The strongest is a tropical storm level, and the GEPS simulation is even lower, which is equivalent to a tropical low-pressure mode.
At the same time, the comprehensive data in European values are not optimistic about this typhoon embryo. The strongest estimate is also a tropical low pressure mode. So now only the simulation of GFS is the strongest, and there is a controversial range. This is 95W The situation of typhoon embryos can only be said to be a probability of Typhoon No. 1 this year. It depends on who predicts it accurately in the later stage, but there is still a lot of room for change, so I can only refer to it, just like GFS was optimistic about 94W typhoon embryos at first, but in the end it was also Disappeared.
. For 96W, the newly appeared typhoon embryo is not strong, just like 95W. According to the simulation of supercomputers, we are not optimistic about the possibility of development, so we will observe it later. Overall, there is indeed a probability that a double typhoon embryo will appear, but since the estimated time to generate a typhoon is still far away, there is still a lot of room for getting better in a short time, so everyone can only refer to it.
cannot be said that if a typhoon embryo appears, a typhoon will definitely be generated. This year is indeed not many typhoons for the time being, but according to the National Climate Center, this year may be a year with a slightly more and more strong typhoons. This must always pay attention to changes and affect us. There may not be few typhoons, and this is the case with the double typhoons.
Finally, it is emphasized again that the simulation data of supercomputers is temporarily based on reference. There is still room for embryo changes in the first double typhoon in May. However, from the current situation, 95W may become the No. 1 Typhoon this year, but GFS The estimated period of the given is high, so it can only be referenced. In the end, both typhoon embryos may disappear, so it can only be referenced.
