Author Teng Xinyun Taiwan strategic scholar
Taiwan and the United States are expected to welcome two major highlights in September, namely the "Taiwan-US 21st Century Trade Initiative" and the "Taiwan Policy Act". If the cross-strait bill is passed, it may be a blessing or misfortune for Taiwan.
As the Trump era began to pay 50 billion US dollars in China's products with tariffs and The FBI cooperated to shape the "Thousand Talents Plan" incident, the two major powers of China and the United States gradually intensified, and Biden in After came to power, the confrontation between China and the United States continued. Under the confrontation between China and the United States, Taiwan, as a bargaining chip, seems to have heated up with the United States.
In the past two years, American politicians have frequently visited Taiwan, accompanied by the introduction of a series of new economic and trade agreements and bills led by the United States. It was not until early August that US Congress Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan reached its peak. These actions seem to show that the United States is more friendly to Taiwan and intends to win over Taiwan. Many people even imagine that Taiwan can benefit from the continued confrontation between China and the United States.
However, from the two major dramas of Taiwan and the United States in September, it can be seen that in the United States' calculations, Taiwan will always be an ATM with a glorious shell.
The United States leads the release of banned food into Taiwan campuses
Taiwan and the United States announced the formal launch of the "21st Century Trade Initiative Negotiation". Su Zhenchang, the head of Taiwan's administrative agency, was eager to hype the topic. When the negotiations were not officially underway, he said through a spokesperson. It is the "official launch of the initiative" that symbolizes the breakthrough development of Taiwan-US economic and trade relations, and will further improve Taiwan's economic level.
"Governmental Affairs Commissioner" Deng Zhenzhong also said that this was Taiwan's wish for "waiting for 30 years". The first meeting, which appeared in early September, listed trade facilitation and small and medium-sized enterprises as priority projects, and emphasized that "Taiwan and the United States have high ambitions" .
Deng Zhenzhong even believes that Taiwan-US negotiations on trade agreements have many benefits for Taiwan, and said to the outside world that this will accelerate the coordination and coordination of Taiwan-US regulations, and that it is an initiative to adopt high standards in negotiations, which will enhance Taiwan's competitiveness in the new generation. He also told the business community that this will accelerate the coordination and coordination of Taiwan's dual regulations. There will be more opportunities to participate in international organizations such as the "Trans-Pacific Partnership Comprehensive Progress Agreement" (CPTPP), and even incite confrontation and advocate that Taiwan and the United States can discuss how to jointly resist economic coercion from third countries.
In fact, the negotiations on the Taiwan-US trade initiative did not really involve supply chain integration, anti-corruption, agricultural industry inspection, and trade facilitation that Taiwan's industry cares about. Not only is it limited in helping Taiwan, but the current negotiation direction is dominated by the United States, it is probably because Taiwan suffers a loss.
For example, Taiwan once "legislated" to ban American pigs from entering campuses but failed. Some local governments had to use the autonomous regulations to prohibit them, while basic food has been banned from entering campuses. The United States has strict requirements on the rationality of product inspection standards, which can question the scientific basis of Taiwan's inspection standards and force Taiwan to open up banned food.
Therefore, Deng Zhenzhong had to admit that even if the negotiations went smoothly, the issues that were completed will be subject to parcel signing agreements or individual signing issues, and have not yet been decided.
The Taiwan Strait crisis has to pay for arms sales
Regarding the "Taiwan Policy Act" proposed by the US Congress, although Biden has put it on hold until September to retrial, in accordance with Pelosi's ignoring the opposition of the US administration, he insisted on visiting Judging from Taiwan's decision, the style of the White House and Congress is becoming increasingly different, and the version passed in the final is bound to be less different from the original version.
. The bill proposes to make Taiwan one of the United States' "non- NATO allies", which significantly upgrades Taiwan's international status, which will inevitably lead to the rapid and tense cross-strait situation after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, making Taiwan's security more difficult, and faces more security. Big challenge.
The bill has leapfrog adjustments in terms of standards for arms sales to Taiwan, including the United States providing a US$4.5 billion security fund to Taiwan, assisting the modernization of Taiwan's military, and allowing Taiwan to purchase defensive weapons. These changes have clearly violated decades of US adopting a "strategic ambiguity" position towards Taiwan. Once the bill is passed, it will increase the confrontation between China and the United States on cross-strait issues, which is equivalent to putting Taiwan in a more dangerous situation.
In addition, according to the content of the bill, this US$4.5 billion fund will be raised through two ways: loan guarantees and financing assistance to Taiwan. That is, after the bill is passed, Taiwan will have to earn more money for more US arms sales.
On the surface, the two major dramas that warmed up Taiwan-US relations. Taiwan may have gained face but lost its limbs and suffered a higher security crisis. It may be worth the loss.
