The PLA's live-fire military exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan have ended and will be turned into a normalized police patrol in the future. Many netizens believe that the Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, caused by the Taiwan Strait crisis will gradually ease. But the facts may worsen further, and the United States is brewing more serious provocations against China's sovereignty on the Taiwan issue.
In June this year, the so-called Taiwan Policy Act was jointly proposed by the US Democratic and Republican senators, which will be voted in the Senate. Judging from the current situation of the US political arena, the vote is likely to be passed. The seriousness of this bill is that it designates Taiwan as the United States' "mainly non- NATO ally", which means Taiwan will be seen as one of the United States' closest global partners, especially in terms of trade and security cooperation. The bill was called "the most comprehensive adjustment of the US policy to Taiwan" by the US media since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979. It will strengthen Taiwan's defense capabilities through US$4.5 billion in security assistance, and promised that the United States will support Taiwan's participation in international affairs. organize.
Historical scholars have done a thorough research on this bill. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences U.S.-China relations experts said that the bill "will subvert Sino-US relations, and the consequences will be extremely serious", which "is equivalent to recognizing Taiwan's sovereignty. This means that the United States will completely abandon its original policy toward China." Shanghai Director of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University also said the bill could be more challenging than Pelosi's trip, "This will be seen as a direct challenge to establishing the foundation of U.S.-China relations, and China will almost certainly make it better than this time. More intense reaction. ”
It is precisely because our government has made a harsh reaction on Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan that the U.S. government has delayed the voting time of the bill several times and once again last week. But we should be prepared. Judging from the political status of the United States, there is hope for the bill to pass. The usual step in U.S. legislation is that the bill proposal can become formal law now that the Senate votes, then passes in the House, and then signed by the U.S. President. US President Biden has the right to veto the bill passed by the two houses, but with the increasingly fierce political struggle between the two parties in the United States, the only consensus is whether Biden will veto this in the face of the imminent midterm elections. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the bill.
There is a question that needs to be clarified here: under the political system of the United States, the status of laws jointly passed by the U.S. Congress and the President is higher than any communiqués, statements and agreements signed by the U.S. government and foreign governments. These laws must be abide by the US government, otherwise it will be unconstitutional . However, any communiqués, statements and agreements signed by the US government and foreign governments can be torn and withdrawn at any time, just like Trump will sign it casually after he comes to power. Just like the order, the Paris Climate Agreement signed by the Obama administration.
Just over three months after China and the United States formally established diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979, the House and Senate of the U.S. Congress passed the proposal for the "Relations with Taiwan Act" and on April 10, it was then The signing of US President Carter becomes effective into law. In the United States, the status of the "Taiwan Relations Act" is higher than the three joint communiqués of signed by China and the United States. Therefore, for more than 40 years after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the US government has been selling weapons to Taiwan in accordance with this law.
Similarly, if the Taiwan Policy Act becomes a formal law, the US government will directly ignore the three joint communiqués of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.In fact, in the more than 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the US parliament has submitted several Taiwan-related bills, such as the Taiwan Relations Act of Confirmation and Naval Ship Transfer Act of 2014 and the Taiwan The Security Strengthening Act was passed by both the House of Representatives and Senate, but neither was approved by the then US President; however, two bills have been signed into law by the US President, namely the 2019 "International Protection and Strengthening of Taiwan Allies". The Initiative Act and the Taiwan Travel Act of 2018 were not only passed by both the House of Representatives and Senate, but also signed by then-US President Trump, becoming formal laws. Among them, the Taiwan Travel Act clearly allows senior U.S. officials to visit Taiwan, which is the legal reason why Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this time and Biden cannot stop her.
We can see that during the U.S. Republican Party 's rule, more anti-China bills related to Taiwan may be passed. In the US midterm elections in November this year, the U.S. Republican Party will most likely control the majority of seats in the House of Representatives and Senate in November this year. , reality is very unfavorable to us. Of course, some slightly rational members of the United States believe that they may avoid binding statements in bills involving Taiwan and keep the wording more ambiguity, but we cannot pin our hopes on them.
Once Sino-US relations really come to this point, it will be a disaster for anyone. What we can do is to make the most difficult preparations and let the enemies who invade China pay the price of bleeding.
