Since the Democratic Progressive Party's disastrous defeat in the "nine-in-one" election in November 2018, its internal political turmoil has never ceased.
Last week, Lai Qingde, the head of the Taiwan authorities’ administrative agency, held an extraordinary meeting on the 11th to announce his “general resignation”. Subsequently, Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen held a press conference and announced that the former head of the administrative agency, Su Tseng-chang, would take over. The dust of "Lai Xia Su Shang", which has been noisy for a long time, has settled. On Monday this week, Su Zhenchang officially took office, and the team personnel are almost confirmed.
In fact, this is not the first time Su Zhenchang has taken charge of Taiwan's administrative agency. More than ten years ago, he served as the head of the administrative agency of the Chen Shui-bian administration, and Tsai Ing-wen was his deputy at that time. But this time, he became Tsai Ing-wen’s subordinate.
On many occasions in the past, Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang did not interact, and each regarded the other as nothing. DPP boss Hsieh Chang-ting once compared Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang to be "a few light years apart."
has just sent away its "competitor"
and ushered in its "rival"
. What medicine is Tsai Ing-wen selling in the gourd? Is
"letting the tiger go" or "attracting the wolf"?
Taipei City Councilor Hou Hanting
Tsai Ing-wen sees that there is no candidate around to replace Lai Qingde, so choosing Su Zhenchang is a helpless move for Tsai Ing-wen. But on the other hand, Tsai Ing-wen is also worried about Lai Qingde, while Su Zhenchang is a person who has the means and is likely to do well, and will not affect her challenge for re-election. In the future, there will still be offense and defense between Cai and Su. All of Su Zhenchang's current words reveal that his mentality is: Tsai Ing-wen, you want to use me, but I will not listen to your command.
At the same time, another very inconsistent phenomenon immediately appeared. In the "nine-in-one" election in Taiwan, Su Tseng-chang lost 290,000 votes, Lin Jialong lost 200,000 votes, and Chen Chimai lost 150,000 votes. But now that "Su Mai is matched" is in charge of Taiwan's administrative agency, Lin Jialong has taken over as the head of Taiwan's transportation department.
"lost the election" does not matter
and "laid off and re-employed"!
The more votes you lose, the bigger your official position will be. Do you understand this magical operation of
?
Why does the Democratic Progressive Party, which is known to be rich in talents, suddenly appear "stretched"?
Zhang Qilu, Dean of the School of Social Sciences at Sun Yat-sen University in Taiwan
The personnel arrangements for the new team of Taiwan’s administrative agencies have indeed shown the DPP’s dilemma in employment. At present, the DPP is facing an "endgame", and how to "resolve the aftermath" is the biggest problem. The DPP is now facing a huge employment dilemma, so it can only let the old man Su Zhenchang wait and let the Mesozoic generation of the DPP rush to the shelves.
Wants to reverse the decline of Green Camp. How can the defeated general of Green Camp show courage?
At present, Tsai Ing-wen's biggest task for the new administrative team is to deliver "reflective" political achievements in the short term and reverse the island's dissatisfaction with the DPP, so as to restore public opinion. However, from the current perspective, Su Zhenchang wants to There is more than a year left to get a passing grade, which is a big challenge.
He must first solve the mess left by Lai Qingde's period, such as green energy development issues, air pollution issues on the island, unsalable agricultural and fishery products, etc. Some of these issues touch on the DPP's long-term proposition of "denuclearization", and some It involves the transformation of the island's economic development momentum, and some involves the redistribution of interests.
Zhang Qilu, Dean of the School of Social Sciences at Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan
It is indeed difficult to revive the economy within a year. The economic (such as salary increase, house price suppression, smooth flow of cross-strait goods) and environmental (such as nuclear power adjustment) policies that the people feel All of them will highly impact the existing interest structure. If it is not changed, the situation will be hopeless, but after the change, it may not be beneficial to both sides.
What Taiwan needs now is for everyone to live a good life, with the focus on the economy. However, with Tsai Ing-wen gradually escalating cross-strait confrontation, Su Zhenchang will never be able to imitate the "Korean Wave". If he moves closer to Tsai Ing-wen on cross-strait policies, Fighting for the economy is tantamount to being tied together and leading to a dead end.
Su Zhenchang still has a big problem during his tenure, which is how to face the challenge of the "Victors Alliance".
The plenary meeting held every Thursday by Taiwan's administrative body needs to invite six mayors to attend. In the future, New Taipei City Mayor Hou Youyi, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu and Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan may report to the unsuccessful Su Zhenchang, Chen Qimai and Lin Jialong to fight for the budget. wait.
How to reasonably allocate resources between the "Losers Alliance" and the "Winners Alliance" has also become the focus of attention from the outside world.
Su goes up and down, paving the way for the green camp to fight for 2020?
Although the 2020 Taiwan leader election is still more than a year away, all parties, blue and green, have been gearing up and waiting. Within the green camp, the deep-green independence faction has recently expressed dissatisfaction with Tsai Ing-wen. On the other hand, Lai Qingde is highly respected by the deep-green independence faction. Is it possible for Lai Qingde to represent the DPP in 2020 after leaving office? How much mystery does the arrangement of Su Tseng-chang taking over as the head of Taiwan’s administrative agencies imply about the DPP’s plan for 2020?
The direction of Lai Qingde after leaving office is now a mystery
020Will there finally be a battle between Cai and Lai? Will there be a DPP version of "column changing" in ?
In this regard, some scholars believe that the competition between Tsai and Lai is obvious. Deep Green still places high hopes on Lai Qingde, but Tsai Ing-wen is determined. Lai Qingde should not be able to directly challenge Tsai Ing-wen based on ethics, unless Tsai Ing-wen's governance appears in the next year. A big problem, otherwise her position in the DPP cannot be shaken.
At the same time, Su Zhenchang's "return to the pot" is widely regarded by the outside world as helping Tsai Ing-wen's re-election in 2020.
Taipei City Councilor Hou Hanting
The role Su Zhenchang is more likely to play is that in the future, when Zhu Lilun mentions his local achievements, Su Zhenchang can evaluate him based on his qualifications as an old county magistrate. If Tsai Ing-wen faces Zhu Lilun in the future, Su Zhenchang can help Tsai "block the gun" from the front, playing the role of "lower horse versus upper horse". However, whether he can successfully contain Zhu Lilun depends on whether Su Zhenchang has political achievements within half a year.
Public opinion that "hates the DPP" has not yet dissipated. At this time, launching this second-rate arrangement, which is ridiculed as an "alliance of losers", is the safest plan for Tsai Ing-wen; for Taiwan, it is just "delay" As time goes by, there will be no new situation to look forward to. On the other hand, due to the constraints of the general environment, Su Zhenchang formed such a "League of Losers" in a short period of time. Regardless of whether this "League of Losers" would become the "Avengers" and disrupt the situation on the island, just Whether Su Zhenchang can work with Tsai Ing-wen and lead the team to achieve beautiful results from now on, I am afraid it will take time to give the answer.
★ Source: Xiamen TV's "Cross-Strait Direct Flight" column
✑Written by: Ye Jiaying
✎Editor: Chen Jinhua
