(Report Producer/Author: Western Securities, Luo Yamei)
1. Technology-leading provider of precision temperature control energy-saving equipment
1.1 The company is a leader in precision temperature control, with a stable ownership structure and experienced management
Shenzhen Ying Vick Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2005 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2016. It is one of the leaders in my country's precision temperature control market.
company focuses on providing thermal management solutions and environmental control products for data centers, mobile communication networks, power grid energy storage, industrial automation, indoor healthy environment, rail trains, electric buses, cold chain transportation and other scenarios. It masters the world's leading refrigeration system core technology, control technology, and structural design technology, and has multiple patents.
Invic is headquartered in Shenzhen and has a number of holding subsidiaries. Invic solutions and products are widely used in China Mobile , China Telecom , China Unicom , Tencent , Alibaba , Huawei , ZTE , State Grid , China Southern Power Grid , ICBC , China Construction Bank , Agricultural Bank of China , Sinopec , PetroChina , CNOOC, BYD, Shanghai Metro, Suzhou Metro and other customers, as well as multinational communication operators such as Sprint, Vodafone, SoftBank, Ooredoo, SingTel and so on. Since its establishment in 2005,
company has entered multiple foreign markets, many products have entered the local government procurement list, and it has also participated in the formulation of refrigeration industry standards. In 2018, Invic was rated as one of the top 100 brand enterprises in Shenzhen, and in 2020, it was rated as an intellectual property demonstration unit in Guangdong Province.
has a high proportion of shares held by actual controllers and a stable ownership structure. As of 's 2021 semi-annual report, the company's chairman, Mr. Qi Yong, directly holds 6.19% of the shares and indirectly holds 26.62% of the shares through Shenzhen Invic Investment Co., Ltd., with a total shareholding of 32.81%, and is the actual controller of the company. The remaining major shareholders Wei Lichuan, Liu Jun, Chen Chuan, Chen Tao, Ou Xianhua, Wang Tiewang, You Guobo and Feng Deshu are all company executives. Among the subsidiaries and joint-stock companies of
, Invic Software, Invic Information and Shanghai Cooltech all contributed more than 10% to the company's net profit. Invic Software is the carrier of the company's electronic control platform and is mainly engaged in the development of control software. Invic Information is engaged in the production of electronic control box hardware and some software development. Shanghai Cooltech is a supplier of air conditioners for rail transit and new energy buses.
management has rich experience in operation and management. Most of the core management team of company have many years of management experience in large enterprises such as Huawei and Emerson . The company's chairman and general manager, Mr. Qi Yong, once worked for Inner Mongolia Baotou Iron and Steel Company, and has worked in large multinational companies such as Huawei Electric and Emerson for many years. He has rich experience in business management and has a profound understanding of the development trends of the precision temperature control industry. understand.
In addition to the completed 2017 restricted stock incentive plan , the company motivates employees from different dimensions such as employee salary and promotion paths. In conjunction with the cultivation and expansion of new business, the company plans to implement incentive plans for core employees in subsidiaries through the shareholding platform.
1.2 The company focuses on the precision temperature control industry, with industry-leading product performance.
The company's business is divided into four parts: computer room temperature control and energy-saving equipment, outdoor cabinet temperature control and energy-saving equipment, rail transit train air conditioners and services, and new energy vehicle air conditioners.
company's computer room temperature control business accounts for the highest proportion of total revenue. Computer room temperature control and energy-saving products are mainly used in data centers, server rooms, communication rooms, high-precision laboratories and other fields to control and adjust the temperature, humidity and cleanliness of equipment rooms or laboratories. From 2015 to 2019, the computer room temperature control business revenue CAGR reached 34.9%. In 2020, with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Internet operators further increased capital expenditures and improved basic computing power to support online education, remote office and other needs, bringing new development opportunities to the IDC industry. In 2020, computer room business revenue increased by 38.7% year-on-year. . In 2021H1, the company's computer room business revenue increased from 50.9% in 2020 to 54.0%, with a gross profit margin of 26.1%.
company's cabinet temperature control products are widely used in wireless communication base stations, smart grid transmission and distribution equipment cabinets at all levels, energy storage power stations, electric vehicle charging piles, ETC gantry systems, intelligent manufacturing equipment and other fields. From 2012 to 2019, due to the rapid growth of other product categories, the revenue share of cabinet temperature control equipment decreased slightly. In 2020, 5G network construction started and energy storage demand was strong. However, due to the sudden demand from ETC bridge applications no longer continuing, the cabinet business revenue growth slowed down to 1.11% year-on-year. Revenue related to energy storage applications grew rapidly in 2021H1, driving the revenue share of cabinet business to increase from 22.2% in 2020 to 29.7%.
Cooltech is the first company in China to focus on the R&D, design and batch application of rail transit air conditioners. In the year of acquisition (2018), it contributed 115 million yuan in revenue to the company. Since then, the company's rail transit business revenue share has continued to rise. At present, the company's rail transit air-conditioning software, hardware, and control systems have all been independently developed. In 2020, the gross profit margin of this business reached 39.60%, ranking second among all the company's businesses.
company's bus air conditioners are mainly used in medium and large electric buses. Its downstream customers include BYD, STO, Nanlong, Yutong and other manufacturers. In addition, the company has also expanded its air-conditioning products for special electric vehicles such as cold chain transport vehicles and heavy-duty trucks (tractors, trucks, dump trucks, etc.) to alleviate the relatively weak demand for passenger car air conditioners. In 2020, bus air-conditioning business revenue increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and gross profit margin increased by 2.3pct year-on-year. In the future, with the improvement of charging piles and other infrastructure, as well as the promotion of new energy electric vehicles and the peak of electric bus renewal, the company's bus air-conditioning business is expected to continue its development trend.
In addition to the above four major fields, the company is developing layout in the fields of compressor , healthy environment control and electronic cooling. Among them, : 1) Healthy environment control products are used to control ambient temperature, humidity, cleanliness, formaldehyde content, etc., and comprehensively purify the air. They are now commercially available in schools, hospitals, elevators and other places in many cities. 2) The compressor business is mainly aimed at new energy buses. Since new energy vehicles are quite different from fuel vehicles in the key aspects of vehicle temperature control and have higher requirements for compressor reliability, the company began to self-develop products suitable for new energy vehicles. Fully enclosed compressor products. 3) The new electronic cooling business is to fill the gap in the company's heat source cooling part in the entire temperature control system layout, and will be the company's core research project in the future.
1.3 Strong revenue growth and good cost control
The compound annual growth rate of operating income from 2012 to 2020 reached 36%. The company's revenue compound growth rate from 2012 to 2020 was 36.2%. In 2021H1, it achieved revenue of 981 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.3%. The year-on-year revenue growth in 2021H1 is at a historically high level. The first reason is that a large number of new data center projects were built under the promotion of the "new infrastructure" policy; the second reason is that the outbreak of the epidemic in the first half of 2020 delayed the new large data center projects that year. After the launch, a large number of computer room temperature control projects were intensively shipped and accepted in 20Q4, and the revenue of some projects was postponed to 21Q1 and Q2 for revenue recognition.
The company’s gross profit margin remains stable. The company's gross profit margin fluctuated around 35% from 2016 to 2019. The first reason for the short-term decline in gross profit margin in 2020 is that the change in accounting standards in 2020 included transportation costs into operating costs, resulting in a 1.6% drop in gross profit margin; the second reason is that commodity prices increased significantly in the second half of 2020. In H1 of 2021, due to intensified competition, the company's gross profit margin declined slightly to 31.4%.
has increased investment in research and development and has achieved effective cost control. Company continues to focus on R&D investment. The amount of R&D expenses has continued to rise since 2018, from 58 million yuan in 2018 to 116 million yuan in 2020, and the R&D expense rate increased from 5.42% to 6.78%. As of the end of 2020, the company had 853 R&D personnel. The company mainly adopts the direct sales model, and the sales expense rate has been stable and declining since 2018. With the improvement of operating efficiency, the administrative expense rate has continued to maintain a downward trend year by year since it dropped significantly in 2017. Since 2012, the financial expense ratio has fluctuated slightly around the average value, reflecting the company's relatively stable financial policy.
has benefited from its good expense control capabilities. The company's net interest rate attributable to its parent company has increased steadily since 2018. In 2020, the company's net interest rate attributable to its parent company was 10.6%, which was basically the same as in 2019.
's net profit attributable to parent companies maintained high growth from 2012 to 2018, with a CAGR of 41.4%. In 2019, the increase in demand for ETC bridges and the new rail transit business drove the net profit attributable to the parent company to grow by as high as 48.5% year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the company's net profit attributable to parent companies dropped to 12.5% year-on-year growth. In the first half of 2021, the strong demand for energy storage and data center temperature control equipment once again drove the company's net profit attributable to the parent to increase year-on-year. In H1 of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent reached 107 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%.
increases working capital investment, cash flow is under pressure. Company is in the stage of business expansion. In order to support the expansion of its business scale, the Company continues to increase its working capital investment. From 2012 to 2020, the company's accounts receivable CAGR reached 35.2%, and the inventory CAGR reached 45.3%. Among them, the compound annual growth rate of the book balance of raw materials in the inventory details account reached 40.4% from 2013 to 2020. Increased capital expenditures have put pressure on cash flow, and the company's net operating cash flow has declined year-on-year in 2020. The company's H1 operating net cash flow in 2021 is negative, which is related to seasonal factors. It is expected that the company's cash flow situation will improve in the second half of the year as the payment collection speed accelerates.
As the scale of operations continues to expand, the company's accounts receivable turnover rate remained at around 2.30 times from 2016 to 2020, demonstrating the company's good supply chain management capabilities (due to changes in accounting standards in 2020, it will be attributed to receivables Part of the due accounts were transferred to contract assets, and the accounts receivable turnover rate was 2.60 times. After excluding this part of the impact, the accounts receivable turnover rate was 2.60 times. Between 2.30 times and 2.40 times). As the company's market share increases and its bargaining power with upstream manufacturers increases, the accounts payable turnover rate decreases year by year, from 3.77 times in 2012 to 2.60 times in 2020. Due to the continuous expansion of sales, the company has increased its inventory, and the inventory turnover rate has dropped from 4.92 times in 2012 to 2.94 times in 2020.
Since 2017, the company's ROE has stabilized between 12.3% and 13.8%. The company's ROE in 2020 was 13.7%, and the company's ROE in H1 in 2021 was 7.5%, an increase of 1.5pct from H1 in 2020.
1.4 The company's financial indicators are at the leading level in the industry
We selected four companies, including Yimikang and Emerson Electric (in 2017, Emerson Electric's Emerson Network Energy was renamed Vertiv), Jialitu , and Songzhi Holdings as comparable companies. company.
company has profound technical strength and rich industry application experience in the field of temperature control. In addition, it continues to expand its business boundaries. Its revenue growth rate over the years has been higher than that of comparable companies. In 2020, the company's revenue growth rate was 13.1pct ahead of the second place among comparable companies. In terms of
's gross profit margin, the company's gross profit margin leads the industry, exceeding that of comparable domestic companies by an average of 3-4pct. Among them, the gross profit margin of the computer room temperature control equipment is at the same level as Vertiv. Except for 2018, the gross profit margin of the computer room temperature control business from 2015 to 2020 is higher than the industry average; the change trend of the gross profit margin of rail air conditioning temperature control equipment is basically consistent with that of comparable companies. On average, it is 1-2 percentage points ahead of comparable companies; after entering the field of passenger car air-conditioning in 2015, the company reused its technology accumulation in the field of cabinet and computer room temperature control. Costs have been reduced rapidly and gross profit margins have continued to increase, gradually surpassing those of comparable companies. Except for 2017 and 2018, the company's net profit margin is higher than the industry average and at the same level as Emerson, demonstrating the company's good expense and cost control capabilities.
Although the asset turnover rate has declined with the expansion of business scale, the company's current asset turnover rate and inventory turnover rate still rank first among comparable companies (due to different domestic and foreign stocking requirements and habits, Emerson's turnover indicators are obvious higher than domestic enterprises and not included in the comparison). In 2020, the company's current asset turnover rate increased to 0.88 times, and the inventory turnover rate was 2.94 times, which is higher than that of comparable domestic companies.
The company's asset-liability ratio is lower than the industry average, remaining below 53%. 's interest coverage ratio is at a relatively high level among comparable companies, reflecting the company's cautious attitude towards debt financing and its stable operating style.
company 's ROE surpassed three comparable companies in 2019, reaching 13.78%, and has continued to lead comparable companies since then. The company's return on invested capital gradually recovered from 2018 to 2020, and currently ranks second among comparable companies.
company has strong R&D strength, excellent product performance, and continuously expanding sales channels. Thanks to the rapid development of the IDC data center and new energy storage industries, the company's short- and medium-term revenue growth is highly certain. The company's planning and layout for electronic cooling, healthy air conditioning, etc. has opened up space for the company's second growth curve and laid a solid foundation for the company's long-term rapid growth.
traces the company's development history. It took 13 years for the revenue scale to exceed the first billion yuan. From 1 billion revenue scale in 2018, it is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2021, which lasted 3 years. With the expansion of scale effect, the company's ability to control the industrial chain has been enhanced. It is expected that after the impact of the increase in bulk raw material prices this year is eliminated, the cost-side advantages will become more obvious in the future, and the company's gross profit margin is expected to continue to be higher than the industry average. The continued decline in
's expense ratio in recent years is mainly due to the integration of sales channels and the enhancement of management capabilities. In the future, it is expected that R&D and financial expense rates will remain stable, and sales and administrative expense rates will continue to decline. It is expected that the company's excellent profitability will continue to lead the industry in the future.
1.5 made two private placements, acquired 100% equity of Shanghai Ketai, and invested in precision temperature control energy-saving equipment
In October 2017, the company issued shares and paid payments to Kangzi Industrial, Beijing Yinlai, Henan Binghong, Shanghai Binghong, and Shanghai Gijing The company purchased 95.1% of its total shares in Shanghai Ketai in cash, with a transaction consideration of RMB 315 million. After the transaction is completed, Invic holds 100% of the equity of Shanghai Ketai. Cooltech was founded in 2002 and focuses on the R&D and manufacturing of high-end transportation temperature control products such as passenger car air conditioners, rail transit train air conditioners, refrigeration and refrigeration units, and special air conditioners. Its independently patented five-in-one electronic control system, dual electronic expansion valve battery thermal management solution, low-temperature heat pump technology, EMC technology, etc. have become technical benchmarks in the new energy vehicle air-conditioning industry. Its new energy bus air-conditioning products are supplied in batches to BYD, Yutong, Nanjing Jinlong, CRRC Times, Xiamen Jinlv , Shanghai Sunward , Shanghai Vientiane, Shanghai Sunlong, Zhongtong Bus, ZTE Guangtong, and Bailujia Waiting for the OEM.
In July 2020, the company once again announced a non-public issuance of no more than 97 million new shares, and the total funds raised (including issuance expenses) will not exceed 600 million yuan. The funds raised this time are intended to be used to invest in the South China Headquarters Base Project (Phase I) of precision temperature control and energy-saving equipment and to supplement working capital. The main purpose of the Precision Temperature Control Energy Saving Equipment South China Headquarters Base Project (Phase I) is to expand the production capacity of computer room and cabinet temperature control products, optimize the manufacturing process, strengthen technology research and development, explore the field of electronic heat dissipation, and realize the compressor (core component of temperature control energy saving equipment , previously purchased from outside), to improve quality control capabilities.
2. The data center market space is growing rapidly, driving the rapid growth of the temperature control business
2.1 Data center energy consumption needs to be reduced urgently, and the market size of computer room temperature control equipment has increased significantly
2.1.1 The number of global data centers is expected to reach 6.16 million in 2025
Domestic data centers are growing rapidly, and the number of data center cabinets will reach a CAGR of 16.7% in the next five years. With the rise of cloud computing, there has been a wave of data center construction around the world. In 2020, the global public cloud computing market size was US$225.3 billion. In the same year, the number of global data centers was 422,000, and the number of ultra-large data centers There are 597 seats. The number of domestic data center cabinets in 2020 will be approximately 2.85 million. According to Kezhi Consulting’s forecast, the number of cabinets in my country will reach 6.16 million by 2025, with a CAGR of 16.7%.
In addition to communication cabinets and energy storage cabinets, cabinet temperature control equipment is also used in edge computing. edge computing includes three forms: cloud edge, edge cloud and edge gateway. At present, communication operators and cloud computing operators are increasing their focus on edge computing and using edge cloud as a strategic solution for multi-cloud deployment. The development trend of multi-cloud deployment will have a profound impact on the architecture and deployment methods of edge computing.
2.1.2 The domestic IDC temperature control system market is growing rapidly and is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan/year in 2021.
Gartner and Bloomberg provide relevant data on the proportion of China's data center capital expenditures and temperature control equipment investment. According to Bloomberg data, servers account for about 65% of data center capital expenditures. Excluding servers, which is the main expenditure, precision air conditioning accounts for about 7% of the remaining data center construction costs. According to Gartner, China's data center capital expenditures (covering investment in servers, operating systems, storage, networks, virtualization software, network security and management software) in 2020 were 250.8 billion yuan. Excluding investment in servers, data centers Capital expenditure is approximately NT$87.8 billion. And Gartner predicts that China's data center capital expenditure will increase by 8.7% in 2021. If it is assumed that data center capital expenditure will increase by 8% every year after 2021, China's data center capital expenditure (excluding servers) will reach 103.1 billion yuan in 2025. estimates from the perspective of China's data center capital expenditure growth that the market size of my country's data center temperature control system will reach 9.1 billion yuan/year in 2025.
Western Securities R&D Center Synergy Research and Dell'Oro provide relevant data on global data center capital expenditures and China's proportion of them. According to Synergy Research, global data center capital spending (excluding servers) was $93 billion in 2019. In Q3 2019, China's ultra-large data centers accounted for 10% of the world's total. Since most of the new data centers are large-scale data centers, we use the number of ultra-large data centers as the proportion of my country's data center capital expenditures in global capital expenditures. , that is, assuming that China’s data center capital expenditure accounts for 10% of global capital expenditure. According to Dell'Oro calculations, global data center capital expenditures will increase by 10% year-on-year in 2020. We assume that the annual data center capital expenditure growth will maintain 10% from 2021 to 2025. Then my country's data center capital expenditures will be 73.1 billion yuan/year in 2021 and 2025. It will reach 107.1 billion yuan/year. calculates the proportion of global data center capital expenditure and China's data center capital expenditure. In 2025, the market size of China's data center temperature control system will reach 7.5 billion yuan/year.
Kezhi Consulting and CDCC respectively provide relevant data from the dimensions of the number of data center cabinets and the thermal density of the cabinets. At present, the mainstream heat density of cabinets in my country is 4-6kW/cabinet. We take the average value of 5kW/cabinet for calculation. At present, the initial investment for the indirect evaporative refrigeration mode is about 5,000 yuan/kW, and the initial investment for the traditional refrigeration mode is about 3,000 yuan/kW. Considering that traditional cooling technology will still dominate in the short term, our initial investment is 3,000 yuan/kW. estimates from the perspective of single-rack temperature control equipment investment that my country's IDC temperature control system market size will be 7.4 billion yuan/year in 2021 and can reach 12.6 billion yuan/year in 2025.
We believe that the domestic IDC temperature control system market size in 2021 will be approximately 5.1-7.4 billion yuan/year, and can reach 7.5-12.6 billion yuan/year in 2025.
2.2 The demand for 5G base stations and energy storage outdoor refrigeration equipment is rising
2.2.1 The growth in the number of 5G base stations and the increase in energy consumption have driven the continuous expansion of the communication cabinet air conditioning market
The number of 5G base stations is more than that of 4G base stations. The signal frequency of 5G is 2-3 times higher than that of 4G, the signal decays faster, and there are more 5G base stations in the same area. At the same time, a certain number of micro base stations will be covered in the blind spot area to ensure the stability of information transmission. Therefore, the total number of 5G base stations will be more than that of 4G base stations.
China Mobile will build a total of 120,000 2.6GHz 5G base stations in 2021, and about 480,000 700MHz base stations in 2021 and 2022 (jointly built with Radio and Television , completed in two years); Telecom and China Unicom will build 3.5GHz and 2.1GHz in 2021 There are a total of 320,000 base stations. In 2022, investment in 5G construction will still be relatively large, and the total number of construction units is expected to be approximately 800,000. According to the forecast of CCID consultant, the number of 5G macro base stations in 2026 will be about 4.75 million, and the number of small base stations will be twice the number of macro base stations, that is, 9.5 million. The total number of macro base stations and small base stations will exceed 14 million.
5G base station has higher integration, larger data transmission volume, and energy consumption that is three times that of 4G base station. According to statistics from the 5G Base Station Energy Saving Technology White Paper (2020), the bandwidth of the 5G NR mainstream base stations used by China Mobile has changed from tens of megabits in 4G to 160/200 megabytes, and the number of transceiver channels has changed from the original 8 channels to 64/32 channels. Power went from over 100 watts to 240/320 watts.
China’s outdoor communication cabinet air conditioner market size will reach 3.3 billion yuan in 2022. communication outdoor cabinet is mainly used for outdoor wireless communication base stations, including 4G, 5G base stations, etc. It is a facility that provides working environment and safety management for outdoor base stations. The increase in operator capital expenditures and the acceleration of 5G base station construction will drive the rapid expansion of the market space for outdoor communication cabinet air conditioners.
2.2.2 The scale of photovoltaic and wind power installations continues to expand, and the market space for energy storage cabinet temperature control equipment increases
In the context of carbon neutrality, the importance of new energy is increasing, and the construction process of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment in various countries is accelerating. Driven by the continued decline in photovoltaic power generation costs, the release of carbon-neutral targets by many countries, and the requirements for green economic recovery, it is expected that the world's annual new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach approximately 210-260GW from 2021 to 2025. According to CPIA data, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2020 was 48.2GW, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%. Due to the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, photovoltaic installed capacity in 2020 was mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. Especially in December, driven by the rush for installation, the installed photovoltaic capacity reached 29.5GW, a record high in a single month. In order to achieve China's goal of non-petrochemical energy accounting for 25% of primary energy consumption in 2030, my country's annual new photovoltaic installed capacity needs to be maintained at 70-90GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
According to BNEF data, global new installed wind power capacity in 2020 was 96.7GW, an increase of 59% from 2019. Among them, China's newly installed wind power capacity was 57.8GW, accounting for 60% of the world's newly installed wind power capacity. According to GWEC (Global Wind Energy Council) forecasts, if the goal of global carbon neutrality is to be achieved in 2050, the world's newly installed wind power capacity will further increase to 160GW by 2025, and by 2030 the world's new installed wind power capacity will further increase to 160GW. 280GW.
The integration of source, grid, load and storage and the promotion of multi-energy complementation of wind, solar, water, fire and storage will become the "highlight during the 14th Five-Year Plan", and the integrated development of new energy and energy storage has become a new trend. According to CPIA statistics, the scale of my country's "two integration" project signings has exceeded 100GW since 2020, of which the number of signed projects from the beginning of 2021 to June 17, 2021 exceeded 62GW. Configuring energy storage equipment on the power generation side can help enterprises achieve peak shaving and valley filling of electric energy, thereby improving power generation efficiency. It can also provide auxiliary services such as frequency regulation, peak regulation, voltage regulation, backup, and black start for the operation of the power system to ensure the stable operation of the power grid. In 2020, more than 20 provinces and cities across the country introduced "strong distribution" policies, requiring new energy power stations to be equipped with 5%-20% of energy storage equipment, and the continuous energy storage time must be 2 hours or more. As the scale of photovoltaic and wind power installations continues to expand, the construction of energy storage power stations has ushered in rapid growth, and the energy storage temperature control system market will usher in development opportunities.
According to GGII data, the unit investment in global energy storage lithium batteries ( lithium iron phosphate ) in 2020 is about 1.0-1.2 yuan/wh, and the cost of lithium batteries accounts for about 50%-60% of the total investment in energy storage systems. In 2020 The annual unit investment in energy storage systems is approximately 2 yuan/wh (2000 yuan/Kwh). According to Wood Mackenzie data, the newly installed capacity of global electrochemical energy storage in 2020 was 10.2Gwh, and the global electrochemical energy storage investment scale in 2020 was 20.4 billion yuan. In addition to lithium batteries, energy storage components also include energy storage inverters (PCS), battery management systems (BMS), and energy management systems (EMS). Among them, PCS cost accounts for about 10%-20%, and EMS/BMS cost accounts for about 3% and 8% respectively. Then the investment amount of PCS/EMS/BMS/other units in 2020 is 300/60/160/380 yuan/Kwh respectively.
Forecast of global energy storage installed capacity from 2021 to 2025: According to Wood Mackenzie data, the new installed capacity of global electrochemical energy storage in 2021 will be 20.4Gwh, and will reach 46.7Gwh in 2025, with a CAGR of 23.0%.
Global energy storage system unit price forecast from 2021 to 2025: combined with BNEF forecast, we assume that the global energy storage lithium battery unit investment from 2021 to 2025 will decrease by 30%/25%/20%/15%/10% respectively, PCS unit The investment amount dropped by 20%/15%/10%/10%/10% respectively, BMS and EMS The unit investment amount maintained an annual decrease of 5%, and the annual decrease of unit investment amount in other parts was 3%. Taken together, the global unit investment in energy storage systems from 2021 to 2025 is 1588/1338/1181/1074/999 yuan/Kwh respectively.
Forecast of the installed capacity and investment per unit of installed capacity of comprehensive energy storage systems, we estimate that the global investment in electrochemical energy storage systems from 2021 to 2025 will be approximately 324/430/448/439/46.7 billion yuan.
According to CNESA data, the investment scale of temperature control systems accounts for approximately 4% of energy storage systems. The global investment scale of energy storage temperature control equipment in 2021 will be approximately 1.30 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 9.5% from 2021 to 2025.
2.2.3 Edge computing is in the ascendant, driving the demand for cabinet temperature control equipment to accelerate growth
In addition to communication cabinets and energy storage cabinets, cabinet temperature control equipment is also used in edge computing. Edge computing includes three forms: cloud edge, edge cloud and edge gateway. At present, communication operators and cloud computing operators are increasing their focus on edge computing and using edge cloud as a strategic solution for multi-cloud deployment. The development trend of multi-cloud deployment will have a profound impact on the architecture and deployment methods of edge computing.
2.3 There is huge room for growth in the sales of new energy buses, and the demand for bus air-conditioning systems will increase
According to data from the Passenger Association, affected by the reduction of subsidies, the sales of new energy buses in China have declined in recent years. In 2020, the sales volume of China's new energy buses was 61,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. According to terminal licensing information, China's new energy bus sold a total of 21,100 units from January to July 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. From January to July 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy highway buses in China were 3,893 units, a year-on-year increase of 356.9%, and the growth rate was much higher than that of new energy buses. As the largest market segment in the passenger car market, highway buses are expected to become the growth point of new energy buses in the future. As national policies continue to promote the electrification of buses and coaches, and the cost of electric vehicles continues to decline in the future, the impact of subsidy reduction will gradually diminish. It is expected that new energy buses will still have large room for growth in the future.
There are obvious differences between the air conditioning system of new energy buses and the air conditioning system of traditional fuel buses. The refrigeration methods of new energy buses mainly include thermoelectric refrigeration, electric compressor refrigeration, waste heat refrigeration, etc. New energy bus air conditioning system technology needs to use energy more efficiently and effectively improve energy utilization. The development of the new energy bus industry will drive the demand for new energy bus air conditioning systems.
2.4 Rail transit is in the process of expansion, and the market space for rail air conditioning is expanding.
Rail transit investment (state railway investment + urban rail investment) is an important part of infrastructure investment. From 2016 to 2020, China's rail transit investment accounted for 7.7%-9.7% of infrastructure investment. According to data from the Forward-looking Economist, the investment scale of urban rail transit increased year by year from 2014 to 2020. In 2020, investment in urban rail transit in mainland China reached 628.6 billion yuan, a record high. In the future, as the scale of lines under construction and planned in my country further expands, investment in rail transit will continue to grow.
my country's urban rail transit is still in a period of rapid development. As of the end of 2020, 45 cities had opened a total of 7,978.19 kilometers of urban rail transit operating lines, of which subways accounted for 79% and the operating lines were 6,311 kilometers long. In 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a new round of urban rail transit construction plans for four cities: Xuzhou Phase II, Hefei Phase III, Jinan Phase II, and Ningbo Phase III, with a total length of 455.36 kilometers and a total investment of 336.423 billion yuan. In addition, four urban subway construction plans have been approved, including Xiamen Phase II, Shenzhen Phase IV, Fuzhou Phase II, and Nanchang Phase II, involving a total of 132.59 kilometers of new project length and an additional planned investment of 134.563 billion yuan. In 2020, my country added 1,122.19 kilometers of new subway lines, and both the new lines and the cumulative length of operating lines hit record highs. It is expected that in the future, with the construction of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the promotion of new infrastructure, the scale of urban rail transit in my country will continue to grow rapidly.
The rail air conditioning market has exceeded 10 billion yuan.The rail transit air conditioning system is one of the important equipment systems in urban rail transit. It is responsible for controlling the air temperature, humidity, flow rate, pressure and air quality in the internal space of urban rail transit.
3. R&D and technical strength ensure the company’s development, and product advantages continue to expand
3.1 In 2019, the computer room temperature control market share ranked second in the country, and the performance of each business product is industry-leading
3.1.1. Computer room temperature control occupies the leading position, and energy-saving products have repeatedly won bids
In the field of computer room temperature control, the company is a leading domestic brand, which can provide heat sources It is the manufacturer with the largest layout span in the industry, offering a full chain of products from side cooling to external cold source cooling. The company's computer room temperature control products and solutions include CyberMate computer room dedicated air conditioners & laboratory dedicated air conditioners, iFreecooling multi-link pump circulation natural cooling units, XRow inter-row air conditioners, XFlex modular indirect evaporative cooling units, and XStorm direct evaporative high-efficiency air wall cooling system, XSpace micro-module data center, XRack micro-module cabinet solution, XGlacier liquid cooling temperature control system, etc. Among them, the XFlex unit can reduce the PUE to 1.15, and the XStorm system can achieve a PUE lower than 1.1, with significant energy saving effects.
Since 2021, the company has won bids for multiple data center construction and air conditioning acquisition projects such as China Mobile, Alibaba, Tencent, and China Telecom. The winning bids and subsequent delivery of these major projects will provide a solid foundation for the development of the company's computer room temperature control business and consolidate the company's market position. According to ICT Research data, the company's domestic computer room temperature control equipment market share increased from 7.5% in 2016 to 10% in 2019. In 2019, the company's market share ranked second in the country.
Indirect evaporative cooling is currently the most effective natural cold source utilization solution, which can effectively realize the utilization of natural cold sources, thereby reducing the PUE value of the data center. Compared with traditional chilled water systems, the indirect evaporative cooling solution can reduce cooling energy consumption by about 30%. In recent years, indirect evaporative cooling technology has gained increasing recognition, and the market penetration rate has increased year by year.
company leads the application and promotion of evaporative cooling technology in the industry, occupying the advantages of first mover in the market, leading technology, and large-scale commercial use. The sales revenue of evaporative cooling products has accounted for an increasing share of the company's computer room temperature control business year by year in recent years. The company continues to optimize product design and supply chain construction, improve production efficiency and the proportion of self-made costs, and enhance the competitiveness of the company's products. In 2020, the company successively launched three major technology integration products that apply evaporative cooling and other technologies for high-energy-efficiency cooling in large data centers. The three major products are XEC3 high-efficiency composite evaporative cooling chilled water system, XMint high-efficiency evaporative composite multi-unit air conditioning system and XSource evaporative cooling integrated cold source solution. The company's products serve high-quality customers such as ByteDance, China Unicom, State Grid, Tencent, Kuaishou, Meituan, and Microsoft.
With the rapid increase in the proportion of AI computing power in the future, the heat density of data centers will continue to increase. The liquid cooling solution can support high heat density deployment of more than 40kW in a single cabinet, and the cooling energy efficiency is greatly improved, helping data centers to further reduce PUE. Mainstream server manufacturers have successively launched liquid cooling products, and CPU and GPU manufacturers have also begun to get involved in the field of liquid cooling. The company is actively deploying liquid cooling technology in an all-round way. As for the water-cooling plate solution, the company has cooperated with a number of leading companies to varying degrees and successfully realized the practical application of the liquid cooling solution. Compared with traditional air-cooling solutions, products such as water-cooling plates and quick connectors installed inside servers will bring considerable market growth to the company in the future. The company has simultaneously extended water-cooling plate technology and product applications to digital mining machines, power electronics cooling and other fields, gaining broad development space for future business expansion.
3.1.2 Energy storage temperature control products have increased in volume, injecting strong growth momentum into the cabinet business
The company's cabinet temperature control products include AC power supply compressor air conditioners, DC power supply compressor air conditioners, compressor air conditioners and heat pipe integrated machines, heat pipe heat exchangers and other cabinets Temperature control and energy-saving products are mainly used in wireless communication base stations, smart grid power transmission and distribution equipment cabinets at all levels, energy storage power stations, electric vehicle charging piles, and ETC Outdoor cabinets or containers such as gantry systems and smart manufacturing equipment.
In the field of wireless communications, base stations have been upgraded from 4G to 5G, and the heat generation and heat density have increased, placing higher requirements on equipment heat dissipation, and the demand for cabinet temperature control equipment has further increased. At the same time, in the context of the "double carbon" goal, the construction of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind energy has accelerated. Relevant industry policies require matching a certain proportion of energy storage systems. The construction of energy storage power stations has ushered in sustained and rapid growth. Energy storage power stations There is an urgent need for temperature control and energy-saving solutions. Relying on its solid technological innovation capabilities, excellent product quality, and competitive product prices, the company's cabinet cooling products maintain a significant leading industry position in communications, energy storage, ETC and other industries. The company launched a series of water-cooled units in 2020 and began to apply them in batches in various energy storage application scenarios at home and abroad. From January to December 2020, the operating income from energy storage applications was nearly 100 million yuan. With the company's domestic and foreign energy storage industry customers As orders were shipped one after another, operating income from the cabinet temperature control business grew rapidly. From January to June 2021, the company's total revenue from the cabinet business was 292 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.2%, of which operating revenue related to energy storage applications was approximately 150 million yuan. The downstream application fields served by
company have a wide range of scenarios and diverse needs. The cabinet temperature control business is highly customizable and requires rapid response from R&D and supply chains. The company has built a business process and resource platform, forming important "soft power" to effectively respond to customized needs. The company's downstream customers include Huawei, ZTE, FiberHome, Raycus, Mindray, Sungrow, BYD, Eltek and other well-known domestic and foreign equipment manufacturers in various industries. It is expected that the market demand for energy storage application supporting equipment will continue to increase throughout 2021. Combined with the peak of 5G construction in the second half of the year, the company's cabinet temperature control business is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2021. At the same time, the company's application industry distribution in this business line will also be more Diverse and balanced.
3.1.3 With the help of Cooltech, it has become a mainstream supplier of passenger car air conditioners, and its business is currently expanding to cold chain logistics and heavy trucks.
The company has entered the field of electric buses since 2013, completed the development and design of the first batch of products in 2014, and achieved mass sales in 2015 and entered BYD and other mainstream bus manufacturers, and has become one of the mainstream vehicle air-conditioning suppliers for the electric transformation of Shenzhen buses. In 2018, the company merged the electric bus air-conditioning and small-volume fuel bus air-conditioning businesses of Shanghai Cooltech, and carried out business integration and layout expansion, further strengthening the overall strength of this business.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice on our part. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original report.)
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank official website].
