In early Asian trading on Wednesday (August 10), Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was trading around 106.30. The market is waiting for the upcoming U.S. CPI data. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at an aggressive pace in September Provide clues; Gold prices rose on Tuesday, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar; Oil prices traded at the 90 mark, with intraday intraday moves amid concerns that an economic slowdown could reduce demand and the suspension of part of the Russia-to-Europe Druzhba oil pipeline via Ukraine Oil export news collectively affects the market.
In terms of commodity closing, Brent crude oil futures fell 0.4%, settling at $96.31 a barrel, and U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.3%, settling at $90.50 a barrel. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.4%, settling at $1,812.3 an ounce.
US stock market closing situation, Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 0.18% to 32774.41 points; S&P 500 Index fell 0.42% to 4122.47 points; Nasdaq Index fell 1.19% to 12493.93 points.
Wednesday preview
html China’s CPI data will be released at 49:30, German CPI data will be released at 14:00, and Evans, the Federal Reserve, will discuss the US economy and monetary policy at 23:00.
Global market conditions at a glance
The Nasdaq index of U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday after Micron Technology 's poor financial forecast pulled down chip manufacturers and technology stocks . Investors awaited U.S. inflation data, which may lead to further tightening by the Federal Reserve. efforts to curb inflation.
After last week's explosive jobs report, Wednesday's high inflation data may prevent the Federal Reserve from slowing the pace of raising interest rates soon, hampering the market's rebound from mid-June lows. Traders see a 68.5% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September, which would be its third consecutive major rate hike.
Unit labor costs accelerated in the second quarter, data showed on Tuesday, suggesting strong wage pressures will help keep inflation rising, adding to concerns about a tight labor market and runaway inflation. The Labor Department said unit labor costs, the price of labor per unit of output, increased at a rate of 10.8%, compared with a 12.7% increase in the first quarter.
RockefellerGlobalFamilyOffice chief investment officer Jimmy Chang said: "Judging from last Friday's employment data, we still see wage pressure increasing."
Chang remains cautious about the market outlook. "I don't think this is going to be a set of numbers that will change the Fed's policy course," he said. Friday's jobs data undermined some of the bullish arguments that the Fed would "pivot" to a neutral policy stance followed by a rate cut early next year.
Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock think tank, said that the current inflation is mainly driven by supply, so the traditional central bank's approach of raising interest rates to suppress demand will not be as effective as in previous cycles.
Boivin told the Reuters Global Markets Forum, "We will see central banks be surprised by inflation. In this context, they will have to sound hawkish."
U.S. President Biden signed a deal on Tuesday item Landmark bill to provide $52.7 billion in subsidies for U.S. semiconductor production and research U.S. vaccine maker Novavax shares plunged 29.6% as the company cut its annual revenue forecast amid a global supply glut and weak demand. Sales of its new crown vaccine in the United States are not expected to increase this year.
Precious Metals
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, helped by a weaker dollar, as market participants awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the path of tightening policy by the Federal Reserve. Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that gold is currently benefiting from the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the situation between Russia and Ukraine, while the focus is on the situation of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday.
U.S. CPI data for July will be released on Wednesday. A survey released by the New York Fed on Monday showed that U.S. consumers' inflation expectations for one and three years fell sharply in July. Analysts polled by Reuters expect annual U.S. inflation to slow to 8.7% in July from 9.1% in June.
Kenneth Broux, currency strategist at Société Générale in London, said: "I'm a little worried about inflation on Wednesday.Markets have been faltering all year and if we witness strong core inflation data, which would confirm expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike in September, it would be too early to bet against the dollar as the Fed may have to do more. Clifford Bennett, chief economist at
ACYSecurities, said: "Investors understand that the U.S. and global economies are facing significant challenges, but focus is on the length of time that raising interest rates will have an impact on the market. If U.S. inflation data for July is unexpectedly weak, it could become a catalyst for a sharp surge in gold prices. "
Crude oil
Oil prices ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with a see-saw intraday session, as concerns that an economic slowdown could reduce demand combined with news that the Russia-Europe Druzhba oil pipeline through Ukraine has suspended some oil exports. Due to concerns about an economic recession. May be shaved Oil prices have been under pressure for weeks
Ukraine has halted the flow of Russian oil to southern Europe since August 4, Russia's Transneft said on Tuesday, as Western sanctions prevented it from receiving transit from Russia. Fee.Dru Traffic on the southern section of the ZHBA pipeline was affected, while oil on the northern section to Poland and Germany was not disrupted.
Oil prices initially moved higher on the above pipeline news and expectations that such disruptions would tighten supply, but as concerns over the Details of the cause of the disruption become clearer, and price action reverses .
Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank, said in a report, "Given that it is not the Russian side that shuts down the pipeline, but the Ukrainian side, this will be a situation that will be resolved sooner or later."
Last-ditch efforts by European countries to revive the Iran nuclear deal have weighed on oil prices. The European Union on Monday presented a "final" text to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, awaiting approval from Washington and Tehran . A senior EU official said a final decision was expected in "very, very short weeks"
U.S. crude and distillate inventories increased last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). Decline. As of August 5 Crude oil inventories rose by about 2.2 million barrels during the week, while distillate inventories rose by about 1.4 million barrels.
FX
The safe-haven dollar was higher on Tuesday, recovering from earlier losses in the session, at a critical level. Ahead of U.S. inflation data , risk appetite has declined, and these data may provide clues as to how aggressively the Fed will raise interest rates in September.
Earlier in the session, the dollar fell in quiet summer trading, but then reversed course, and the U.S. dollar fell. Stocks fell, weighed down by profit warnings, global Regarding global inflation concerns and data showing that U.S. non-farm productivity fell sharply in the second quarter, Juan Perez, head of trading at
MonexUSA, said when talking about the safe-haven appeal of the U.S. dollar, "There are many global problems and we cannot ignore these problems, which has brought great challenges to the global economy. "Economic growth has put a lot of downward pressure on economic growth," traders' main focus will be on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to be released on Wednesday. The report is expected to show that after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June and July, After 75 basis points, inflation at a multi-decade high eased in July. tml3
But data on Friday showed U.S. job creation far exceeded expectations and wages were still rising strongly, fueling bets in money markets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at its September 20-21 meeting. Futures trend shows, trading Economists believe there is about a two-thirds chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in September, Oanda senior market analyst Edward Moya said: "We have been seeing hotter inflation data than expected, and if this happens again, the market is not. Be prepared to face it. "If that happens, the euro will test parity against the dollar again," he said of the possibility of further dollar strength. ”
Economists polled by Reuters expect annual U.S. inflation to be 8.7% in July, relatively high but down from 9.1% in June. The Fed’s target inflation rate is 2%. Concern for recent aggressive interest rate hikes Enhanced expectations have pushed the yield on short-term government bonds to be further higher than long-term government bonds.
The two-year/10-year Treasury yield curve is already at its most inverted state in 20 years, a reliable indicator that the economy is heading into recession.
Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho Bank, said: "The U.S. bond yield curve is inverted, suggesting that a recession is coming. But the stock market seems to think that the Fed will stop raising interest rates soon and start cutting interest rates in 2023. I think that is about to happen. Published htm The l1CPI data will suggest that the Fed is not stopping, which in my view points to weaker stocks ahead, which will limit any decline in the dollar in the coming months. "However, the safe-haven status makes the dollar's reaction a bit difficult to predict, especially. It comes at a time when growth and geopolitical concerns are intertwined.
Sterling fell 0.12% after Bank of England deputy governor Ramsden said the Bank of England may have to further raise interest rates to combat inflationary pressures that are taking root in the British economy.
Market News
Mexico faces the highest inflation level in 21 years
The Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) released data that in July 2022, Mexico’s national consumer price index increased by 0.74% from the previous month, while the annual total inflation The rate is 8.15%, which is also the highest value in 21 years since 2000.
The Ukrainian State Nuclear Power Company warned of the possible consequences of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant accident
The Ukrainian State Nuclear Power Company issued a warning on the 9th that Ukrainian experts have assessed the possible consequences of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant accident, such as Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant A catastrophic event The consequences of an accident could be 10 times that of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. Experts use Chernobyl accident consequences as a comparison. In the event of a nuclear disaster, the area of the potential exclusion zone would reach 30,000 square kilometers (equivalent to 10 Chernobyl exclusion zones), and the Zaporozhye area would actually be completely uninhabitable for living and farming. At the same time, the potential pollution area is as high as 2 million square kilometers. The degree of contamination in Ukraine and other areas of Europe, Russia, Belarus will depend on the direction of the wind.
Russia announced a temporary ban on the import of Moldova plant products
Russian Satellite Network quoted an official from the Russian agricultural quarantine department on the 9th as saying that Russia has included 31 regions in Moldova on the "blacklist" that prohibits the import of plant products. The official said, "Russia has repeatedly found dangerous quarantine objects in Moldova's plant products. The Russian quarantine department has also notified the Moldavian side on this issue many times." (CCTV News)
The UK may plan to implement power restrictions in January next year
The UK plans to implement power restrictions for several days on industries and even households during the cold winter days when there may be a shortage of natural gas supplies. The UK could face an electricity shortfall of one-sixth of peak demand, even after emergency coal plants come online, according to the government's latest "worst-case scenario" forecasts. Under this outlook, below-average temperatures and reduced electricity imports from Norway and France could leave the UK with four days in January when emergency measures need to be activated to conserve gas. The UK government's Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The EU agreement to reduce natural gas consumption officially comes into effect.
The agreement on reducing natural gas consumption reached by EU member states last month officially came into effect on the 9th. According to the EU, this move is intended to prepare for possible disruptions in Russian natural gas supplies. Under the agreement reached on July 26, EU member states agreed to reduce natural gas demand based on average consumption over the past five years for the period from August 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, subject to measures of their choice. 15% reduction. Data from the European Commission show that to achieve the above goals, EU member states must save a total of 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and Germany, a "big gas user", should save about 10 billion cubic meters of gas.(CCTV)
Russian National Petroleum Pipeline Transport Company: Oil transportation through Ukraine has been interrupted
On the 9th local time, Russian National Petroleum Pipeline Transport Company (Transneft) issued a statement stating that since August 4, Ukrainian pipeline operators Ukrtransnafta suspended transit services for Russian natural gas. The statement stated that Russia is still transmitting natural gas to Poland and Germany through the northern branch of the "Friendship" (transliteration: Druzhba) pipeline. The southern branch line (the pipeline that carries natural gas to Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia via Ukraine) has suspended gas supply.
Ukrainian officials: Ukraine has exported more than 370,000 tons of agricultural products through the "Grain Corridor"
The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on the 9th that the Ukrainian Seaport Administration announced on the same day that during the 9 days of operation of the "Grain Corridor", more than 370,000 tons Ukrainian agricultural products have been exported from Ukrainian seaports. According to reports, the grain corridor has been in operation for nine days so far, and 12 ships have left Ukrainian ports, exporting more than 370,000 tons of Ukrainian agricultural products to seven countries around the world. In addition, a ship entered the port of Chernomorsk in southern Ukraine for loading. Ukraine plans to transship 3 million tons of agricultural products every month through the port in the Odessa region.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its willingness to provide maximum assistance to the International Atomic Energy Agency 's visit to Zaporozhye.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 9th local time, emphasizing that Russia had discussed atomic energy with the management of the International Atomic Energy Agency Secretariat on June 3. The route and timetable for the Agency's international delegation to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant were fully agreed upon. The inspection team is expected to be composed of well-known experts from many countries, and is planned to be led by Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Russia hopes that under the current situation, the Secretary-General of the United Nations will fully realize his responsibilities and will not obstruct the mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency through his department of the Secretariat or other departments of the United Nations mechanism. Russia is willing to provide as much help as possible to solve all organizational problems.
Japan’s population has been declining for 13 consecutive years. Tokyo’s population has declined for the first time in 26 years
According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK), as of January 1, 2022, Japan’s total population was 123,223,561 people, and the population has been declining for 13 consecutive years. At the same time, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, Tokyo's population has declined for the first time in 26 years.
This article comes from Huitong.com
