This weekend, the "new cycle" view of a certain macro "guru" has once again become the focus of heated discussion in the market. Some people even ridiculed that it only took the "guru" two months for China's economy to hit the bottom for the second time, recession and deflation,

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This weekend, the "new cycle" view of a certain macro chief "leader" once again became the focus of heated discussion in the market. Some people even Ridiculing, it only took the "leader" two months for China's economy to hit a second bottom, recession and deflation, then inaction, the economy and the stock market were L, and now a new cycle is emerging. The world's second largest economy is not L-shaped, but LV.

The opinions of macro analysts who are supposed to be serious can change in a day, which also makes many analysts who are doing research seriously unable to sit still.

GF Macro Guo Lei is a macro analyst who pays attention to data. At the same time, he also pays more attention to some "micro observations" than some macro analysts:

"Methodologically speaking, mean reversion is the source of all empirical research. One, the so-called 'period' is essentially a mean reversion (mean reversion). This macro-mean reversion phenomenon is a combination of a series of micro processes, such as from demand contraction to leverage ratio adjustment, from micro leverage ratio bottoming to capital turnover rate recovery, from capital turnover rate recovery to ROE and ROIC repair , from ROE repair to capital expenditure recovery, from capital expenditure recovery to demand transmission along the industrial chain, from demand The demand is passed to raw materials for re-pricing...

Therefore, to explain the cycle, essentially must understand that it is the sequential mean recovery of all micro-processes, and cannot fall into some silly and empty concepts and slogans , which will also The understanding of cycles goes to extremes; to refute cycles, we cannot use "it is still investment-driven", "it is still those industries", "it is still not driven". There is such a specious reason as "clearing out". The cycle itself is just a cyclical event. It does not mean that the world will be reborn. Completely two dimensions.

Wang Jun, Chief Strategy Officer of Hua Chuang, also believes that there is no so-called new cycle , there are three basic backgrounds for the short-term start-up that started in 2016: The first is the suppression of total demand by the contradictions between high-level cycles and the economic structure in the transition period. The second is the continued decline in both volume and price since the high point of this mid-cycle, which has brought about the reshaping of the cost system and production capacity pattern at the micro enterprise level. The third is the macro Li Lifeng, chief executive of China National Financial Strategy Group, also believes that weak demand stimulation and administrative overcapacity reduction policies are in parallel. tml5 Domestic economy "There is no new cycle, only old stories" : The stock price performance of "resource cycle products" in the A-share market is mainly due to policy factors. One is environmental protection verification, and the other is supply-side reform , both of which are in Talk about the logic of "supply contraction" rather than the start of a new cycle on the demand side

but for html. 4 This industrial product cycle believes that the most profound one is Zhongtai Steel Duhui . He once wrote in the second quarter strategy: Industrial companies have made sufficient adjustments to the supply side in recent years, profits are still at a high level, and there are assets. The possibility of re-expansion after four years of balance sheet repair is expected to further repair corporate balance sheets and bring about positive impacts on the economy. Changes in long-term expectations have prompted companies to gain momentum for re-expansion.

From Duhui's point of view, we can naturally conclude that this round of rising cyclical products is the market elimination (supply side) that companies have actively chosen after experiencing a long downturn in the past few years. Fully adjusted), resulting in today's cyclical recovery rather than the so-called "new cycle"

" mainly comes from the power of cycles, which comes from a natural force. Everyone knows that China has had the problem of overcapacity in industries since 2009. The PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, etc. I mentioned are the industries with the most overcapacity. But everyone has forgotten that these industries have probably been losing money for five consecutive years. above.At the micro level, if an industry has suffered losses for five consecutive years, do you think these entrepreneurs will remain indifferent? Would he sit there and wait to die? So the actual situation is not what everyone imagines. At the micro level, there have actually been very big changes. This change is that you think there are still many companies in it and there is excess production capacity, but in fact there are not that many, because They've all died in the past three or four years. "

In addition, Wang Qi, investment director of CITIC Construction Investment Fund, wrote in the PPT: From 2016 to 2017, corporate profits and cash flow both improved, but they actively deleveraged under the loose monetary environment. Wang Qi used a micro perspective to observe the production capacity cycle The impact on leverage is significantly stronger than that of monetary policy.

Therefore, the long-term industry downturn has caused many problems. The multi-cycle industry itself is clearing, and industry concentration has increased significantly. As a result, the cycle has recovered during this period. This is not what some macro analysts call " new cycle " . They may just not pay attention to micro data. Observation, ignoring the ability of entrepreneurs to proactively respond to different market situations, thereby ensuring that enterprises can survive or survive in difficult environments. Feet vote, these are also the influencing factors that constitute the cycle and the operating rules of the economy itself. Perhaps this itself is also the charm of the cycle.

Finally, I will end with a comment from Duhui Weekend’s circle of friends:

Some investors are always entangled in this. The long-term problem is that the cycle will eventually be disillusioned, but the cycle is just like Zhou Tianwang said: The cycle will eventually be disillusioned. annihilation, but before that we will still experience Kang Bo. Although reincarnation is eternity, the secret of cycle is the pursuit of process . Therefore, the core of cycle research is the description of process. If it is not the cherishment of process, A little knowledge of cycles can only lead to eternal ruin

*Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice