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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for a long time. The current situation in Ukraine is quite bad. Europe has suspended military aid to Ukraine. Because EU military assistance has reached its limit. The battlefield is a bottomless pit. No matter it is a middle power like France or the United Kingdom, it cannot bear the investment of hundreds of millions of dollars in materials a day. Other small countries are even less likely to provide more help. Countries like Poland can only provide some old Soviet and Russian equipment to Ukraine to resist the Russian attack.
(Ukraine currently pins its hopes entirely on foreign aid. However, the 8 billion euros provided by the EU have not been received at all. Ukraine now has a monthly fiscal deficit of 5 billion U.S. dollars. In this bottomless pit, few people are willing to continue investing. Money)
The effect of stopping military assistance is very obvious. Ukraine suffered an air raid by the Russian Air Force on its Independence Day. The remnants of the Ukrainian army in the urban areas of Kharkiv and Donetsk are threatened by bombs, but the Ukrainian Air Force rarely has air defense countermeasures capabilities. They can only deploy field air defense systems to resist the threat of Russian air strikes, because the Ukrainian fighter planes lack spare parts and ammunition. There is very little media news about the Ukrainian army's MiG-29 fighter jets going into action. Even in the Nikolayev and Kherson areas, there has always been a tug of war between the two sides. The so-called Ukrainian army's major counteroffensive campaign did not occur at all. In fact, only a small group of Ukrainian army units carried out harassment operations in the Kherson area.
He is unable to launch a major battle because his heavy equipment cannot be assembled in groups. The Russian army, which has the initiative on the battlefield, will immediately call in artillery fire and fighter planes for bombing once it discovers the opponent's accumulation of heavy equipment. Under such circumstances, can light infantry win a major offensive battle? So EU officials said one thing: If Ukraine does not have a large counterattack capability, then the EU group of countries will have to reconsider military assistance to Ukraine. The implication is to abandon the other party because they cannot continue to spend money to fill this hole, especially when they are desperate about the current situation.
This is like a cancer patient in the hospital. He knows that he is in an advanced stage and even has no hope of fighting; but he still desperately invests his last money in a gamble to try to prolong his life. The Americans are still the last bets in this war: U.S. President Biden recently announced a further $3 billion in aid to Ukraine. Because the United States does not dare to give up this Eastern European bridgehead easily after giving up in Europe. Only by keeping Ukraine can it continue to cause trouble for Russia. However, no one pointed out that this was just a drop in the bucket. This astronomical data was simply dismissive in the eyes of Russians : foreign media pointed out that the Russian military’s highest expenditure in one day reached 900 million U.S. dollars, and the United States gave 3 billion U.S. dollars worth of military aid in just one week will be evaporated within. The script here is like the movie "Liberation of ". The Russians have been preparing war funds since the Crimea incident. They have enough patience to exhaust their opponents. Once the heavy artillery, aircraft, and armored vehicles transported from the United States are discovered by the Russian army, they will be attacked intensively. Hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid are consumed very quickly here.
(The United States is still taking a big gamble. He promised to continue to provide US$3 billion in military assistance. But the price is to hope that the Russian army will continue to bleed. If it cannot do this, the US aid will also stop)
The previous battles between major powers have been fierce. It is national strength. Ukraine abolished its martial arts after the collapse of the Soviet Union. His defense resources were sold off by corrupt government officials, and the money fell into private pockets; the defense industry stagnated, with almost no new orders to support it; the military's combat effectiveness was declining, and it did not even have enough heavy equipment to arm itself.Facing an opponent like the Russian army, Ukraine can only rely entirely on foreign aid. Now even the resource paths for foreign aid are almost exhausted.
(After exhausting its own resources, it cannot wait for foreign aid. Ukraine’s heavy equipment is exhausted and the soldiers are exhausted. Only light infantry cannot resist successfully.)
Ukraine is a medium-sized country in Europe. . Most of the country is plain, and these areas are easy to attack and difficult to defend. Its territory is large enough, but its military strength is not enough to protect every place (as mentioned before, the combat effectiveness of the army has declined, and the number of soldiers is insufficient). So his defensive layout is like a fishing net, with gaps everywhere. In the early days, the Russian army took advantage of this gap and used interleaved tactics to capture territory. With Ukraine's strength, it cannot engage in long-term confrontation with Russia, so it can only work hard on publicity and propaganda to win sympathy internationally; increase unity and cohesion internally; and then win foreign aid to continue the fight. But the final outcome is not decided by Ukraine, but depends on the game between Europe, the United States and the Russians. In other words, Ukraine is just a pawn, and it may be abandoned by the Americans at any time.
(Europe and the United States hope to copy the Afghan model in Ukraine, but it is different here. The Russians have a popular base in the Eastern Ukraine region. On the contrary, Ukraine is in Eastern Ukraine It’s a mess)
Europeans and Americans here hope to copy the pattern of the first Afghan war: the Soviet Union was stuck in a quagmire war in Afghanistan. The European and American groups continued to transfuse blood to the Afghan guerrillas, and then forced the Soviets to consume their strength, and finally retreated and soon became disintegrated the country. Therefore, military assistance from the Western Group is extremely important to Ukraine! Now everyone can see that Europe and the United States want to treat the situation in Ukraine as if the Soviet Union invaded Ukraine, but is the situation the same as it was then? The answer is: completely different.
First of all, fighting in Afghanistan was completely in unfamiliar enemy territory. Except for a few supporters of the red regime, basically the entire territory was against the Soviets. The Soviet army only occupied large cities along the road transportation lines, but the vast rural areas have always been in the hands of the Afghan guerrillas. The Soviet army could not obtain supplies in Afghanistan, so it had to transport logistical support materials from its own country through transportation lines. The guerrillas carried out sneak attacks on the lines for the Soviets every day. In addition, most countries in the world sympathize with Afghanistan. These countries continue to send weapons and money to Afghanistan, and Westerners are still sending military instructors. Before receiving support from Afghanistan, they could only rely on old-fashioned rifles left over from the British colonial era to resist. The situation at that time had reached a point where there was no need to delay. The Afghans had retreated to the northern mountains and were about to be wiped out. But the assistance from Europe and the United States arrived in time. They brought AK rifles, heavy machine guns and rocket launchers suitable for all ages, as well as Stinger missiles to deal with Soviet aircraft; bundles of US dollars and funds from Middle Eastern countries support. Relying on these, the guerrillas gradually encroached on the Soviet strongholds.
But Ukraine is completely different. The Eastern Ukraine region was originally Russian territory, but it was artificially merged with Western Ukraine due to historical and political reasons. There are many Russian-speaking people here. They have always been civilians of Russian origin. This place is naturally pro-Russian. In addition, since Ukraine is engaged in the neo-Nazi movement, the originally peaceful region of Eastern Ukraine has been turned into a mess by these thugs. Everyone is eager to get out of this sea of misery as soon as possible. In other words, the Russian army has a popular base here. On the contrary, the Ukrainian army has little popular support in Eastern Ukraine. Their guerrillas can only operate alone here with few people to cooperate. If the Russian army's supplies do not go deep into the Western Ukraine region, there will be no big problem, because its rear lines are all in its own territory ( Belarus and the Russian border and Crimean Peninsula . It has eaten the two Eastern Ukraine regions. The Republic can also ensure the safety of transportation routes.
If the Ukrainian guerrillas operate here, not only will they have a small chance of success, but they will also be discovered and exposed by the public.Foreign aid is not acceptable, because during the Afghanistan period, the Western economy was generally strong and had enough financial and material resources to support a guerrilla war. But now Europe and the United States are still struggling to support themselves under the epidemic, and even energy needs to be provided by the Russians. How much GDP financial resources can be provided to Ukraine in this case? Not to mention that Ukraine is simply a bottomless pit model. What is played there is mainly a regular army showdown, not a guerrilla warfare model. Half of the world's camps are also maintaining a neutral attitude (due to political considerations, these countries cannot openly support Russia, but secretly they are absolutely disgusted with the Yankees).
(It is still a bit troublesome to assist Ukraine. It is best to use the original Soviet equipment, because the Ukrainian army is used to using Russian equipment. This Mi-17 is an example, but as the original Soviet equipment is exhausted, It can only be replaced by Western equipment. The Ukrainian army is not very proficient in Western weapons. At present, the number of assistance sorties by the United States transport aircraft has reached more than 400)
The time and initiative are on the Russian side, which starts from the Crimea Peninsula. War preparations were made at the beginning of the crisis. His defensive posture is also conducive to consuming Ukraine's effective forces. Equipment may still be available from the United States, but personnel cannot be regenerated. One day the Americans feel that they are also very tight, and Ukraine cannot provide much in return (any transaction comes with a price). Then foreign aid will completely dry up, and the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine will be a sudden collapse of the Ukrainian army. Friends who like this article, please share and forward it. If you have any interesting insights, please leave a message below for discussion! (This article is part of the series of Uncle Yi’s Talking about the World. For those who are interested, please use WeChat to search the official account: Zhizhidi, and watch all the original articles in the series of Uncle Yi’s Talking about the World)
